The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

RITA: Hot and dry weather here in Alabama again today, and that is one of the main reasons we don't expect Rita to threaten the central Gulf coast. The upper ridge responsible for the hot and dry weather should keep Rita on a westward track in the central Gulf of Mexico. Then, as the western side of the ridge breaks down later in the week, a turn to the northwest begins and Rita will be heading for the upper Texas coast.

In the short term, there is a very real chance Rita will be a major, dangerous hurricane over the Florida Keys in about 36 hours. It should remain a large and dangerous storm over the Gulf of Mexico. Keep in mind there have been no tropical systems over the northwest Gulf of Mexico this season, and no upwelling. Rita could give Katrina a run for the money on intensity at the time of landfall.

There is actually very good model agreement now; models along with the official NHC track take Rita to a point near Galveston on Friday night or early Saturday. Everyone in Galveston and Houston will need to begin preparations soon if this track holds, and we think it will.

The moisture from Rita will begin to curve to the east early next week, and we just might see some showers and storms around here Monday or Tuesday of next week. We will take whatever we can get.

PHILIPPE: A northward moving hurricane in the Atlantic; this one should be east of Bermuda by the weekend. No threat to the U.S. mainland.

SHORT TERM: A few isolated showers could pop up late tomorrow or Wednesday, but the chance of rain looks so small right now it is barely worth mentioning in the forecast package. Afternoon temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

LONG TERM: The 12z GFS shows a very promising long wave trough over the eastern U.S. a few day into October, which should bring the coolest weather so far this season. That is the one that might get a few spots into the upper 40s. Bring it on!

Sure enjoyed the visit to Regency Pointe in Rainbow City today... great crowd and a very nice lunch!

Because of low levels on Coosa River reservoirs, weekend recreational releases of water from Jordan Dam are being suspended the weekend of Sept. 24-25.

The low water levels on Coosa reservoirs are the result of little rain and increased demand for hydroelectric power over more than two weeks of unseasonably warm weather. Reservoirs on the Warrior and Tallapoosa rivers are experiencing similar low water conditions.

The weekend releases below Jordan Dam normally take place from mid June until the end of October. The releases are designed to accommodate kayakers and other water enthusiasts.

Depending on conditions along the Coosa, the recreational releases could be resumed at a later date. The availability of water for releases will be assessed weekly.

People with boats and other water-related equipment and facilities should always be alert to conditions on Alabama Power reservoirs, and take the necessary steps to protect their property.

For updated information about lake levels, call Alabama Power's automated Reservoir Information System at 1-800-LAKES-11 (1-800-525-3711).

Tropical Storm Rita continues to intensify and, according to the 2 pm, EDT advisory she is almost a hurricane. Sustained winds were 70 mph.

She coud become a hurricane at any minute. Here is a link to all the latest advisories about her:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

But here are some extra notes:

* She should pass very near Key West late Tuesday
* She will continue west and NW across the heart of the Gulf of Mexico
* NHC official track forecast suggests landfall early Saturday Upper Texas Coast
* Landfall could be near Galveston according to that
* That would, of course, spell trouble for Galveston-Houston
* But, other hurricane models shifted her landfall further northward (Scan down to the post by James Spann showing that)
* Some even point to the Louisiana Coast, one even directly at New Orleans
* At least one hints somewhere near the Mississippi-Alabama border
* Mandatory evacuations for the Florida Keys, including Key West
* Not much going on yet in South Florida although brisk east and NE winds are increasing, gusting to around 30 mph around 2 pm.

* Best information on future track, probably the official track forecast. However, an upper level low pressure through may enter the picture late this week. Which means what?
* It means that all possibilities must be considered.
* Will truly be a fingernail-biting week of watching and waiting.

Rita is still a tropical storm but she is already causing great concern about her future. It appears she will grow into a major hurricane after getting in the Gulf of Mexico.

Here is a link to all the latest advisories about her:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

But here are some extra notes:

* She should pass very near Key West late Tuesday
* She will continue west and NW across the heart of the Gulf of Mexico
* NHC official track forecast suggests landfall early Saturday Upper Texas Coast
* Landfall could be near Galveston according to that
* That would, of course, spell trouble for Galveston-Houston
* But, other hurricane models shifted her landfall further northward (Scan down to the post by James Spann showing that)
* Some even point to the Louisiana Coast, one even directly at New Orleans
* At least one hints somewhere near the Mississippi-Alabama border
* Mandatory evacuations for the Florida Keys, including Key West
* Not much going on yet in South Florida These late morning spot reports:

Key West Airport...sunny, wind NE, gusts 23 mph
Miami...wind NE with gusts to 25
Everglades City...wind north, gusts 20

* Best information on future track, probably the official track forecast. However, an upper level low pressure through may enter the picture late this week. Which means what?
* It means that all possibilities must be considered.
* Will truly be a fingernail-biting week of watching and waiting.

Our posts are definately not intended to alwarm you. Instead our goal in life is to keep you informed as well as possible.

Life goes on...

The 12Z models are shifting the track of Rita even more to the right:



The threat is increasing for the upper Texas and western Louisiana Gulf coast. Stay tuned...

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

We have tropical trouble this morning. Hurricane Philippe is moving north/northwest, and is passing east of the Leeward Islands this morning. This one should remain out at sea, and will be southeast of Bermuda by Friday night or Saturday. So... we will focus most of our attention on:

RITA: Latest recon data shows 997 mb and max flight level winds of 64 knots in the northern quadrant. Looks likes we are about to have a hurricane on our hands. Latest NHC track takes Rita just south of Key West late tomorrow night, and hurricane warnings remain in effect for the Keys where evacuations continue this morning.

Rita will roll through the southern half of the Gulf, and should reach major hurricane status.

That NHC track puts Rita into the Texas coast near Corpus Christi late Friday night or early Saturday. However, the NHC track is actually an outlier to the left as most models want to take the system to near Galveston. The FSU MM5 actually points Rita to the Louisiana coast (but well west of New Orleans). This will be a long week of waiting and watching along the Texas coast.

The GFS suggests the big rain shield from Rita will remain west of Alabama once the system is inland. This would change if by chance there is a Louisiana landfall.

AROUND HERE: The September heat wave continues today with 500 mb heights of 5940 meters or higher in place meaning highs in the low 90s for most places. Maybe even mid 90s in spots. A weak front drifts down here by mid-week, so a few isolated showers are possible late tomorrow into Wednesday. But once again beneficial rain is not likely. The end of the week should be mostly dry, but there could be enough moisture for isolated showers.

Birmingham's rain total for the month is only 0.15", and our deficit for the year has grown to 1.12".

THE LONG RANGE: The GFS (00Z run) is now advertising a long wave trough over the central U.S. in early October, with the coldest air of the season behind it. We sure can be optimistic some of that colder air reaches Alabama in the October 2-4 time frame.

Headed out to Etowah county this morning for a speech... will be back in the office for the afternoon update, which will be posted by 3:30 p.m...