John McQuaid and Mark Schleifstein are staff writers for the New Orleans Times-Picayune. In June 2002, they penned an article in the paper titled “In Harm’s Way.” The article described with haunting accuracy the threat that the vulnerable City of New Orleans faced from an F4 or F5 hurricane. The article described Louisiana’s hurricane heritage. It talked about the advances in hurricane forecasting technology, and the complex series of levees and pumping stations that provided a false sense of security. Despite this, the authors said that the state of Louisiana and the Crescent City were more vulnerable than ever to hurricanes.

Coastal erosion has been gradually eliminating the barrier islands and marshlands that have formed a protective ring around the state. In fact, in some locations, the Gulf of Mexico, is twenty miles closer than it was in 1965, when Category Three Hurricane Betsy struck the state and flooded New Orleans. In addition, the land over Southeast Louisiana has been sinking at an alarming rate. On average, the height of land over southern Louisiana is two feet lower than it was forty years ago. McQuaid and Schleifstein went on to warn that New Orleans is below sea level and if a hurricane were to breach the levees in New Orleans, it might take six months to get he water out. Although the Army Corps of Engineers said that the threat of the levees being breached was remote, they were relying on old date. The authors contended that new data and computer simulations indicated that the possibility was very real.

An excerpt from the article: “If enough water from Lake Pontchartrain topped the levee system along its south shore, the result would be apocalyptic. Vast areas would be submerged for days or weeks until engineers dynamited the levees to let the water escape. Some places on the east bank of Orleans and Jefferson parishes are as low as 10 feet below sea level. Adding a 20-foot storm surge from a Category 4 or 5 storm would mean 30 feet of standing water. Whoever remained in the city would be at grave risk. According to the American Red Cross, a likely death toll would be between 25,000 and 100,000 people, dwarfing estimated death tolls for other natural disasters and all but the most nightmarish potential terrorist attacks. Tens of thousands more would be stranded on rooftops and high ground, awaiting rescue that could take days or longer. They would face thirst, hunger and exposure to toxic chemicals.” Amazingly prophetic.

The authors went on to say that New Orleans and coastal Louisiana was at a precipice. There was a chance to halt the damage to the wetlands and barrier islands and some dramatic protective mechanisms such as a twenty foot seawall across the city. The quoted reports that it would cost $14 billion to effect these solutions. Seems pretty inexpensive now.

ABC 33/40 is now broadcasting WWL-TV in New Orleans on digital channels 33.2 and 40.2. We will announce cable channels as soon as we know later this evening... please scroll down for the post that explains this service to the thousands of refugees in Alabama; they will now be able to watch their local emergency coverage of the Kartrina disaster on TV here.

Our WWL-TV feed will is available on these cable systems:

Bright House (Birmingham) channel 632
Comcast (Tuscaloosa) channel 99 (beginning early Saturday morning)

American Red Cross is working on getting large screen TVs with digital tuners for the major shelters across this part of the state... WWL-TV will be received directly from our digital signals.

Alabama Power crews, assisted by utilities from at least 20 states and the District of Columbia, have restored power to 82 percent of customers statewide who were affected by Hurricane Katrina.

At 4 p.m. Friday, 116,253 customers remained without power statewide, down from a peak of 636,891 Monday.

Alabama Power has pledged that 99 percent of power will be restored in the Birmingham area by the end of the day. The company has committed to having 99 percent of power in Tuscaloosa restored by the end of the day Sunday, with 99 percent of Mobile customers on by the end of the day Sept. 7.

As of 4 p.m. Friday, outages by division were as follows:

• Birmingham: 5,676
• Tuscaloosa: 10,393
• Mobile: 100,184

ABC 33/40 has made arrangements with Belo Broadcasting to simulcast WWL-TV, Channel 4, in New Orleans on our digital channels 33.2 and 40.2 until further notice. We believe this is a great way to assist the thousands of New Orleans residents in Alabama, giving them a chance to watch local coverage of the tragedy.

We are working with local cable companies now to get this on their systems so people can watch in hotel rooms and shelters that have cable access. As soon as we get cable channel assignments we will pass it on here.

You will be able to receive this over the air without cable if you have a digital TV tuner... tune to 33.2 (Birmingham and points west), or 40.2 (Birmingham and points east). We hope to begin broadcasting WWL-TV's signal this evening by 7:00 p.m.

This is a time when broadcasters and cable companies are working together to make life easier for those who have suffered so much. Being able to watch their local news anchors and seeing stories that apply to their home we believe is an invaluable service.

Stay tuned for more details...

The Friday afternoon map discussion is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

One week ago we were making the big adjustment in the forecast track of Katrina and ramping up the concern for the central Gulf coast. There were so many products to issue and adjust we didn't have time to get out the regular map discussion video. It was a wild day.

Today all is quiet in the weather office. Dry air means no rain for at least the next five to seven days. Temperatures will slowly trend downward, and nights will remain pretty comfortable.

TROPICS: The wave near 10N/40W has not shown any development today... but we will watch it closely over the weekend. TD number 14 is now tropical storm Maria, but will move north/northwest across the open Atlantic and is no threat to land. But once again, we stress we have a long way to go in this tropical season. We will be waiting and watching.

Have a wonderful weekend.

Alabama Power crews, assisted by utilities from at least 20 states and the District of Columbia, have restored power to 96 percent of Birmingham customers affected by Hurricane Katrina. Alabama Power President and CEO Charles McCrary has pledged that 99 percent of power will be restored in the Birmingham area by the end of the day.

At 10:30 a.m. Friday, 123,929 customers remained without power statewide. Power has been restored to 80 percent of customers statewide.

McCrary said 99 percent of power in Tuscaloosa will be restored by the end of the day Sunday, with 99 percent of Mobile customers on by the end of the day Sept. 7.

As of 10:30 a.m. Friday, outages by division were as follows:

• Birmingham: 8,222 (96 percent restored)
• Tuscaloosa: 12,566 (91 percent restored)
• Mobile: 103,141 (48 percent restored)

Relayed through the Cahaba River Society...

Subject: BJCC Takes in Refugees


The Red Cross has taken in refugees from Hurricane Katrina from South Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. They are staying at the BJCC Exhibition Hall. Needs known at this time are pillows and toiletries, such as toothbrushes, toothpaste, shampoo, soap, etc. We also understand that there are many children and we were told they could use games, books, etc. You may bring these items to the BJCC or to CAP (1801 3rd Avenue North) if that is more convenient and we will see to it that they are delivered.

If you would like to know more about donating, please call or e-mail Teresa Thorne at CAP Downtown.
Teresa Thorne
CAP
251-0111

www.capisdowntown.com

Blogs, like this one, have become an excellent way of getting information on the disaster in Louisiana and Mississippi. Here is a list of reliable blogs:

New Orleans Urgent Needs (NOLA.com)

New Orleans Missing Persons Blog (WWL TV)

New Orleans Missing Persons Blog (NOLA.com)

Biloxi, MS News (SunHerald.com)

Mississippi Missing Persons Blog (SunHerald.com)

Hattiesburg, MS News (ClarionLedger.com)

Extensive briefing from our son, Steve Elliott with the Birmingham Fire Department heavy rescue team in Gulfport this morning. Let's do it in short note form:

* The Gulfport Fire Department ran out of space last night, so about half of the Birmingham firemen, including Steve, slept on the grounds of the courthouse last night. They set up cots and rested fairly well.

* They set up a portable kitchen this morning and everyone had a nice breakfast, including bacon and eggs.

* Plans may have changed again. Not so sure they are going into North Jackson County into a remote area today. They are awaiting instructions from FEMA (people who make the assignment).

They just completed a tour of the area this morning and here are some notes:

* A dead alligator was lying in the foyer of the First Presbyterian Church.

* Down near the beach, there are dead chickens by the hundreds. Large bags of processed chickens were ruptured by the storm and they are scattered everywhere.

* Big stacks of sheetrock already on scene at the ruined casinos. That seems to be the first thing that they are rebuilding.

* An double banana 18-wheeler lying on its side in front of a motel. Numerous 18-wheelers were wrecked in the area with piles of rear wheels in one place.

* At the First Baptist Church, the entire south wall is missing and the balcony is suspended in midair. Only the steel work is preventing the building from collapsing.

* Along and south of I-10, almost all of the trees have been levelled.

* I asked Steve how far inland the extreme damage occurred, especially the storm surge. The Gulfport firement told him that the main storm surge went inland to the railroad tracks which is roughly one-half mile.

* The Gulfport Fire Department rode out the storm in their main fire station. It is still standing, although everything nearby is totally destroyed.

* A hatch from a sea-going vessel was against the front wall of the First Presbyterian Church, which means it had been carried about 3/4 of a mile inland.

* Search and rescue teams from as far away as New York were on the scene very quickly. They marked some of the buildings as too dangerous to inspect. On some of the buildings, the whole bottom floor was swept away by the storm surge and you could see right through.

* On their riding tour a few minutes ago, they saw a TV truck from WISH-TV, Indianapolis. TV trucks are in the area from all over.

More updates to follow.

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Just not much to say for our weather for the next five to seven days. Very dry air means no rain. Sunny days, clear nights. Highs mostly in the upper 80s, lows in the 60s. Still think cooler places could reach the upper 50s again at times, especially early next week. Quite frankly a welcome quiet period for the weather office here.

TROPICS: Of course, quiet weather here doesn't mean we cannot let down our guard... the hurricane season is far from over. In fact, September and October are traditionally very acive times.

Tropical depression Lee has fizzled, and TD 14 is moving northwest over the open water of the central Atlantic, no threat to land.

The system to watch is the one near 9N/40W... about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. That is a favored position to develop, and those low latitude systems rarely recurve. If this develops (and generally they do in that region), it could and should wind up in the Caribbean in several days. Then, it could keep going west into central America or Mexico, or turn up toward the Gulf of Mexico. We will be waiting and watching.

Be sure and scroll down and read J.B.'s update from his son in Gulfport.