The second day in Winfield . . .

So we headed to Wichita to spend the night after our busted chase day in Winfield. Wichita was refreshing, as we actually had a good selection of restaurants close to our hotel. Most of the places we stayed in up to that point had a fairly limited selection of places to eat within easy walking distance, so everyone was upbeat about getting some better food. Everyone ate well, and the forecast still called for some possible storm action in SE Kansas for the next day.

The next morning, day 8 (May 21), we found out that we would be heading back to Winfield City Park. The setup basically looked the same as the day before, except the cap was weaker, and we were hopeful that this would mean it was showtime. We stopped at Wal-Mart on the way out of Wichita, and I decided to purchase a fishing rod and reel combo (for $15). That ended up being a good idea, as the one tiny bream I caught in the Winfield moat was the highlight of the day. Once again, no storms popped up anywhere. The cap was weaker, but clouds that moved through during the afternoon limited daytime heating and there was not enough energy for any storms to form.

Another bust day in Winfield park dampened the spirits of most everyone. We were beginning to wonder if we'd ever see anything. We still had some hope, though, as the models were showing a short wave moving across the region over the next few days. In fact, the leaders of the chase all agreed that our best chance of seeing some good storms would come in a couple of days. So, we headed back to Salina to stay for the night in order to position ourselves for some possible storms in eastern Colorado the next day.

Next time . . . our first true chase day . . .

Drew McCombs
ABC 33/40 Weather Intern
abc3340wx2@gmail.com

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is available on the web, and on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

RADAR UPDATE: You can almost count the number of showers across Alabama right now on one hand. Any showers this evening will end soon, and the weather here will remain dry and dusty through mid-week.

HEATING UP: Look for mid 90s in many areas tomorrow and Wednesday with lots of summer sun and a very dry ground below. Any afternoon showers will be very isolated, and most likely, non existent.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: We will bring in a risk of a few isolated afternoon showers or storms on Thursday and Friday, but you know the story; many neighborhoods will be dry.

WEEKEND: The air will be a tad more unstable over the weekend, so the chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms will be in the forecast, otherwise partly sunny weather on Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures near 90 in most places.

LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to suggest the hottest weather in the nation for the end of June and the first week of July will be over the southwest U.S.... while the weather here should be fairly routine for summer. Highs around 90, some risk of scattered "hit and miss" afternoon showers and storms on a daily basis. There continues to be some hint of a mean trough over the Great Lakes, with a general weakness in the upper ridge here across the Deep South.

TROPICS: We will keep an eye on a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean; no sign of organization now as the system moves to the west. We will keep an eye on it...

We will be recording a new WeatherBrains podcast tonight... it should be posted early tomorrow morning. I will post a note here when it is on iTunes. The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

Only a handful of showers across North Central Alabama at mid-afternoon. Moving east.

James Spann will be along soon for a complete afternoon video and text discussion.

ALABAMA
A moderate to heavy thunderstorm continues to move east near I-20 in East Alabama. At 12:30 pm, it was over the north edge of Talladega County near Lincoln. Moving east toward Anniston-Oxford. May have weakened just a bit. Other lighter ones back into Central St. Clair County. Scattered lighter showers developing to the west across Lamar, Fayette and Walker County. Everything moving east. Everybody rooting for rain. Vic Bell, ABC 33/40 weather watcher in Black Creek (NE Etowah County) reports only 1.67 inches in the last 40 days. That is not nearly enough for growing season. Especially since 1.18 inches of that amount fell on one day about 17 days ago.

MISSISSIPPI COAST
Scott, in Ocean Springs, reports first rain in almost a month.

SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
Over 6 inches of rain in Lake Charles this morning.

SOUTHEAST TEXAS
The flash-flooding there today is major. Some folks on apartment rooftops awaiting rescue--a flash-back to Katrina and New Orleans. As much as 11 inches of rain today in just a few hours just SE of Houston.

NORTHERN ARIZONA
Raging fires in scenic Oak Creek Canyon south of Flagstaff. Major.

WAY FAR AWAY
Abu Hamed in the Sudan reporting 113 degrees with widespread dust and relative humidity only 7 percent. How would you like to be there?

A small cluster of showers has developed near I-20 about midway between Birmingham and Anniston. Mostly just south of I-20 near Pell City. First ones of the day.

Another small isolated shower on the SW flank of Smith Lake near the Walker-Winston County line.

At least that proves some moisture is available.

Please join me in doing a rain dance. Little Miss Molly and I did one just as the sun ball was rising this morning.

Well, that may not be the best word to use. Last night an impressive line of showers and thunderstorms moved into West and NW Alabama holding promise for some decent rainfall amounts.

Two things said no. After dark cooling and more stable air the further east the line moved.

At 8:30 this morning, there was not a single shower in the state.

We believe that some fairly good amounts fell last night where there were no rain gages. These are the only Alabama amounts we have so far:

0.42 at Hamilton (Skycam)
0.11 at Huntsville
0.12 at Meridianville
0.20 at Decatur Airport
0.01 at Muscle Shoals (We are skeptical of that amount)
0.00 (zip, none) at Tuscaloosa and Birmingham

MISSISSIPPI GOT A BETTER DEAL
0.67 at Columbus Air Force Base
0.67 at Greenville (in the Mississippi Delta)
0.86 at Hattisburg (South Mississippi)

BACK IN ALABAMA: CLAY (NE JEFFERSON COUNTY)
0.89 so far this month
23.46 for 2006 so far
4.00 is their approxmate deficiency
30.51 so far this year at Birmingham, not far away
3.05 is the Birmingham excess

DEMOPOLIS
Don Fleming, the 3340 weather watcher advises that a mere 0.14 has fallen in that West Alabama city so far this month and 24.47 so far this year.

ORANGE BEACH
I like the wording from 3340 weather watcher, Lewis Cullen. He reported one drop per square foot Sunday meaning, of course, a trace.

BUT HOW ABOUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS
3.66 at Beaumont in the last 24 hours
3.76 at Bush Airport, Houston
8.23 at Hobby Airport, Houston

Big cluster of strong storms with heavy rain continues in that area this morning.

The Monday morning map discussion video is on web, and also available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

While some folks over Northwest Alabama saw a healthy shower last night (Hamilton had a little over one-half inch of rain), many Alabama lawns remain parched. We have to consider these points as we write these discussions, and you read them:

*Widespread rain is not very common in Alabama during the summer. Even on days when the radar is active, the showers and storms are scattered. And, scattered is the key word.

*Scattered showers and storms means rainfall distribution is very uneven; some yards might get one inch of rain, others remain dry as a bone. Such is the nature of summer rain across the Deep South.

*It is best not to forecast any big increase in rain in the middle of a long dry spell or drought. Those things tend to be self-sustaining to some degree.

So, while we do have scattered showers and storms in the forecast today, remember this is not the kind of long, soaking, widespread rain we need. Usually in summer the only hope for that is a tropical system. But, multuple consecutive days of scattered showers and storms can help as well.

ON THE MAPS: An upper trough is passing north of Alabama today, and a weak upper low is southwest of the state, near the Texas/Louisiana border. Slightly colder aloft today between these two systems should mean at least a chance of scattered showers and storms.

MID-WEEK: Our weather should be hot and mostly dry tomorrow through Thursday as heights go up. Temperatures should reach the mid 90s in many areas with a good deal of sunshine and dry soil. Any afternoon showers should be scarce.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms will be going up by Friday and the weekend as another trough develops to the north, and a weak surface front approaches. Nothing widespread, but again a few front yards will have a chance of a shower on a daily basis during the afternoon and evening hours.

LONG RANGE: The GFS is suggesting the hottest weather in the nation during late June and early July will be over the southwestern states. And, a mean upper trough shows up from the Great Lakes southwest to the Tennessee Valley. Hopefully this will mean a daily chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms here, and maybe even a day or two with numerous showers.

TROPICS: A nice tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands this morning. This thing might have some chance of getting its act together over the Caribbean in coming days... we will keep an eye on it.

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy your Monday!