Alabama experienced a total of 74 tornadoes in 2005, easily a record, and 324 percent of normal. The old tornado record was 55 in 2001. But, we should note that most of the tornadoes in 2005 were smaller ones found in spiral bands of decaying tropical storms and hurricanes. And, there were no tornado deaths in Alabama during the year.

The last killer tornado in our state came on November 24, 2004 when an F2 tornado was responsible for one death in Bynum, just west of Anniston. The Veterans Day outbreak on November 10, 2002 was responsible for 12 fatalities. Our last strong/violent tornado in Alabama was an F4 on November 24, 2001, which injured 22 people in Blount and Etowah counties in communities like Altoona and Mt. Carmel.

So, it has been well over three years since an F4/F5 strong/violent tornado has touched down in Alabama. That is great news, but on the other hand the lack of these kind of tornadoes can easily lead to public complacency. And, I strongly believe we have way too many tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. Please understand I am not faulting anyone at a local NWS office for this, but the problem is the criteria on which warnings are issued.

Several years of too many warnings and no strong/violent tornadoes is not a good combination. Those of us on the weather community, BOTH the private sector and the NWS, must work on reducing the false alarm ratio during severe weather threats in Alabama. Crying wolf won't cut it anymore. The easiest thing in the world to do is issue a tornado warning. Sometimes the most difficult thing to do is NOT issue a warning looking at a busy radar with computer generated tornado signatures. But, often that is the correct decision.

Success cannot be measured by how many tornado warnings are issued by any specific NWS office, but how many verified warnings are issued.

And, the public must understand we will have more violent tornadoes in the future. It is just a matter of time. Lets hope the years of inactivity coupled with tons of warnings won't dull everyone's senses too much.

Birmingham has soared to 76 degrees... easily beating the old record high of 74 for January 2 set just one year ago.

Leading the way is Montgomery with 81 degrees; Tuscaloosa is at 80 at this hour.

January, or June?

Back to reality late this week, however...

I am surprised at the amount of traffic on the blog today... after all, BOTH Alabama and Auburn are playing right now in bowl games.

The severe weather threat is over. The little moisture left in the atmosphere has moved on to the east.

As I wrote at 7:59 this morning, this turned out to be a non-event for Alabama.

From my 1:53 p.m. post yesterday: "Considering the time of day and the time of year (not much help from the sun concerning instability), hopefully we will escape with just a few strong storms."

That was indeed the case... thunder and lightning between 2:00 and 6:00 a.m.... but nothing severe. Just a few strong storms. The real severe weather problem will be east of Alabama this afternoon and tonight. As far east as the Carolinas, and as far south as central Florida.

Notice plenty of critics today... you all make some very good points. Constructive criticism is a good thing...

But I have noticed some laughable comments:

"They never hit the winter events, they are wrong. Every single time."

"This is a state where the sun almost always shines, so how hard is it to get that one right?"

Our friend must be a newcomer. And, yes, my friend, prayer does work. Glad you read our blog...

Record highs are the story today... looks like we have a great chance of breaking the old record high for today (74) set just a year ago in 2005.

LOOKING AHEAD: I will get back on the video schedule tomorrow morning bright and early. Just some quick thoughts on coming attractions:

*FRIDAY COLD: The latest 12Z run of the GFS continues to drive a quick shot of very cold air in here Friday. Looks like we could hold in the 30s all day. Maybe enough moisture for flurries or sprinkles, but nothing beyond that. Look out for mid 20s by Saturday morning. Then, a warming trend begins late in the weekend as the pattern becomes less amplified.

Looks like another shot at a cold air blast at mid-month... but it doesn't look like it will hang around for long with a neutral NAO. If that thing goes negative, we should be colder for a longer period of time.

It is all football on ABC 33/40 through 11:00 p.m... we will do a late newscast after the Sugar Bowl. Back to the regular schedule tomorrow.

I think it was Yogi Berra who said, "It ain't over 'til it's over," but folks, this event is just about over. Moisture levels are dropping quickly over all of North Alabama now as much drier air continues to filter into the state on westerly winds.

Despite very impressive instability numbers and decent shear and the disappearing of the "cap," thunderstorms have just not been able to form across Northeast Alabama as expected.

A narrow line of thunderstorms over western Tennessee shows no signs of building into northern Mississippi or Alabama. There was talk earlier from the SPC about issuing a watch for Tennessee and the Tennessee Valley section of Alabama. They decided against it and instead issued a severe thunderstorm watch further north. Some severe thunderstorm warnings are ongoing in that watch box now.

We can't rule out a rogue storm over the Tennessee Valley, or maybe extreme East Central Alabama this afternoon, but chances are very slim.

Be aware that there is a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for all of North and Central Alabama until 6 p.m. West and southwest winds are averaging 10-20 mph and gusting to as high as 30 mph at time.

Eslewhere, Tornado Watch #5 has been replaced by Tornado Watch 8 from South Carolina, across southern Georgia and into northern Florida.

Don’t let that sunshine fool you. Hey it has been a beautiful morning. But the atmosphere still remains charged over much of the state. Instability levels are very high with cool mid level temperatures and a war, moist layer near the surface. Temperatures had already risen into the lower and middle 70s by late morning with dewpoints still in the lower to middle 60s.

Dewpoints (a good indicator of moisture) are highest over the east. Look at a visible satellite photo and see those rows of cumulus clouds, another indicator of good moisture. Skies are nearly clear over West Alabama now. Helicity values (a measure of spin in the atmosphere that is important for tornadoes) are quickly dropping. But overall speed shear (change in wind speed with height) is still plenty sufficient for the development of organized storms.

This means that additional thunderstorms will likely fire over East Alabama in the next few hours. They will be capable of copious amounts of hail, even severe hail. We can rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado too, even though that appears unlikely. So residents of East Alabama should keep a weather eye out for the remainder of the day until this event is truly over.

Additional storms have fired over western Tennessee and are trying to build down into northern Mississippi. This is closer to the upper low over Missouri. The cap may finally be broken over Mississippi. It will be interesting to see if these storms have enough moisture to work with. The front is just behind those storms near the Mississippi River. It will finally sweep through here tonight, ending the threat of thunderstorms.

Thanks to JB for his excellent work as always. He has headed to a much needed nap. I will hammer out the afternoon forecast package and watch the radar for the next few hours.

And, really, very little to report.

Almost of Alabama free or rain or storms at 9:40 am.

Only the very SE corner of the state still has any and that is a part of a line of thunderstorms from SW Georgia down into North Florida.

Moving east.

No new thunderstorm development "upstream" to the west of Alabama.

We are still under a "slight risk" because cold front still to move through later today.

Have seen few, if any, reports of damage so far today.

That is good.

Very good.

Sure looks like this is turning into a non-event for much of north and central Alabama... but it is not over yet.

A dry slot continues to move into the state from the west, pushing all of the ongoing showers and storms into Georgia.

Most of the action will be over southeast Alabama, where a tornado watch is in effect. Places like Dothan, Geneva, and Abbeville are under the gun.

About the only thing we have to worry about here is the actual surface front moving through later today. A few storms could very well form on the front, but with unidirectional wind profiles the tornado threat looks very small. The main issue will come from hail, but temperatures aloft are not as cold as the event we had a few days ago.

Quite frankly, for most communities around here the rest of the day will be dry as new storms that form along the front should be fairly scattered.

All good news... lost a little sleep, but who needs that? The doughnuts were great.

We will not have any scheduled news on ABC 33/40 until late tonight around 11:00 p.m. due to football. We will have the office staffed and will keep the blog updated through the day. And, should the need arise we can go with some long form programming on the live Internet stream....

No part of North or Central Alabama included.

The Tornado Watch lasts until 3 pm, CST and it is for seven Southeast Alabama Counties.

It is considered a PDS, which stands for Particularly Dangerous Situation.

The counties:

Coffee
Henry
Dale
Houston
Geneva
Barbour
Pike

SPC has removed a big chunk of Alabama from the "moderate risk" area today. The new outlook keeps these areas under a moderate risk:

Southeast Alabama (east and south of the Montgomery area)
Northwest and North Florida (including Pensacola over to Tallahassee and Jacksonville)
South half of Georgia
Part of South Carolina

The rest of Alabama does remain in a "slight risk."

At 7 am, most of the thunderstorms in Alabama were over near the Georgia border and over the Extreme Southeast.

However, new thunderstorms, moderate to strong were over SE Saint Clair County and NW Talladega County moving toward the NE.

West half of Alabama virtually free.

Same for Mississippi.

We are awaiting new development to the west of Alabama.

Being born in Alabama and having lived no other place for my 73 years, I have finally come to the conclusion that a handfull of people in this state like football.

So...here is the official forecast where two teams from Alabama will play today:

COTTON BOWL, DALLAS, ALABAMA MEETS TEXAS TECH
Near 70 degrees for the 10 am kickoff with a high of 75 today.Sunny but windy at times with winds averaging 15 to 25 mph.

CAPITOL ONE BOWL, ORLANDO, AUBURN-WISCONSIN
Very warm with only a 20% chance of a shower. About 75 degrees at noon kickoff, high of 80 during the game.

PASADENA, ROSE BOWL PARADE
The Hoover High School band will be a part of the parade. Here is the word-for-word forecast from the NWS in Los Angeles for the Pasadena area"

Rain...becoming heavy at times this morning. Chance of thunderstorms. Breezy. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds...heavy rainfall and small hail. Highs in the 50s. Southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts...shifting to the southwest 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

At 6 am, CST, it was 57 degrees and raining.

ONE OTHER RANDOM NON-FOOTBALL NOTE
In Australia, Sidney recorded an all time high of 112 yesterday. It was a blowtorch situation with power blackouts and 40 brush fires erupting along the Australia East Coast.

By the way, their 112 high is the same as the hottest ever recorded in Alabama when 112 was recorded at Centreville on September 5, 1925 during a historic heat wave when air conditioning was virtually unheard of.