During the last hour, the Storm Prediction Center put out Mesoscale Discussion #410 which described the events across the Mid-South as "MULTIPLE DISCRETE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THE REGION." The 00Z sounding at North Little Rock suggested high quality lapse rate and instability environment was spreading downstream across the Tennessee Valley where several discrete tornadic supercells were persisting. I've been watching the radar all afternoon and evening, and many of these storms have been long-lived. One in particular was moving from the northwest and merged with another cell over Carroll County, TN. The strong southeasterly moving cell seems to have taken a more easterly turn since merging with the other cell.

Here are some additional information to add to the what James has already mentioned:

* At 9:45 pm, SPC had recorded 43 tornado reports, a 195 wind damage reports, and 228 hail reports including 23 of hail 2 inches in diameter and larger, some up to softball size.

* Tornado reported 2N of Searcy in White County, AR with mobile home destroyed and numerous large trees down.

* Tornado at Caruthersville, MO (Pemiscot County) with people trapped in buildings, injuries reported, and the town has been closed.

* Hopkinsville, KY (Christian County), numerous homes destroyed, power lines down, and gas lines erupting along with 3 homes destroyed in near Hopkinsville.

* We probably will not have a good idea of the destruction until daylight on Monday.

-Brian-

Watching the weather to the north...

*The Memphis metro area has been under a tornado warning within the hour; seems like there was no major damage in the city.

*Heavy damage reported by a tornado in Greene County, Arkansas around 6:20 p.m...

*Half a dozen homes destroyed in Lawrence County, Arkansas at 5:25 p.m....

*Wayne County, Tennessee is under a tornado warning... a possible tornado was indicated about 25 miles west of Waynesboro at 8:22 p.m.

*Many reports of significant damage are coming in from Dyer County, TN, especially north of Dyersburg. Injuries reported near Millsfield. People trapped in homes according to some reports.

*Lots of damage in Gibson County, TN.

There is no severe weather in Alabama, and we don't expect any severe storms down this way tonight. The best chance of any isolated severe storms will be in far North Alabama, near the Tennessee border. Even there the threat is marginal.

Just watching the weather this afternoon and the events in Arkansas have been quite interesting. On the 12Z sounding and again at 18Z there was a substantial capping inversion just below 850 millibars. Cap strength was pretty healthy, but as the atmosphere has modified, thunderstorms have been able to break through the cap. That is clearly seen on satellite and radar as these images show.

Also, CAPE values from the latest NGM run at 18Z are 2750 up through about 03Z.

Note the individual thunderstorms that have developed over Arkansas.

Individual thunderstorms over Arkansas as seen by radar from Little Rock WSR-88D.

It would appear, however, that the main threat from these supercells will be hail and/or damaging wind. The wind profile is fairly uniform in direction from the ground up. There is a significant increase in the wind speed, but without directional shear, I don't think we'll see any tornado development. Of course, should the surface wind come around to the south or southeast in the lowest 9 thousand feet or so, that would change. But there doesn't appear to be any feature that will cause that.

Any way, just an interesting situation over there. Lots of severe thunderstorm warnings so far from the NWS in North Little Rock in spite of the tornado watch.

Always interesting to watch the weather - especially when the action is in someone else's back yard.

-Brian-

J.B. Elliott is out of operation this afternoon due to Internet connectivity problems... here are some Sunday afternoon thoughts:

I don't expect any big problems with severe weather here later tonight or tonight. No change from the material I wrote Friday. Main dynamics to the north; relatively weak wind fields. Sure, a few showers and storms should form late today and tonight, and a few storms near the Tennessee border will be pretty strong. But, a big severe weather event isn't likely.

I have great concern that when SPC, the media, or anyone else "hypes" a marginal situation like this, people won't listen when there REALLY is a big threat. For most folks around these parts it will be a warm Sunday afternoon with hazy sunshine through scattered cumulus clouds.

Montgomery has soared to 85 degrees at 2:00. Birmingham reports 77. Temperatures will be cooler after today, with the mercury getting back to normal levels through much of the coming week.

I will be in and out this afternoon, but will keep an eye on developments to our north. The big severe weather threat will be over eastern Missouri and southern Illinois....

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

As fog and low clouds clear, we should see a sunny day, but there is enough instability in the atmosphere today that we may also see some isolated showers and perhaps a thundershower much like we saw yesterday afternoon across portions of Blount, St. Clair, Talladega, Clay, and Calhoun counties. Temperatures are expected to push 80 degrees with many places into the lower 80s.

Another active weather day is in store for the Central US. While only one tornado was reported yesterday and last night, there were over 50 reports of damaging wind including several in the 80 to 100 mph range along with over 120 reports of hail, some to baseball size.

SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has also placed a large portion of the Southeast US in their 4 to 8 day severe thunderstorm outlook. The current model data suggests the most likely time for severe thunderstorms will be Friday and into Friday night. This is still a long way out, so we'll be keeping an eye on the situation to see how it changes as we approach the latter half of the week.

A cold front comes through Alabama Monday. Central Alabama should see some clearing late in the day as temperatures remain warm with highs getting into mid and upper 70s.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday will see dry weather, but with a large high pressure system settling in over the Southeast, we expect to see some chilly morning lows on Wednesday. We could see lows in the upper 30s in Central Alabama. But as is frequently the case during the spring, the cold spell will be short-lived with lows recovering quickly by Thursday morning.

Another front is forecast to enter the state early Friday and move briskly through our area. There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. If the GFS is correct on this timing, the next weekend should be dry.

I had the pleasure of going to the Virginia Samford Theater last night to see "Sand Mountain Saturday Nite." It is a musical comedy inspired by real life events from the Sand Mountain area of northeast Alabama. The music and comedy were absolutely superb. It's also a treat to see some of the heritage of the Sand Mountain preserved in a play written by Norton Dill. The musical versatility of the performers was clearly evident as many played several instruments throughout the production. If you get a chance, go see this play.

I certainly hope you have a relaxing Sunday. Remember, daylight savings time started at 2 am this morning, so be sure those clocks were set forward an hour. Have a great week - and God bless.

-Brian-

DENSE FOG ADVISORY...

Fog is fairly widespread out there this morning, especially over eastern sections from Blount and St. Clair Counties and points east where the NWS has posted a Dense Fog Advisory. Visibilities are less than 1/4 mile in some locations. Use extreme caution if you are driving this morning until the fog lifts.