The first two months of 2006 are history. So far, little in the way of weather fireworks for Alabama. Just a few minor winter weather events, otherwise things have been fairly quiet in the weather office. We wonder if they will stay that way.
We are now in the spring tornado season, when severe thunderstorms can go on the rampage across Alabama and the deep south. The three big months are March, April, and May. We must remember that winter storm events are still possible; the greatest snowstorm in our history was on March 12-13, 1993, and 5 inches of snow was measured in Birmingham on April 3, 1987.
Flooding can also be a big issue in spring; the April 1979 river flooding in Alabama was unusually severe; much of downtown Northport was underwater due to flooding on the Warrior River (hopefully that won’t happen again thanks to the new levee system there). Historic flooding was also seen along the Tombigbee River at Demopolis, and the Alabama River at Selma.
The first of June will bring the beginning of the hurricane season. Dr. William Gray forecasts 9 hurricanes and 17 named storms in 2006; another active year. His forecast indicates a 47 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the Gulf coast. Not good news for everyone still recovering from storms like Dennis and Katrina. Of course, we will be dealing with the usual heat and humidity during the summer months, with the heat peaking in July and August.
The golden days of fall are always a breath of fresh air, with our first frost usually coming in mid to late October. And, then we deal with the fall tornado season in November and December. One thing is for sure… there is always something going on around here. Weather forecasting in Alabama is never dull!
No Dull Days Here
March 2, 2006, 10:46 pmA Cool Down Ahead
March 2, 2006, 3:48 pm
The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
HOUSEKEEPING: Let me say up front that I will be at Mississippi State University tomorrow and Saturday at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium along with J.B. Elliott and John Oldshue. Jason Simpson will be driving over after his midday newscast tomorrow to join us.
Brian Peters and Bill Murray will be "left behind" to cover the usual chores... Brian will handle the map discussion videos tomorrow and over the weekend.
I will be posting from the symposium.... "live blogging" if you will.
I always enjoy this event; not only the great information that is shared, but also the food. Going to Pap's Place in Ackerman Friday night, and the Little Dooey Saturday night have become quite a tradition. Pap's Place might have the best home cooking buffet on the planet, and Dooey is the best BBQ joint in Starkville.
ON TO BUSINESS... After morning clouds the sun is out and temperatures are soaring into the mid to upper 70s again. Tuscaloosa has reached 78 degrees; down in Mobile they are reporting 81. No doubt spring fever is running wild again today.
A cool front will move through tonight bringing the mercury down to levels you expect in early March. The chance of rain with the front is very small, and highs tomorrow and Saturday will be close to 60 degrees with a good supply of sunshine both days. We will be near freezing early Saturday morning.
Dry and cool weather should continue Sunday and Monday; there is just a small risk of some light rain or a few sprinkles late Sunday night or Monday with a clipper type feature.
BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH: Mid-month still looks very active and very interesting. The 12Z GFS actually keeps the severe weather threat mainly west of Alabama with one wave around March 11, and another one around March 13. Both of those waves could bring a potent severe weather setup to parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Northeast Texas, and Missouri.
The new run of the GFS keeps a ridge over us that shunts most of the severe weather parameters to the west and north of Alabama March 11-15. Not sure if this is valid.
It also has backed off on the idea of a full latitude, cold upper trough over the central U.S. Cold air does invade the U.S., but mainly the northern half of the nation.
The jury is still out on all of this... the picture should be much clearer next week.
I enjoyed speaking at the Youth Leadership Forum at the University of Alabama this morning; thanks to Alabama Power, the event sponsor, for the invitation!
Be watching for our posts from Mississippi State... I will keep a running total on the number of doughnuts J.B. Elliott sucks down. My early prediction is 15 during the two day period. Stay tuned...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
HOUSEKEEPING: Let me say up front that I will be at Mississippi State University tomorrow and Saturday at the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium along with J.B. Elliott and John Oldshue. Jason Simpson will be driving over after his midday newscast tomorrow to join us.
Brian Peters and Bill Murray will be "left behind" to cover the usual chores... Brian will handle the map discussion videos tomorrow and over the weekend.
I will be posting from the symposium.... "live blogging" if you will.
I always enjoy this event; not only the great information that is shared, but also the food. Going to Pap's Place in Ackerman Friday night, and the Little Dooey Saturday night have become quite a tradition. Pap's Place might have the best home cooking buffet on the planet, and Dooey is the best BBQ joint in Starkville.
ON TO BUSINESS... After morning clouds the sun is out and temperatures are soaring into the mid to upper 70s again. Tuscaloosa has reached 78 degrees; down in Mobile they are reporting 81. No doubt spring fever is running wild again today.
A cool front will move through tonight bringing the mercury down to levels you expect in early March. The chance of rain with the front is very small, and highs tomorrow and Saturday will be close to 60 degrees with a good supply of sunshine both days. We will be near freezing early Saturday morning.
Dry and cool weather should continue Sunday and Monday; there is just a small risk of some light rain or a few sprinkles late Sunday night or Monday with a clipper type feature.
BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH: Mid-month still looks very active and very interesting. The 12Z GFS actually keeps the severe weather threat mainly west of Alabama with one wave around March 11, and another one around March 13. Both of those waves could bring a potent severe weather setup to parts of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Northeast Texas, and Missouri.
The new run of the GFS keeps a ridge over us that shunts most of the severe weather parameters to the west and north of Alabama March 11-15. Not sure if this is valid.
It also has backed off on the idea of a full latitude, cold upper trough over the central U.S. Cold air does invade the U.S., but mainly the northern half of the nation.
The jury is still out on all of this... the picture should be much clearer next week.
I enjoyed speaking at the Youth Leadership Forum at the University of Alabama this morning; thanks to Alabama Power, the event sponsor, for the invitation!
Be watching for our posts from Mississippi State... I will keep a running total on the number of doughnuts J.B. Elliott sucks down. My early prediction is 15 during the two day period. Stay tuned...
Back To The 70s Today
March 2, 2006, 7:05 am
The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Sure looks like we are headed back into the 70 to 75 degree range this afternoon as the spring-like weather continues.
A cold front will pass through tonight, we believe in dry fashion for most places, and will serve to drop daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees tomorrow and Saturday. Daytime highs will be close to 60, and we will be near the freezing mark early Saturday morning. But, the cooler air is very dry and we will enjoy lots of sunshine on both days.
A weak clipper type system will pass through Sunday night and Monday, bringing a few clouds, but once again the chance of any significant rain looks pretty small. And, the amount of cooling behind that feature looks less impressive, and I think we can bump afternoon temperatures back up into the 60s on Monday and Tuesday if the trend continues.
MARCH MADNESS: While the weather during the next seven days looks rather benign, things might get wild and crezy here in the March 10-20 time frame, featuring severe weather potential and a chance of a big late season cold snap.
As you might expect, the GFS is having a hard time handling details, and run to run consistency is not good. But, it looks like the first impulse will bring a severe weather threat to areas northwest of Alabama around March 8-10, places like Tulsa, Kansas City, Shreveport, and Little Rock will deal with a significant severe weather threat.
Then, our turn should come a few days later, sometime around March 11-13 the next impulse should set up a severe weather risk perhaps as far east as Alabama.
A long wave, full latitude upper trough forms over the central U.S., and will pull down some pretty cold air into the nation. This cold air should move into Alabama in the March 15-18 time frame. There will be some potential for a storm running from the northern Gulf over to the Atlantic coast. Late season winter storm threat? Stranger things have happened in mid-March.
No need to get cute this early in the game with details... we lets get the players in the game and on the maps, and we will watch it all unfold. Sure looks like some interesting times here during the mid-month period.
TODAY: I will be speaking today at the Youth Leadership Forum on the campus of the University of Alabama down in Tuscaloosa, but I will be back in time for a map discussion video by 3:30.
TOMORROW: I have a travel day tomorrow; I will be on the campus of Mississippi State University for the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. If you love weather and want to learn more about severe storms, I really recommend you come over and join us. As we do every year, J.B. and I will enjoy a 5:00 a.m. breakfast at the Waffle House near the ABC 33/40 studio, and then we will be off to Starkville. I will try to get Brian Peters to crank out a map discussion video if he is available tomorrow. I will have my laptop and will send a series of blog posts from MSU tomorrow and Saturday.
Learn more about the symposium here:
http://www.msstate.edu/org/nwa/symposium.htm
Have a great day and enjoy the warmth!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Sure looks like we are headed back into the 70 to 75 degree range this afternoon as the spring-like weather continues.
A cold front will pass through tonight, we believe in dry fashion for most places, and will serve to drop daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees tomorrow and Saturday. Daytime highs will be close to 60, and we will be near the freezing mark early Saturday morning. But, the cooler air is very dry and we will enjoy lots of sunshine on both days.
A weak clipper type system will pass through Sunday night and Monday, bringing a few clouds, but once again the chance of any significant rain looks pretty small. And, the amount of cooling behind that feature looks less impressive, and I think we can bump afternoon temperatures back up into the 60s on Monday and Tuesday if the trend continues.
MARCH MADNESS: While the weather during the next seven days looks rather benign, things might get wild and crezy here in the March 10-20 time frame, featuring severe weather potential and a chance of a big late season cold snap.
As you might expect, the GFS is having a hard time handling details, and run to run consistency is not good. But, it looks like the first impulse will bring a severe weather threat to areas northwest of Alabama around March 8-10, places like Tulsa, Kansas City, Shreveport, and Little Rock will deal with a significant severe weather threat.
Then, our turn should come a few days later, sometime around March 11-13 the next impulse should set up a severe weather risk perhaps as far east as Alabama.
A long wave, full latitude upper trough forms over the central U.S., and will pull down some pretty cold air into the nation. This cold air should move into Alabama in the March 15-18 time frame. There will be some potential for a storm running from the northern Gulf over to the Atlantic coast. Late season winter storm threat? Stranger things have happened in mid-March.
No need to get cute this early in the game with details... we lets get the players in the game and on the maps, and we will watch it all unfold. Sure looks like some interesting times here during the mid-month period.
TODAY: I will be speaking today at the Youth Leadership Forum on the campus of the University of Alabama down in Tuscaloosa, but I will be back in time for a map discussion video by 3:30.
TOMORROW: I have a travel day tomorrow; I will be on the campus of Mississippi State University for the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium. If you love weather and want to learn more about severe storms, I really recommend you come over and join us. As we do every year, J.B. and I will enjoy a 5:00 a.m. breakfast at the Waffle House near the ABC 33/40 studio, and then we will be off to Starkville. I will try to get Brian Peters to crank out a map discussion video if he is available tomorrow. I will have my laptop and will send a series of blog posts from MSU tomorrow and Saturday.
Learn more about the symposium here:
http://www.msstate.edu/org/nwa/symposium.htm
Have a great day and enjoy the warmth!
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