It has been a season of firsts for hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Epsilon is only the fifth hurricane to form during the month of December in Atlantic records. The others are unnamed storms in 1887 and 1925, the second Alice in 1954 and 1984’s Lili. It is the sixth ever to occur in the twelfth month. Add 1998’s Nicole to the earlier list to make six.

We had ideas that it would be a busy hurricane season. Early in the season, we asked kiddingly what would happen if the National Hurricane Center used up their list of twenty one names. There was only one season in recorded history that had twenty one tropical storms, and that was way back in 1933.

It was certainly a season of records. The twenty six named storms that formed established a new record. The fourteen hurricanes also breaks the old record of twelve, that was set in 1969. In addition, Cindy may have reached hurricane status before making landfall in Louisiana. This would make fifteen hurricanes. The seven major hurricanes that occurred, tied the record set in 1969.

There were officially three Category Five hurricanes this year and there well may have been four, if Emily indeed reached Cat Five status. Katrina, Rita and Wilma were all Category Five hurricanes. There have been twenty eight Category Five hurricanes (twenty nine if you count Emily) and three or four of them occurred this year. Two different years had two Category Five hurricanes (1960 and 1961.)

The two named storms in June was significant because that has only happened twice since North Atlantic hurricane records began. The five named storms in July broke the old record of four. So by the end of July, there had been seven named storms, which was unprecedented. By the end of August, there had been twelve named storms. The long term average by that time is 4.4 names storms. The six named storms in October established a new record.
So, 26 names storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes, compared to the long term averages of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. And it is not over yet.

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

This is quite a forecast... I am getting a little concerned about some freezing rain problems here late next week. More about that later...

WEEKEND RAIN: QPF still spitting out 2-3 inches of rain for north Alabama this weekend. The NAM extraction shows 1.31" for Birmingham. Looks like a good soaking. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow and Sunday, but I can't really find anyone in our office that is excited about the chance of a big severe weather problem. I do note the NAM moves the CAPE up to 711 tomorrow afternoon, so there could be a few good surface based storms around. But, wind profiles suggest a minimal tornado threat. If we have any severe storms, the main issue would most likely be from hail.

NEXT WEEK'S COLD: The rain should end by midday Monday, and temperatures should begin to drop Monday afternoon. I still think we reach the upper 30s Monday evening after starting off around 50 Monday morning. There could be a new flurries perhaps over north Alabama, but the big story is the change to cold weather.

I still think the GFS MOS is clueless next week... One reason is the cold air moving in here should be quite shallow. We will have to really work hard to reach 40 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Enough clouds should be around to keep us out of the teens, but we will be way down in the 20s during the early morning hours. Coldest so far this season.

WINTER STORM THREAT? I have growing concern over a storm developing in the northern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. If this were January, I would really be concerned over an ice storm across the deep south. But, this is December, and winter storms are pretty rare this early in the season.

A cold, 1040 mb high should be sitting around Kansas City as a deepening surface low forms in the Gulf. We will have a shallow layer of cold air in place here in Alabama, probably much colder than the models understand. I don't think the air will be deep enough to support snow; if we were to have winter weather problems most likely it would be in the form of freezing rain.

I sure don't have the guts to forecast any ice this far in advance, but just be aware it is not out of the question. For now we will mention a cold rain Thursday and Thursday night, followed by another shot of cold air over that following weekend.

Have a great weekend and spend some good quality time with your family. I will try to make a few posts here tomorrow and Sunday as all of this unfolds. There won't be much boredom in our office for the next seven days for sure...

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lets begin with some observations up north as I type this (around 5:45 a.m.):

Eagle, Alaska -32
Mayo, Canada (NW Territory) -31
Huron, South Dakoka -12
Grand Forks, North Dakota -4
Decatur, Alabama 27

First thing I always like to do on a tough forecast morning is "look out the window"!

So many issues today... lets take them in chronological order:

*SLEET LATE TONIGHT?: Clouds will move into the state quickly tonight, and some precipitation could begin after midnight. We might see a little sleet initially tomorrow morning; maybe even a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle over the northwest corner of the state. If this happens, it should not pose any travel problems in my opinion.

*WEEKEND RAIN AND STORMS: We will have the dual threat of heavy rain and strong storms. SPC has a slight risk over us both tomorrow and Sunday. Severe weather parameters are pretty marginal... seems like the storms tomorrow night be elevated, but more surface based on Sunday.

Here are some parameters for Sunday evening at 6:00:

CAPE: 649
Lifted Index: -1.8
0 to 3 km Helicity: 209
850 mb wind speed: 29 knots
500 mb wind speed: 59 knots

Just hard to get excited at this point about severe storms with numbers like that; the main threat would come from strong winds and hail if we have them.

Rain totals could be fairly heavy with a band of rain and storms becoming almost stationary over the northern half of the state. The QPF guidance suggests 2 to 3 inches of rain for most places, with a bullseye of 3.6" near Hamilton. Model extraction is not as aggressive with the rain totals; they show amounts closer to one inch. One way or another it does look like we will see some beneficial rain over the weekend.

NEXT WEEK'S COLD: The rain should end Monday morning, followed by a shot of very cold air. Again, we reject the GFS MOS guidance and go well under those numbers. Temperatures should fall Monday, reaching the upper 30s by mid to late afternoon. You can't ignore the chance of a few flurries Monday evening, but that won't be an issue... the cold air is the story.

It looks like the cold air will be pretty shallow as it gets in here, and the GFS simply can't handle that with its resolution. The cold air might be only a couple of thousand feet deep, so it really won't show up even on an 850 mb chart (5,000 feet).

I will continue to forecast highs in the 35 to 40 degree range on Tuesday and Wednesday based on the fact that the air will be coming across a vast snow field, and it won't have much time to modify. Winds aloft will remain out of the west or southwest, and I think clouds might prevent us from reaching the teens Wednesday morning. The sky might remain cloudy at times on Tuesday and Wednesday, but precipitation on those days looks unlikely.

STORM AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK: If this was January I would really be concerned about an ice storm here Thursday and Friday of next week. But, this is not January, this is December. We rarely have problems with ice and snow this early in the season.

A storm is forecast to form in the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night, moving over to the Georgia coast by Friday. Shallow cold air will be in place over Alabama, but I am not convinced it will be cold enough for freezing rain and ice. It sure is possible, but I would say unlikely at this time. Worst case scenario is a long period of freezing rain Thursday or Thursday night with a brief change to snow on the back side of the storm Friday. But, once again, the most likely setup is a cold rain, with maybe a few flurries on the back side. We are walking a fine line on this one... so keep an eye on the blog in coming days. It is a very interesting setup.

MORE COLD: Another surge of cold air moves in here the following weekend (December 10-11).

LONG RANGE: The GFS shows temperature moderation here in the December 15-18 time frame, but another whopper 1044 mb high shows up at the same time over the Yukon. Wonder if that can make it down here in time for Christmas.

THANKS to all of our viewers for giving us a great November ratings period. Our newscasts are a solid number one at 5:00, 6:00, and 10:00. Once again, being a market leader is a big responsibility and we don't take that lightly. We will continue to work hard to keep your trust.

I will have the next map discussion video available by 3:30 with other notes as needed through the day...