I have heard many theories from various people about what kind of winter we are going to have. So, it must be time to throw in a quick opinion from our weather office.

First off, nobody knows what the winter will bring. Meteorologists, amateur weather observers, old geezers who watch hornets nests and cow fur, the “Farmers Almanac”; you name it. There is not much skill in a seasonal outlook, no matter what people claim and what you hear. Having said that...

*Does a hot summer mean we have a cold winter ahead? Let me share a direct quote on this from the great Alabama weather legend, J.B. Elliott: “We have been asked, does that mean we will have a real cold winter? No connection. I once did an extensive study of Birmingham records going back to the mid-1880s and I could find no evidence that a hot summer automatically was followed by a cold winter, etc.” Enough said on that subject.

*Does the lack of hurricanes mean a cold winter? Lets not forget the hurricane season is far from over. And, we have had a number of big hurricanes this year, but that have been open Atlantic systems. But, the lack of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico is now being tied by some to a weak El Nino cycle, which was officially declared “in progress” by NOAA last week. Gary Petti, a former Meteorologist-In-Charge of the Birmingham NWS office, did an excellent bit of research on the impact of an El Nino cycle on Alabama back in 1997 (when a fairly strong El Nino was in progress). His conclusion that most winters during and just following an El Nino cycle were a little warmer than normal, featured little snow, but lots and lots of rain. And, active spring severe weather seasons were likely the following year.

Read Gary's paper here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/research/Elnino/el_nino.php

*We are statically overdue for a cold winter, and some type of ice storm. Our last major ice storm in Central Alabama was in January 1982, and the last winter that featured zero degree weather was the 1989-1990 season (the worst part of that winter was December 22-25, 1989, when the mercury dropped into the -5 to zero degree range across the northern half of Alabama). Forget the “global warming” hype, it can be very cold here and one year our luck will run out. Going into 2006, we knew we were long overdue for a hot summer, and look what happened.

*The current upper air pattern: There has been a mean upper air trough over the eastern U.S. for the past couple of months, and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been strongly negative since mid-July. If this pattern persists through winter, it would mean frequent shots of cold air.

As you can see from the notes above, there are plenty of conflicting signals for the coming season. If the current El Nino cycle remains weak, I think this winter will be colder than normal and might feature a few good winter storm threats. However, if the El Nino is strong, the winter would most likely feature no super cold air and lots of rain. I think this the key, so lets keep an eye on it. Here is the NOAA El Nino status page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html

Lets also watch the SOI (southern oscillation index)... when the SOI is strongly negative that signals a pretty decent El Nino:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/figt2.gif

As always, time will be the only way to tell what will happen this winter, but all of us in the weather office will be waiting, and watching!

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

The coolest air so far this season continues to flow into Alabama on brisk northwest winds this afternoon. Checking our SKYCAM site at Cheaha State Park (Alabama's highest point just south of Anniston), we are showing 72 degrees with a cobalt blue sky. The high on the big mountain today so far is only 72.

We are still projecting an average low of 50 degrees by daybreak tomorrow, but of course the range will probably be from abour 45 in the cooler valleys to 55 on the ridgetops. Thursday morning should be about 2 or 3 degrees cooler in most places.

QUICK CHANGES BY FRIDAY: Moist air will surge northward on Friday, and we will bring back a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. The system responsible for the rain opportunity will be weakening, however, as it moves from the plains toward the Great Lakes. This will mean no significant chance of severe weather, and probably no especially heavy rain. But, there is no doubt some high school football fans will have to dodge raindrops for the first time this season Friday night.

THE WEEKEND: A surface front will stall northwest of Alabama as it becomes parallel to the upper air winds, and we will have to maintain a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday with warm and humid conditions. No total wash-out, but a shower or storm will be possible at just about any time over the weekend. Highs will be in the 80s, and dewpoints will stay well up in the 60s (quite a contrast to the continental Polar air rolling in here this evening).

NEXT WEEK: The GFS finally moves dry air back in here during the day Monday. A stray shower will be possible Monday morning, but we should be in sunshine by Monday afternoon, and at this point the middle part of next week looks dry.

LONG RANGE: Check out the video today and see the 12Z GFS output for October 1. If that happens to be correct, that setup could bring a risk of severe weather, and get us down in the 30s after the upper trough passes. But, as we all know, that is in voodoo land and there is no skill in a specific forecast that far in advance.

TROPICAL: Hurricanes Gordon and Helene will remain far out at sea, and the systems that show up on the GFS remain open Atlantic storms for the next two weeks.

LOTS OF WEATHER STORIES: Be sure and bookmark our sister site:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

Quite a collection of late breaking weather news. And, if you register you can submit and vote on stories to determine which ones make the "front page".

WEATHERBRAINS: This week's episode is really a good one since I am not on it!

http://www.weatherbrains.com/

David, Jason, and J.B. did a great job.

Once again, I will try to post some thoughts on the coming winter season here on the blog by 9:30 or 10:00 tonight. The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

The dew point is one of the weather measurements that I pay very close attention to. It is a better indication of how dry the air is instead of the relative humidity...It is also a key indicator in forecasting nighttime low temperatures.

Enough of that...here comes the lower (translation: enjoyable) dew points.

At mid-morning the southward moving cold front appeared to be near the Prattville exit on Interstate 65 south--moving into the Montgomery area. The dew points were still between 70-73 over South Alabama but were between 53 and 55 over the North where a nice north breeze made it feel like indoor air-conditioning.

Up over Missouri and North Arkansas, the dew point was in the 40s.

Only Extreme Southeast Alabama still getting showers.

The line of showers that moved through with the cold front overnight brought some more good rain amounts. It is great that in the last 24 hours, many parts of Alabama got good rainfall amounts separated by a number of hours. It is more beneficial that way.

We need to stockpile all the rain that we can as we approach our traditionally driest time of the year--especially October. We can have some very severe droughts in autumn.

ONE OF OUR WORST DROUGHTS
It happened in late 1924. Would you believe that Birmingham got a mere 0.01 rainfall between September 29 and December 4. That is over two months (9 weeks) that it did not rain enough to wet the sidewalk.

SOME RAINFALL FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS--MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT
1.04 inches at Birmingham Airport
1.13 at Tuscaloosa Airport
1.94 in Troy
0.60 at Anniston Airport
1.08 in DeSoto State Park
1.68 in Blountsville
2.10 at Blount Springs
1.53 at Colvin Gap (along Calhoun-Etowah County line)
1.46 at Oak Grove (West Jefferson County)
2.10 in Oneonta
1.03 at Rock Run (Cherokee County)
0.98 at Roanoke
1.25 at Steele (Extreme North St.Clair County)
1.10 at Holt Dam (East side of Tuscaloosa)
1.05 at Trafford (NE Jefferson)
0.94 at Wadley
0.98 at Jordon Dam

Those amounts are a representive sampling. Dozens of other communities received good amounts.

FINAL NOTES
Out walking early this morning...the atmosphere was sharp and clear. Everything so fresh and green--made me think of the Minnesota North Woods. Never been there but it is high on my list. Have been deep into Wisconsin. We even heard two old crows talking to each other this morning. Maybe they have been in hiding till it cools.

James is going to come up with a winter outlook that will be posted here soon. Looking forward to that. We have been asked about that a lot lately. I was standing in the Poptart isle at a local supermarket last week (admiring and smiling but not touching or buying) A person that knew me passed by and asked about the winter. Lots of interest.

WeatherBrains episode 34, is on the web and available on iTunes:

http://www.weatherbrains.com/

WeatherBrains is our weekly 30 minute podcast by and for weather geeks...

In this week's episode:

- Is summer over, or could there be another final warm spell for central Alabama this year? J.B. Elliott and Jason Simpson share their thoughts on the weather ahead;

- Tropical update: We'll have the latest on the Atlantic hurricane season;

- Golden Apple Award: Jason describes a new program by ABC 33/40 to recognize the hard work of Alabama teachers;

- A WeatherBrains Extra: Colorado Campout ... Just back from ten days of tent camping in the Colorado Rockies, Birmingham resident Mickey Gerontakis knew the weather could be unpredictable--and it was. Mickey tells David Black about his elk hunting adventure in the
mountains;

- The Havana Junction Heatwave: Is J.B. Elliott really a powerhouse player on the gridiron?

A weekend football gathering at Jason Simpson's place catches J.B. showing off his athletic prowess...

Join Jason Simpson, JB Elliott and David Black...

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Back in the home office this morning after a very nice visit to the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Stayed at the Gaylord Texan Resort; very nice accomodations! This is the Texas version of the Opryland Resort in Nashville, and is located up in Grapevine (just north of DFW Airport). About the only negative thing was the Internet access; no wi-fi, and the upload speeds in the room (they did have wired broadband) was about dial-up speed. Download speed was almost 10 mbps, lightning fast, but for some reason they cut the upload speed down to almost nothing. Not good for those of us who have to transfer large files. And, no wi-fi meant no Internet access in the meeting rooms and convention area. But, other than that, what a great place for a family vacation stop.

THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: Our front is pushing through central Alabama as I write this, and all of the showers should be out of the state by mid-morning. The sky will clear, and a fresh northwest breeze will bring in the coolest air so far this season. We expect to be near 50 degrees early tomorrow morning, and in the upper 40s early Thursday morning. The sky tomorrow and Thursday will feature brilliant sunshine. Can't beat it.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS has changed its tune since my last discussion yesterday morning. Instead of a strong short wave rolling through here with a chance of severe storms, the GFS now keeps a ridge on the Gulf Coast, and dampens out the short wave, meaning the front will hang up just north of Alabama. So... what does this mean for the weekend?

We will still bring in the chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night as moisture surges back into the state, and the front approaches from the northwest. High school football fans will have to dodge raindrops this week. Then, for both Saturday and Sunday we will mention scattered showers and thunderstorms as the front remains north of the state. It also means warm and muggy conditions; highs in the 80s with dewpoints up in the mid to upper 60s. A stalled front can mean heavy rain and possibly flash flooding, but the GFS keeps the heaviest rain over the weekend a tad north of here, over Tennessee. We will sure keep an eye on it.

The GFS keeps a chance of rain on Monday of next week before drier air finally noses in here by Tuesday, a week from today.

TROPICS: Hurricane Gordon is headed for Portgual, and Hurricane Helene is a recurving storm in the middle of the Atlantic. No threat to the U.S. mainland at all.

LONG RANGE: I have a big batch of e-mail asking me for my opinion on the coming winter season... I will write more about this tonight here on the blog. Lots of folks are trying to link the hot and dry summer to a certain type of winter, and the lack of Gulf hurricanes to a certain type of winter. I would use caution here... but watch for my post sometime around 9:30 or 10:00 tonight.

Thanks to J.B. for writing the morning forecast package for me this morning (the one posted over on the seven day discussion and forecast page)... and to John Oldshue for covering the TV shift last night. Everything gets back to normal today.... I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!

This is a story about all-time record high temperatures over the entire nation. (and note a correction at the end of this story)

I think it is extremely interesting that it has been as hot in Alaska as in Hawaii and that so many states well to the north of Alabama have been hotter than we have.

Another little interesting fact…of the 50 states, only 2 recorded their all-time high temperature outside the normal summer months of June, July and August. Alabama was one of those as we baked in 112-degree heat in Centreville on September 5, 1925. The other one is Hawaii, their all-time high came in 1931 on April 27 with 100 at Pahala.

Ironically, the all-time high for Alaska was 100 at Ft. Yukon way up in North Alaska north of the Brooks Range.

Of the 50 states, these little tidbits:
*5 states had their hottest ever in the month of June
*35 states set their records in July
*9 states chose August
*1 state had September (Alabama)
*1 state had April (Hawaii)

A lot of states had all-time high temperatures well above Alabama’s record. For example, in Idaho it was 118 at Orofino on July 28, 1934. The all-time highs for Montana and Illinois was 117, in Indiana, the record is 116 and in Nebraska 118. Even Minnesota has been hotter than Alabama with 114.
Most of the record heat in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest came during the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s, which in my opinion is one of the most depressing and tragic weather events in the history of our great nation.

NOTE
Thanks to Danny Hill for sending me a correction about North Carolina. For years, their all time high was in September but that was changed on August 21, 1983 when Fayetteville scorched in 110-degree heat.

A line of showers was across NW Alabama late tonight and that signals the arrival of a cold front.

At 11:10 pm, the line of showers was along the Huntsville-Double Springs-Sulligent line and then down into Central Mississippi.

Some of the showers in the line are briefly heavy but the line is rather narrow. Most of the lightning is in the south part of the line in Eastern Mississippi.