For many, many years, residents of the little town of Codell, Kansas stayed close to their “fraidy holes,” storm cellars and caves when May 20th rolled around. It was a habit that was very understandable.

It seemed that Mother Nature was out to get the small town in the years just before 1920. You see, Codell had been struck by tornadoes on May 20th, for three straight years in 1916, 1917 and 1918. Amazingly, each of the tornadoes occurred at about the same time, at 7 p.m., 6:15 p.m. and 7:18 p.m. respectively.

In 1916, an F2 tornado passed just south and east of the town. Mainly farms were damaged along the F2 twister’s 15 mile path and no one was injured.

In 1917, the tornado was larger, but still passed over rural land and only a few ranches were damaged. The 1918 tornado was a different story. The F4 tornado struck some of the same farms that had been hit by the 1917 storm, including a ranch on the Saline River where 5 people died in a home that had been damaged in 1917. The tornado then fell with fury on the town of Codell where many buildings were damaged. No one was killed in Codell by the F4, probably due to the town’s past history. 9 people were killed along the 60 mile path.

Unbelievably, to this date, no other tornado has visited the town of Codell.

This was the scope of the Centreville National Weather Service radar on May 27, 1973, shortly before an F4 tornado destroyed the radar facility and much of the town of Brent. A total of seven people were killed along the path of the tornado, which first touched down at Greensboro, and finally lifted in East Alabama on the slope of Mt. Cheaha.



Thanks to John Brasher for this image... check out his site on the 1973 Brent tornado here. I will write much more about this event as the anniversary draws closer!

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

As I write this a small cluster of thunderstorms is moving through the northwest part of the state, over Marion and Franklin counties. These storms, and any others that form this evening, will move from northwest to southeast. But, with surface dewpoints only in the 40s, it is hard to imagine these things holding together, or even becoming severe. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for the far northern part of Alabama this evening, but many neighborhoods will stay dry.

TOMORROW: Once again, SPC has a slight risk of severe storms up for about the northern third of Alabama. A surface boundary will be in the area providing some low level convergence, but a capping inversion and the lack of really deep surface moisture will be a big limiting factor. Any storm that can form late tomorrow can produce gusty winds. The WRF model continues to be pretty aggressive in developing a band of showers and storms over the north and central part of the state tomorrow afternoon.

Bottom line is that we will continue to mention isolated storms late tomorrow afternoon and into the evening, but many spots will be dry.

Temperatures will rise well into the 80s tomorrow; in fact the GFS MOS is printing 90 for Birmingham. The NAM has a high of 85, and is probably closer to being correct.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Warm weather continues, and any showers or storms should be very scarce on these two days as the air aloft becomes warmer. You really can't rule out a brief shower or storm during the late afternoon hours, but most likely they will be near the Tennessee border.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: A few scattered afternoon showers and storms will be possible during the middle of next week as surface moisture increases and the instability goes up as well. Afternoon temperatures will continue to peak in the 80s.

LONG RANGE: The 384 hour GFS, valid June 4, develops a tropical storm around the tip of the Yucatan peninsula, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Before you get too excited, remember this is way out there in VOODOO land, and it will probably be gone on the next run. But, we note there will be a rather large anticyclone aloft over the Gulf of Mexico, and SSTs in the southern Gulf have reached 80 degrees (F). Buoy 42003, which is 260 nm south of Panama City, is now reporting a sea water temperature of 82 degrees.

So, an early season tropical storm is not out of the question... we will be watching.

My next map discussion video will come Monday morning by 7:00 a.m... Brian Peters will have the updates here over the weekend! Have a great weekend... spend some quality time with your family and share some laughs together!

The Friday morning map discussion is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

The video is also available via iTunes...

COOL SNAP OVER: After 13 days in a row with temperatures below 80, we reached 84 yesterday in Birmingham to break the streak. That was 6 degrees warmer than forecast, so I give myself a "D" on the temperature forecast. But, the dewpoints remain fairly low so it was a comfortable 84.

TODAY/TOMORROW: Temperatures will rise well into the 80s. Looks like we will need to mention the chance of isolated thunderstorms both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon as well. When we say isolated, that means the storms will be few and far between, and most neighborhoods will be dry. However, where the storms form they could be strong to severe, especially over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama. The best chance of a storm will come from about 4:00 p.m. until 7:00 p.m.

Late last night, it looked like the chance of an afternoon storm was so small it wasn't worth the mention tomorrow. But the WRF model run up at the NASA Short Term Prediction Research and Transition Center in Huntsville shows a band of thunderstorms late tomorrow over north-central Alabama, which is enough evidence for me. I should mention, however, that the NAM and the GFS are basically dry as a bone.

So... again, we will mention isolated afternoon storms today and tomorrow, but most spots won't get any rain.

We should mention SPC has a slight risk of severe weather for the Tennessee Valley today, and for the northern third of the state tomorrow. See the video for more details.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: I guess we might consider isolated afternoon storms on these days as well, but warmer air aloft should keep a lid on any convection. Both of these days look dry and warm for now.

NEXT WEEK: The 00Z GFS shows enough low level moisture for "scattered afternoon showers and storms" by the middle of the week, very typical for late May in Alabama. Highs will be in the 80s, and humidity levels will be much higher as dewpoints soar into the 60s.

LONG RANGE: Early June should begin with warm and humid weather, and the chance of daily afternoon airmass thunderstorms. There is some hint at a northeast U.S. trough around June 2-3 that might drive a cold front through here, but cold front passages become increasingly rare in June here in Alabama. They can happen, but just not that often. Of course, by the time you get to July and August you can't buy a good cold front here.

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!