It's always amazing what a little sunshine will do. At early afternoon, central Alabama is enjoying full sun while residents of northwest Alabama are experiencing some cirrus clouds and low clouds have been especially slow to clear the southeast corner of the state. The result looked something like this:
lower 50s across the Tennessee Valley
mid and upper 50s in central Alabama (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Montgomery)
around 60 in southwest Alabama
around 50 (under the low clouds) in southeast Alabama

The latest 12Z GFS model run continued to forecast a dry and cool pattern for Alabama through mid-week as surface high pressure settles into Texas. With the high centered just to our west we should see good radiational cooling on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. A moderation in temperatures occurs toward the end of the week as the surface high migrates eastward. Still looks like moisture will increase late Friday and into Saturday with a cold front coming through Alabama on Christmas day with chances for rain and a reinforcing shot of cold air. The 12Z run even suggests some wrap-around snow flurries which does not usually result in any kind of signficant or measurable snow.

After another couple of days of moderating temperatures, the GFS has some interesting developments toward the last couple of days of 2006. But we all know that we really can't put much faith in model projections that far out. So we'll just watch those trends and see if we can conjure up the right recipe for some winter weather as we enter 2006.

-Brian-

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Sticking the James Spann's naming convention, Bob has now passed us with little more than clouds and some sprinkles yesterday and last night. Yesterday was quite the cold, gray winter-like day with temperatures remaining steady in the 40s. Clouds still linger this morning across southeast Alabama but those should be exiting the state as the day wears on. High cirrus clouds to our west but we should see a good deal of sunshine today - nice change from the dreary day yesterday.

The next week is shaping up to be dry for north and central Alabama. High pressure settles in to our west. By Monday night and Tuesday we could see a good radiational cooling night with lows dropping into the mid 20s. With the high positioned over east Texas, any development of a surface low in the Gulf will be too far south to affect us. The low does develop a bit further east - the one named Hope - promising a good rain for much of Florida.

The high slides to our east as we get to the end of the week with moisture returning into Texas. This sets the stage for moderation in our temperatures with a good liklihood that we'll see temperatures reach seasonal normals or possible just above, perhaps pushing the 60 degree mark today the end of the week.

But Christmas eve promises a return to wet weather as the eastern US trough sharpens once again and a cold front moves through Alabama. This is a complete flip-flop from yesterday's GFS model run, so I wouldn't count on this solution just yet. This is a week out and a lot can change before then especially as related to timing.

I noted that the NAO is forecast to go neutral for the last days of December, so the GFS forecast of a moderating temperatures seems consistent.

Off to church this morning - my week to usher. Hope you have a chance to attend the church of your choice. God bless and have a great week.

-Brian-