Long time readers know one of my very favorite places in Alabama is Cheaha State Park, located atop our highest mountain at an elevation of 2,407 feet. Mount Cheaha is about 20 miles south of Anniston, and is visible for miles as you ride along I-20 in east Alabama. I especially love the cool, crisp fall days when the leaves are changing colors, but spring is also a great time to visit the park. This past Sunday over 500 bicycle riders went on a 104 mile round trip from Piedmont to the top of Cheaha for the annual “Cheaha Challenge”. I hear the event was a big success, and congratulations to everyone involved, including amateur radio operators who provided communications support.

The lodge manager at Cheaha, Tammy Power, sent a note yesterday letting us know about another event at Cheaha this weekend. This Saturday they are having a trail and lake clean up day at the park. If you have been to Cheaha, you know there are many trails, and lake has been needing attention for a while. Lots of volunteers are needed, and if you would like to help you should meet at the lake at 10:00 Saturday morning. Tammy says they hope to get the lake back to the condition it enjoyed years ago; a place where you can watch the kids swim, fish or play while you cook out or lay on the beach. This year, our friends at Cheaha will reopen the concession area at the lake for the first time in twenty years! But there is plenty of work to do. If you know any boy or girl scout groups this is a great project for them to lend a helping hand.

If you are interested in helping this weekend, or at any other time, you can contact Tammy at the park at (800) 846 2654, or (256) 488 5111. I know they will appreciate the help!

The Wednesday afternoon web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Yet another sunny and warm day here in Alabama... today is 6 in a row with no rain. Not a bad dry period for April.

But, changes are ahead...

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Moist air returns tomorrow, and scattered showers should begin to form during the afternoon hours. I don't think the rain will be especially heavy or widespread... just keep in mind a few periods of rain are possible. Showers and a few strong storms will form Friday afternoon in advance of a strong cold front for late April. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms on Friday. Once again, I am not totally convinced we will have a big event, but some hail is certainly possible. Here are the extracted NAM severe weather parameters valid for 6 p.m. Friday:

Surface Based CAPE: 1385
Lifted Index: -4.1
0 to 3 km Helicity: 162
SWEAT Index: 405.2
2m agl Dewpoint: 63.3
850 mb winds: 32 kts
500 mb winds: 33 kts

Those numbers are "so-so" for late April in Alabama, but certainly a few isolated severe storms are not out of the question. Wind fields look especially weak. But, remember computer model output can be wrong!

If you want to learn more about those parameters, here is a good site:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/soo/docu/indices.htm

THE WEEKEND: Much cooler air rolls in here on Saturday. The weekend will be dry and cool, with highs only in the 60s, and we will stick with 39 for Sunday morning. Actual lows should vary from 34 to 42, and if the wind can go calm there will be a chance of some light frost in the colder valleys of north and central Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: A fast southern stream sets up across the country. The first impulse will bring a chance of rain and storms Tuesday, and possibly into early Wednesday. The amount of cooling behind this is very much up in the air since the ole GFS is flippin and floppin big time. The next impulse is projected in here the following weekend, April 30-May 1, with a chance of showers or storms on both days. BUT, NASCAR fans, don't worry too much this far out... a fast southern stream like the one setting up next week is very hard to deal with, especially more than one week in advance. The forecast could change...

TONIGHT: I am speaking at the Edgewater Baptist Church tonight. It was one of the churches hit by the F5 tornado on April 8, 1998... the old building was destroyed, but the church is alive and well. I am looking forward to the visit and seeing some old friends!

The Wednesday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Looks like today is the last day of the nice dry and warm weather....

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Moist air returns and showers should begin to develop by mid to late afternoon. Showers and storms should be more widespread by Friday afternoon as a surface low forms north of Alabama. SPC has a huge slight risk of severe weather on their day three outlook for Friday which includes all of Alabama. I am not totally convinced severe weather will be a big problem; hail should be the biggest issue if we do have strong storms. The best chance of strong storms Friday should come from about 3:00 p.m. to midnight. Rain totals from one-half to one inch look likely.

THE WEEKEND: A big change to cooler weather for Alabama. Highs will drop into the 60s, and we are still forecasting upper 30s Sunday morning. The latest GFS MOS has 37 for Birmingham; we have 39. The actual range should be from about 34 to 42, and some frost is possible in the colder valleys IF the wind can go calm. If the wind stays up all night frost really won't have a chance to form. It is interesting to note the GFS shows 38 degrees here early Monday morning; that might correct and we probably need to drop Monday morning lows a bit.

NEXT WEEK: Moist air returns quickly and the next round of showers and storms should arrive late Monday night and Tuesday. I doubt if the air can recover quickly enough for severe weather, but a healthy round of rain and storms is a good bet. Then, another big eastern U.S. trough sets up with push of cool air in here by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Really too early to determine if there will be a big risk of frost, but it is certainly possible.

NASCAR fans want to know about weather for the following weekend, which is race weekend at Talladega. Looks like a close call at this point; the best moisture should be west of Alabama and hopefully the rain will hold off until the weekend is over. We will be able to be more specific early next week...