I wrote my long annual article on summer weather forecasting a few weeks ago, but now that we are in June, let me review a few important points:

*There will be a chance of rain just about every day between now and the end of August. But, on most days, the showers and storms will be scattered, and they come during the afternoon and evening hours; mostly between 2:00 and 8:00 p.m. It is very rare to have an intrusion of dry, continental air around here in the summer. Instead, the air originates from the tropics, and with the high low level moisture content and the daytime heating process, we have “scattered afternoon thunderstorms” just about every day.

*We do not like to use “probability of precipitation” in our forecast. They are pretty much useless during the summer. The correct POP on most days is 20 or 30 percent. The simple truth is that we can’t tell you at 7:00 in the morning exactly when and where it will be raining later the same day. The best thing to do is watch radar trends as the showers and storms begin. Even that won’t really help more than half hour or so in advance.

*Instead of using those probabilities, we prefer to use descriptive terms and parameters that are more helpful. Be sure and check our forecast grid, and look for “percentage of available sunshine”, “hours of precipitation”, and “rainfall potential” for good clues about weather for the coming days.
Most major, widespread rain events here in the summer are related to tropical systems, but not always. We also suggest reading our discussion products, which goes a little beyond the numbers. Welcome to summer!

Read the long blog article on this subject here:

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php?id=780

At 7:55 pm, scattered strong thunderstorms rxtended across Central Alabama from the NE edge of Chilton County, across North Coosa County to SE Clay County.

The strongest thunderstorm was over NW Coosa County...moving toward the east. The NWS has Coosa County under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 8:30 because of that storm.

A strong thunderstorm was also over West Blount County just east of the Cullman County line.

From thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, these reports:

+ 3/4 inch hail 3 miles south of Lineville, Clay County
+ Trees down on Alabama Highway 9 4 miles south of Heflin, Cleburne County
+ 1/2 inch hail at Meridianville, Madison County
+ Police reported hail up to the size of quarters at Lincoln, Talladega County
+ Hail up to dime size along Highway 25 near Calera, Shelby County
+ Several streets flooded in city of Talladega
+ News Director for WTDR-FM, Anniston-Oxford, reported streets and yards flooded in Munford, Talladega County
+ Hail, size of quarters, covered the ground at Hurtsboro, Russell County

The Severe Thunderstorm Warning continues a few more minutes for Shelby County. The strongest storms were moving NE through Central Shelby at 5:35 pm.

Another strong storm near Centreville in Bibb County. Also north and NE of Cullman.

0.44 from these storms this afternoon so far in Trussville.

Nice wide rainbow visible when driving from Medical Center East toward Trussville a few minutes ago. Don't see those often.

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Some very healthy showers and storms have formed this afternoon over parts of north and central Alabama. The most numerous storms are along and east of I-65, and they are producing very heavy amounts of rain. These storms will diminish tonight.

The weather will look and feel more like June tomorrow through the weekend, with increasing amounts of sunshine, and a trend toward showers and storms becoming more widely spaced. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the mid 80s, about normal for early June in Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: Very humid air will continue to cover Alabama like a blanket, so scattered showers and storms will stay in the forecast all week. Too early to pinpoint days on which rain will be more widespread; the small scale features responsible for increased rain coverage this time of the year are usually hard to define several days in advance on computer model output.

THE LONG RANGE: The 12Z run of the GFS tries to develop a trough from the midwest down to the Gulf coast in the June 15-16 time frame, pushing a surface cold front through here followed by a nice batch of dry, continental air. I don't believe that... hard to get a good front through here in mid-June.

TROPICAL: The Atlantic basin is quiet now, but the GFS continues to hint at lower surface pressures over the central or southern Gulf in 7 to 14 days; we will watch for signs of any early season systems trying to form down there.

Gonna get back to the radar position and watch the ongoing storms. Don't expect any widespread severe weather issues; more concerned about flooding!

The ABC 33/40 Podcast for Thursday afternoon, June 2 is now being served by our RSS feed.

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NWS has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Russell County in SE Alabama along the Georgia border. At 2:12 pm, hail the size of quarters reported at Hurtsboro and some tree limbs were down in the area.

Some strong storms also over NE Alabama. As much as two inches of rain may fall in parts of St. Clair County as storms move NE toward Springville and Ashville. Could cause some brief flooding.

Lots of lightning popping around our location in the NE edge of Trussville at this time. Rain getting heavier but very little wind.

The Thursday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

We are doing to begin doing podcasts (audio forecasts for use on a computer or portable MP3 player, like an iPod) twice daily during the week; they are served by our RSS feed:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/Weathertalk

Jason Simpson will handle the early morning feed; I will do the afternoon update. Pretty cool stuff; guess I will have to get an MP3 player now!

Wow... the radar is quiet this morning for a change. However, the upper trough is still to the west, and I would imagine scattered to numerous showers and storms will form by midday, continuing through the afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong, especially if the sun can break through. But, I don't expect any organized severe weather. If you want some real severe weather action today, try Kansas or Nebraska.

TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: The GFS is relatively dry, while the NAM is wetter. I think we will side with the GFS for now. There will be showers around, but they should be widely spaced as the upper trough moves east of Alabama. With some good intervals of sunshine, afternoon temperatures should get back into the low to mid 80s.

SUNDAY: The GFS shows a short wave approaching in a southwest flow aloft, so there is a chance of showers and storms will become more numerous on Sunday.

Very moist air stays in place through early next week, so scattered showers and storms will stay in the forecast for a while.

JUNE 11-15: The GFS tries to lower surface pressures in the Gulf with high pressure aloft. HMMMMM. No skill in trying to forecast anything specific so far in advance, but I would not be shocked to see something try to spin up down there in a week or two. We will see...

Headed over to Anniston this morning with Brian Peters for an assignment in Calhoun county... be back in the office later today for the afternoon update!

The ABC 33/40 Podcast for Thursday, June 2 is now being served by our RSS feed.

Want to subscribe to our free daily podcast audio weather forecast? Use this RSS feed in your podcast receiving program:

feeds.feedburner.com/Weathertalk