Winter “officially” begins tomorrow at 12:35 p.m. CST. This is the moment when the earth is at a point in its orbit where the northern hemisphere is most inclined away from the Sun. This causes the Sun to appear at its farthest below the celestial equator. Solstice is a Latin borrowing and means "sun stand", referring to the appearance that the Sun's noontime elevation change stops its progress, either northerly or southerly.

Wednesday is the shortest day and the longest night of the year. In terms of weather, most meteorologists consider the winter season the months of December, January, and February (meteorological winter).
Based on average temperatures, the coldest weather in Alabama comes from January 5 through January 26 when our “normal” low is 32 degrees. High temperatures during that stretch are in the low 50s. But we have to remember, those are simply averages and don’t really reflect sensible weather. For example, the coldest temperature on record here was seen on February 13, 1899 when the mercury reached ten degrees below zero. And, our biggest snow came during the “Blizzard of ‘93” when 13 inches fell on March 13-14, 1993. These two events were well past that “coldest window” from January 5-26.

So, what is ahead for the rest of the winter? Sure seems like a pattern is setting up that favors colder than normal temperatures for the eastern third of the nation (including Alabama and the southeast U.S.). And, with an active southern stream in place you have to think there will be a few threats for snow or ice along the way. That isn’t very unusual, one or two winter weather threats can be expected around here most seasons. Of course, not all threats become real events. But you have to get the idea we need to settle in for a long winter season of fun and games here in the weather office!

And, yes, we have been watching the GFS in the last two runs showing the rain to snow setup over the coming Christmas weekend. Could this really happen? Stay tuned... I will go through this possibility on the morning map video discussion and blog post in a few hours. It will be up by 6:30 a.m.!

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

First off, as usual the GFS MOS for today was way too warm. It has the usual 50s and 30s. The temperature as I write this in Huntsville is only 40 degrees, and Birmingham is peaking at 47. No 50s today. And, no 50s tomorrow or Wednesday.

HOPE: The system we named "Hope" a week ago is producing a fairly large area of light snow over parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Oklahoma City is reporting light snow and 28 degrees right now. Winter weather advisories are in effect for that region. Flurries have also been reported in Arkansas today.

Hope will move across Alabama tomorrow night, and will bring a batch of clouds. More than likely, most of the light snow will not reach the ground due to the lack of moisture. I fully expect a few families to report light snow or flurries tomorrow night, but it should not amount to much. Too bad the moisture is cut off; that is a nice little short wave.

COLD NIGHTS: We are looking at mid 20s in here the next couple of nights. Colder spots will do low 20s... we might even hear of teens in isolated pockets across north Alabama. We will have a hard time reaching the mid 40s tomorrow afternoon. Forgot those MOS products.

We do expect a warm-up at the end of the week... mid to upper 50s are likely by Friday and Saturday.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: A cold front will bring the chance of a little light rain in here late Saturday and Saturday night, but it doesn't look like a major rain producer. Colder air returns on Christmas day... looks like we hold in the 40s all day. The pattern looks fairly cold for much of the week between Christmas and New Years Day.

Will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. Once again, if you are headed out of town be safe and have a WONDERFUL Christmas!

Are you dreaming of a White Christmas? It is a dream that many Alabamians share but have never seen. The precise definition of a White Christmas is to have one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.

Here in Birmingham, in the nearly one hundred years that weather records have been kept, there has never been a White Christmas in the classic definition. We came close in 1985, when a few snow flurries left a dusting on the ground. It was not enough to measure, however. A trace of snow has fallen on December 24th or 25th eight other times in Birmingham, the last time in 1995. On December 22, 1929, 5.5 inches of snow fell on the city. There was still snow on the ground on Christmas Eve, but it was mostly gone by Christmas Day.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, the probability of a White Christmas is officially zero at Birmingham, Anniston and Tuscaloosa. The probability at Huntsville is 3% and 7% at Muscle Shoals.

You might wonder where you might have the best chance to experience a White Christmas in the United States statistically. Officially, it is Stampede Pass, Washington. The chance there is 100%. In fact, there is a 100% probability that you will see a five inch snow there on Christmas morning and a 96% chance for a ten inch snow cover.

Other places that have a 100% probability of a White Christmas include Marquette and Sault St. Marie, Michigan, and Hibbing and International Falls, Minnesota.

Little chance of a White Christmas here in Alabama this year. Across the country, the best chances will come across the mountains of the West and the Upper Midwest. Additional snow showers will fall on top of the existing snow cover this week. Additional snow showers will fall all week in northern New England.

-Bill Murray

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

"Christmas time is here
Happiness and cheer
Fun for all that children call
Their favorite time of the year..."

I think we were actually one of the first "top 40" radio stations in the nation to play that on the air way back in the 1970s (the BIG 1230, WTBC in Tuscaloosa).

Something about that original Charlie Brown Christmas show still makes it special today. Probably the fact that the real meaning of Christmas is revealed in the script... something that would never happen today in our politically correct sea of insanity.

HOPE: The storm we named HOPE a week ago is producing a wintry mess over west Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and northeast New Mexico this morning, where winter weather advisories are in effect. It will swing across the deep south tomorrow night.

While the storm is on the board and shows up nicely in the progs, there is very little moisture to work with. Hard to squeeze blood out of a turnip, you know. We might have a few flurries tomorrow night. You will probably have to look pretty hard to fine them.

Hope will take the shape of a nice surface low east of Florida on Wednesday, but the system pretty much stays out to sea.

Colder air moves into the state in the wake of Hope; we should be well down in the 20s both Wednesday and Thursday morning. As usual, the GFS MOS looks way too warm. It is spitting out the usual 50s/30s.

Temperatures will warm up at the end of the week; we might be flirting with 60 by Friday.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: A fairly strong wave will roll through the state on Saturday with a chance of rain at times. Then, that wave sharpens the long wave trough over the eastern U.S. again on Christmas Day and we begin to turn colder again.

That eastern U.S. trough should hold between Christmas and New Years... keeping temperatures here below normal. Should be pretty cold, in fact.

See the video for a look at the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation charts for the next 15 days... and how they might impact our weather.

THIS WEEK: I will be working a fairly routine schedule this week, although I will be doing mornings at WZZK for Johnson and Johnson Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. I know many of you are headed out of town... be careful and have a very merry Chrisytmas. I will be taking next week off... away from maps and computers to spend some quality time with the family.

The next map discussion video will be ready by 3:30 this afternoon...