Hurricane Celia was one of the worst hurricanes to ever hit the Texas coast. It made landfall on August 3, 1970, just north of Corpus Christi with measured sustained winds of 130 mph and wind gusts estimated to 180 mph. The storm had intensified rapidly in the hours before landfall.

The tropical wave that would eventually become Celia passed off the African coast on July 23rd. It reached the Lesser Antilles on July 28th. Passing across the Caribbean, a closed circulation formed near the Cayman Islands on the 30th. Celia crossed the western tip of Cuba as a tropical storm, but began to intensify rapidly as it crossed through the Yucatan Channel. The pressure fell from 990 millibars to 965 millibars in just eight hours. The intensification was reminiscent of Camille.

But the storm weakened, and by the 3rd, with the center of the storm less than 250 miles off the Texas coast, the pressure had risen back to 988 millibars. But the storm began to deepen rapidly again, and throughout the day the central pressure fell 43 millibars to 945 millibars. Twenty six millibars of the drop occurred in nine hours.

Despite the fact that the hurricane passed to the north, Corpus Christi sustained severe damage as microburst winds of 160 mph raked major residential areas for an hour. The city’s downtown area was heavily damaged. Tremendous destruction occurred as 8,950 homes were destroyed. The storm surge at Port Aransas Beach was measured at 9.2 feet above normal. Winds gusted to 89 mph as far inland as Del Rio (150 miles from the coast). The damage in Texas was a record up until that time: $444.9 million. Sixteen lives were lost in Celia, and 466 people were injured..

Celia is significant because of the damage, excellent track forecasts, the two periods of rapid intensification, the heavy damage in the left semicircle of the storm and the tremendous wind streaks that caused tornado like damage.
- Bill Murray

No video, I'm sorry to say. Still waiting on the UPS truck to show up with the software. Maybe tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Chris has weakened just a bit this afternoon, but Chris remains on a track to the west-northwest around 10 mph. This track, as long as it continues, will bring Chris into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday morning. I'm sure the folks in the Keys are getting nervous. NHC is forecasting Chris to become a hurricane tomorrow and keep that hurricane intensity until it reaches the Gulf. Not sure that Chris will achieve hurricane status tomorrow but conditions are favorable to a slow, steady strengthening. We'll be watching. James Spann posted his thoughts, and as long as the ridge holds over the Southeast US, we will not need to be too concerned with Chris. Texas and northern Mexico, on the other hand, would need to be worried.

Back home and for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country, the weather story is the heat. Ninety degree readings cover much of the US east of the Rockies. I saw Lebanon, New Hampshire, had reached 94 degrees before a shower brought the temperature back down. From Chicago down to Dallas-Fort Worth area observations were showing 100-degree readings.

While the ridge weakens a little and retrogrades it comes back strong the first of next week. This means we'll have to contend with the heat and only small chances for showers. Showers will continue to be rather isolated meaning that very few of us will see any temperature relief or rain.

In the long term, the GFS has remained consistent with bringing another east coast trough into the picture about two weeks out. Hopeful, I am, but that is really voodoo land so I'm not counting on it coming to reality. But I can still hope.

Remember, you can see the map discussion video through iTunes if you want.

I'll be back with you again tomorrow with full video - I hope.

-Brian-

Time for a quick break from doing nothing (I am on vacation this week) to looking at weather data. I am checking e-mail daily; if I don't there will be about 1,000 messages waiting for me on Monday that require a response. No, I am not spending lots of time with it, but just trying to knock out a few a day.

I have a pile (and I mean a big pile) of e-mails from people all across the southeast... asking for the opinion on tropical storm Chris.

So... here goes.

Gut feeling here, at this stage of the game, is that Chris remains south of Alabama, and will be a problem for Mexico or Texas.

The NOGAPS solution sure looks good to me.

I don't see how there can be much of a northward component of motion if the ridge north of the state stays intact, as forecast by most of the models.

I also think there will be some interaction with Cuba, which might hinder the system's ability to strengthen for a while, but I do think there is a reasonable chance the system will be a hurricane at the time of landfall.

Remember, there isn't much skill at forecasting a hurricane's landfall and strength days out,  so this is simply an idea.

I will actually be in Florida over the weekend; I am taking our 8 year old (to be 9 on Saturday) to see the Boston Red Sox play the Tampa Bay Devil Rays as a birthday gift. Might be some nervous folks down there, but I think this one won't be an issue for Tampa or most of Florida. Of course, time will tell.

Thanks again to the gang for covering all the bases this week; in the new digital world the work load is pretty exhausting with  blogs, podcasts, vodcasts, webcasts, radio, and TV. But, if it we didn't enjoy it we would not be here.

I will be back Monday August 7 and the regular schedule will resume as we get down to business for the core of the tropical season. I will probably share a few ideas between now and then here on the blog.... and I will post some pictures from Florida while we are there for the quick trip.

A strong thunderstorm formed over East Central Alabama this afternoon. It was centered near or just east of Lineville, in Clay Countyand down into the NE edge of Tallapoosa County.

Lots of lightning, and possible brief strong winds and a heavy downpour.

Movement was erratic.

Another storm was over NE Coosa County along U.S. 280 near Goodwater and Kellyton. Slow movement.

Some scattered storms were over far SW Alabama and near the coast.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1240 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

...SCHEDULED WEATHER RADIO MAINTENANCE...

THE BIRMINGHAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WILL BE
CONDUCTING ROUTINE MAINTENANCE ON THE WEATHER RADIO COMPUTER
ON THURSDAY AUGUST 3, 2006. MAINTENANCE WILL BEGIN AROUND 900 AM CDT
AND SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 11 AM CDT.

ALL TRANSMITTERS WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF OUTAGES AS THE MAINTENANCE
IS PERFORMED. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE AND SUGGEST YOU TUNE
TO LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA DURING ANY OUTAGE FOR WEATHER INFORMATION.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.


$$

In case you tune in your NOAA Weather Radio tomorrow and don't hear anything, the NWS in Birmingham is planning weather radio maintenance.

-Brian-

* 101 at Hamilton was one of the hottest temperatures in Alabama yesterday. It was 99 at Wadley and Wilsonville.

* 102 expected in St. Louis this afternoon. As we all know, close to 1/2 million customers lost their power in a severe storm about two weeks ago and there was much suffering because of the heat.

* 104 was the high at Wichita Falls in North Texas yesterday and that is what they are expecting today. That city on US-82 is home to Shepherd Air Force Base and is one of the hottest spots in North Texas.

* 104 is the expected high in New York City today with a low tonight (get this) only 87! That means the old air conditioner will be whirling all night. The heat index may reach over 110 this afternoon. Officials are watching the power grid like a hawk. A rolling blackout at this time would be tragic.

* 101 in Dallas-Ft. Worth yesterday is also the same expected this afternoon and again Thursday.

* It as 104 in Kansas City yesterday, but they expect only 86 for a high tomorrow as the Northern Plains and part of the Central Plains get some relief.

* It was 100 in Baltimore yesterday. They should have 102 this afternoon.

* 80 was the lowest it got all night in Atlantic City.

* 84 was the high in Bismarck yesterday after cooking in 112-degree heat last Sunday.

* 2.62 inches is how much rain normally arid El Paso got yesterday with a high of only 68. Much of the Desert SW has had a good break from the heat.

* 83 was the low in Boston this morning and they will have 100 this afternoon. Again, 24-hour air conditioners humming.

* 105 was the high in Lincoln, Neb., yesterday, but only 85 today. They too are getting relief. It is interesting that back in the 1930s Dust Bowl years (which go hand in hand with severe heat waves) that people in Lincoln would gather on the huge lawn of the state capitol and sleep on blankets to try to stay cool overnight. Air conditioning was not a luxury in those days and buildings and homes were like an oven at night.

* 79 was the high in Minneapolis-St. Paul yesterday and they got great relief with 3.35 inches of rain. They were flirting with 100 just a few days ago.

* 109 was the hottet in the USA yesterday at Death Valley. They were probably wearing a light sweater, because they have become accustomed (unaccustomed is probably a better word) with 124-126-degree heat lately.

* 30 was the low in Stanley, Idaho this morning. It was 29 yesterday morning in Meacham, Oregon.

* 46 was the temperature at 10 o'clock this morning at Churchill, Manitoba on the SW shore of Hudson Bay. It is billed as the polar bear capitol of the world. It is very high on my list of places that I want to visit, but I never will.

* 8 is the number of cups of coffee I have had already today. Interesting story in the Birmingham News this morning that caffeinated coffee dehydrates you. Health officials highly recommend drinking just plain water when it is this hot.

* 19 is how many days the temperature reached or exceeded 95 in Tuscaloosa during July. This includes 13 days in a row of 95 or higher temperatures in the second and third week.

* 96 was the average daily high in Tuscaloosa in July. Four days had 100.

* 3 is how many scoldings I have received for calling Little Miss Molly a "dumb dog" on our Weather Brains internet broadcast this week. One person suggested that my weather computer be taken away for a full week as punishment. The majority owner of Little Miss Molly was using the other computer in my office when we were taping Weather Brains. She protested so loudly that I thought it would go out on the broadcast. I won't call that little girl "dumb dog" any more soon.

Life goes on...through heat waves, cold winters, storms, and sunshine. Life is much better in October.

My software should be here today according to the UPS tracking web page, so hopefully this afternoon I'll have been able to learn enough to produce a web video. You can always check iTunes since I'm still producing that video - just can't seem to get the QuickTime movie down to a manageable size.

Chris is now passing the northern Leeward Islands and remains a very tight storm. If you get the chance to review a satellite image, take a gander. The cloud mass of the storm is very small. Chris continued to move on a west-northwest track and that track is projected for the next 120hours. Chris is being forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 36 hours or so and the official track brings Chris into the vicinity of the Keys late Sunday. Remember that Katrina was a minimal hurricane when she cross South Florida, so every storm, even minimal hurricanes need to be taken seriously. This track, of course, gives concern to Gulf coast residents since it could enter the southeastern Gulf on Monday. Stay tuned on Chris.

Forecasts show little change for Alabama for the next week or so, however, Chris may change that. The GFS does not seem to be doing a very good job on the future forecast of Chris with little in the way of identifiable features in the surface pattern. Our upper ridge stays with us as it retrogrades to the eastern slope of the Rockies and then builds back into the Central US getting stronger again next week. The GFS is once again promising a little relief with an east coast trough around mid-week next week.

In the meantime, we'll continue to deal with the heat and isolated storms just about every afternoon. With little change in sight, what we have is what we will get. So stay cool. And do be cautious about overexerting in this heat. The summer of 1980 is remembered because of the large number of deaths in the US from the heat. And it looks as if the summer of 2006 will be another hot summer, probably one of the hottest since 1980.

Thanks for bearing with me on the video situation. I do hope to have it under control today or tomorrow depending on my ability to figure out the software quickly.

-Brian-

Chris has become a lot better organized since midnight but has not grown that much stronger. Again, we encourage you to make good use of the ABC 33/40 Tropical Section.

We should point out that the projection by the NHC increases sustained winds to70 knots (about 80 mph) by Sunday and Monday. The official track forecast increases Chris to hurricane strength later today and brings the center toward the WNW passing north of the north coast of Cuba and near or just south of Key West and into the SE Gulf of Mexico.

There is considerable difference in the various tropical models.

So, check out this page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

People with a high interest in weather (we called them geeks--yes our weather crew are geeks) should read the discussion section.

RELENTLESS HEAT
Meanwhile, we must combat weather that is entirely too hot. The old R.C. Cola backyard thermometer will go well into the 90s and a few spots may hit the century mark. Chance of a cooling thunderstorm is remote for today.