Rita continues to become better organized and growing stronger rapidly. This link will give you all of the latest information:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

She is almost a Category 3

Her sustained winds increased to 110 mph and her central pressure dropped to 965 millibars or 28.50 inches. She was moving westward at 13 mph. She is also moving away from Extreme South Florida and weather conditions were slowly improving.

* There are growing indications that Rita will be a major hurricane--reaching Category 4 and possibly even Category 5 along the way across the Gulf.

* Latest official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center suggests landfall on the Texas Coast late Friday night or early Saturday morning south of Galveston, possibly in the vicinity of Freeport. This could spell trouble also for the Galveston-Houston area. Galveston would be on the strong side of the landfalling hurricane.

* Landfall is still far enough down the road that the landfall prediction cannot be sealed in stone. Subject to change.

* This huirricane will have the capability of producing catastrophic damage from both wind and storm surge. And, of course there will be the threat of spinoff tornadoes.

* Sounds like Galveston is preparing well for Rita. Evacuation plans have already been announced.

* Going back to South Florida for a moment. There is still a risk of tornadoes for the remainder of tonight and early Wednesday morning. Here are a few late night spot reports:

Miami Beach...wind SE 31, gusts to 45 mph
Sombrero Key...wind SE 43, gusts 48
Dry Tortugas...wind east 63, gusts 75

(Scan down to see earlier posts including James Spann's discussion and opinions. We will continue to post as much useful information as possible during the life of this powerful hurricane.)

* It appears that Rita will make history.

NHC conference call is wrapping up... new data shows maximum flight level winds (at 700 mb, or 10,000 feet) now up to 103 knots (119 mph), and a central pressure of 965 mb.

NHC on the call suggests there is a real chance Rita could become a category five hurricane along the way in the Gulf of Mexico. This thing sure looks impressive now on satellite and radar images....

The new 10:00 package will be out shortly.

I was glad to see some of the national cable networks using experienced meteorologists during their coverage of hurricane Rita yesterday. Seems like CNBC and Fox News Channel are contracting with AccuWeather since Joe Bastardi was on both channels. I don't agree with Joe all of the time, but I think he is brilliant and has a tremendous understanding of tropical meteorology. He knows what he is talking about.

On a regular basis, most of the cable news channels have some very nice looking people doing the weather segments, but they are people who in MOST cases clearly have no working knowledge of the science. Sure, they are very good looking people and speak very clearly. And, they have very nice clothes. But, putting somebody like that on the air doing weather during a dangerous hurricane is dangerous in itself.

I will be the first to admit I am not good looking, I have no hair, and I don’t have particularly good taste in clothes. And, I have a south Alabama drawl. As a young child I lived in Greenville for many years, and my southern accent has deep roots in Butler county. I am not your standard TV person. I love the science of meteorology, but am not overly thrilled about being on TV.

But I have studied meteorology for a large percentage of my life. Not only in college, but also in this weather office, and the other weather offices where I have worked over the past 27 years. I still have so much to learn, but experience is a great teacher.

I upgraded my American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval to the new “certified broadcast meteorologist” designation earlier this year so people watching can know that I am serious about what I do. I have a real passion for weather, and I have tried to learn from many mistakes over the years. And, the learning process continues every single day.

I will assure you all of the meteorologists in our operation (there are four of us employed by ABC 33/40, and three more that are on our team from The Weather Company, for a total of 7) are serious about the weather. I think long time blog readers understand that.

Surely after this hurricane season the cable channels will invest in qualified meteorologists for their on-air weather positions. I was at my mom’s place yesterday installing a piece of electronic equipment for her, and the TV was on a national cable channel. I was shocked at the inaccuracies and misinformation.

Nope, I have absolutely no interest in any national job; I am here to stay. But, this is a call for Fox News Channel, MSNBC, and CNN to continue to seek out certified meteorologists in the future. I think the public will and should demand it. Those pretty people can review movies or interview movie stars. Maybe even read the news.

SOME EVENING NOTES:
* Rita is a high end category 2 and will likely be a Category 3 tomorrow, possibly later tonight.
* She still shows clearly on Key West radar as she moves almost due west into the friendly SE Gulf of Mexico.
* Sustained winds now 105 mph
* Central pressue down to 969 millibars or 28.61 inches.
* She will continue steadily westward across the Gulf where sea surface (water) temperatures are in the mid 80s. Over on the west and NW side of the Gulf you find 86 and 87 degree water temperatures. Rita will like that.
* Landfall expected to be Saturday on the Texas Coast
* Between Galveston and Corpus Christi
* She may reach Category 4 and possibly even Category 5
* Because landfall is 4 days away, confidence in forecast is not as great that far ahead
* Therefore the "cone of concern" extends from West Louisiana all the way down to the Rio Grande River near Brownsville.
* Conditions in South Florida and the Keys will very slowly diminish. A few evening reports:

Key West International Airport...driving rain, wind SE 49, gusts 62
Marathon...Mostly cloudy, wind SE 26, gusts 40
Dry Tortugas...wind NE 55, gusts 66

All wind speeds mph

She is still showing sustained winds of 100 mph centered some 50 miles SSW of Key West late this afternoon. Now entering the SE Gulf of Mexico where a big welcome sign is hanging out.

As usual, we list this link for you to use to get all kinds of information:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

That means we won't have to repeat a bunch of stuff everytime we post something and it will save you reading and scanning time. Some miscellaneous notes:

* The Key West doppler radar has a beautiful display of Rita with the eye clearly showing and the strong spiral bands surrounding. I hate to use the word beautiful.

* The Storm Prediction Center has issued a new Tornado Watch for South Florida until 1:00 a.m. This is customary with a landfalling hurricane to produce spinoff tornadoes and waterspouts. This Tornado Watch includes the Miami area southward through the Keys.

* Rita will continue westward through the heart of the Gulf where sea surface temperatures are in the mid 80s. When she gets over near the Texas coast for her expected landfall Saturday morning, she will have water temperatures of 86 and 87 to feed on.

* Contrary to what has been reported on a major national news network all day, the water temperature in the Florida straits is not 90--instead, 84 to 86. Still that is apple pie to a hurricane.

* Latest official track forecast form the NHC still points to a Texas coast landfall Saturday somewhere between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Since that is a long way down the road, the "cone of concern" extends on both sides of the center line to include the Louisiana coast also. Translation: not sealed in stone where the exact landfall will be.

* After landfall, the suggested track is up toward Dallas/Ft. Worth and maybe Witchita Falls and eventually into South-Central Oklahoma.

* Meanwhile, up in NW Florida it is sunny and hot again today. The 4:00 p.m. temperature in Panama City was 96. Yesterday they had a high of 100. That was their hottest of the summer and the hottest temperature ever recorded in the entire month of September.

HOW WILL NEW ORLEANS BE AFFECTED?
Unfortunately, that city is the most recognizable one in the whole wide world at this time. It will be interesting and possibly tragic to watch what goes on there over the next day or so. The track forecast says no landfall in that area, but again that is not sealed in stone. The National Weather Service in New Orleans in their late afternoon official forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms on Friday becoming numerous Saturday and Sunday. This implies some heavy rainfall amounts. That is definitely not needed for their weakened levee systsem and pumps not operating at full capacity.

LATE AFTERNOON SPOT REPORTS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
Ft. Myers...wind E 17, gusts 29
Marathon...steady rain, wind E28, gusts 38
Key West Naval Air Station...driving rain, wind E 49, gusts 61
Key West International Airport...driving rain, wind E 54, gusts 70
Sand Key...wind E 60, gusts 75
Ft. Lauderdale...wind E 20, gusts to 35
West Kendall...cloudy, wind E 28, gusts 38

All wind speeds are mph. We also have a report that a ham radio operator in Key West reported a gust over 100 mph.

As Rita plows her way across the open Gulf of Mexico, we will have limited spot reports almost entirely from data buoys. However, we will include those in future updates.

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Sorry... running a tad late today. Tour group in the studio... some journalism students from a local college. Gave me a good chance to vent my frustration at the state of "tropical journalism". Most of these pretty people you see on TV along the coast reporting live from hurricanes have an interest in making THEMSELVES the story. I really don't want to see their hair blowing in the wind. Maybe I am just jealous. I am not the story, and reporters are not the story. The STORM and the IMPACT on local people and property is the story. Enough of the soapbox.

RITA: This will be a big, bad hurricane coming across the Gulf. See J.B.'s posts for the latest details on the system now.

NHC track and all models show excellent agreement... with landfall on the Texas coast somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay late Friday night or early Saturday. I would not be surprised if Rita were to reach category four strength at some point on the way to Texas, and maybe even at the time of landfall. Houston, indeed we might have a big problem.

The last major hurricane to strike this region was Alicia in 1983. Our friends in Texas were simply overdue.

Please watch the video for other details on Rita... hopefully we will catch some rain early next week as the moisture from the system curves into the westerlies.

OZONE: A code orange ozone alert will continue for the Birmingham metro tomorrow (Jefferson and Shelby counties). That alert is also for particulate pollution as well.

Hot and mostly dry weather continues for the rest of the week. Fall begins Thursday at 5:23 p.m., but you would never know it by this weather.

Today's AQI (Air Quality Index) for Birmingham was 129, which is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups of people. We need that first good cold front of the fall season soon.

LONG RANGE: Unfortunately not much hope for any big cooldown through the rest of the month. A nice batch of very chilly air will drop across the Canadian border next week, but the ridge holds here across the south. That ridge, in fact, pretty much holds all the way through October 6 according to the 12Z run of the GFS.

Usually in a situation like this, the "ridge buster" of a trough, when it finally happens, will bring some really cold air down all at once. The change can be sudden and rather extreme. Will be fun to watch the upper pattern over North America through mid and late October.

STORM ALERT XTREME: We are excited about Storm Alert XTREME coming up on October 15 at Briarwood Presbyterian Church. Brian Peters and Jeff Craven are the main speakers, and they are two of the best severe weather experts in the nation. If you like to read this blog, you really need to be there.

We will also have a prime time TV weather special coming up in late October... busy days around here. But good days!

Doppler radar from Key West clearly shows the eye of Rita now passing due south of Key West. Excellent radar signature.

MORE SPOT REPORTS AT 2 PM CDT (3 PM FLORIDA TIME)
Ft. Myers...heavy rain, wind E 21, gusts 26
Marathon...cloudy, wind E26, gusts 24
Key West...driving rain, wind NE 44, gusts 61
Sombrero Key...wind E 70, gusts 78
Miami Beach...wind E 35, gusts 44
West Kendall...wind E 31, gusts 46

All wind speeds in mph.

* Several tornado warnings have been issued over South Florida due to Rita.
* Projected landfall is still on the Texas coast early Saturday morning.

(Watch for James Spann's video update and discussion on here shortly.)

She is now a Category 2 hurricane.
Sustained winds 100 mph.
Here is the brief bulletin saying that:

WTNT63 KNHC 201711
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED 100 MH WINDS
AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

(Scan down for earlier information that is still valid)

She now has sustained winds of 85 mph. The eye of Rita will move west passing between Key West and the north coast of Cuba this afternoon.

Check this link for all the basic information on Rita. That way, we don't have to repeat so much information which will save you some reading and scanning time.

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

Some extra notes:

* She will continue westward through the heart of the Gulf of Mexico. The official NHC track forecast takes her inland on the Texas Coast very early Saturday morning. That is nearly four days away, so there could be changes.

* Other tropical models agree with the NHC track that Rita will avoid the Alabama-Mississippi-Louisiana Coast. However, the "cone of concern" does include the Louisiana Coast which means they are not totally out of danger.

* She has picked up forward speed, now averaging 15 mph.

HOW RECEPTIVE IS THE GULF OF MEXICO?
The welcome mat is out, especially as far as sea surface temperatures are concerned. The Gulf has recovered from upwelling due to Katrina. (Upwelling means that the ocean waters were shook up so much that cooler water from down below came to the surface) The average water temperature all across the Gulf is close to 85 degrees. However, the West Gulf has not been disturbed by major hurricanes this season--thus not much upwelling. Late this morning, the water temperature at the port Aransas Buoy was 86 and, closer in to the coast, it was 87. Like apple pie and ice cream for hurricanes.

NOON SPOT REPORTS (EDT)
Fort Meyers...cloudy, wind NE, gusts 35
Everglades City...wind north, gusts 35
Miami...steady driving rain, wind east 28, gusts 44
Marathon...rain, wind east 33, gusts 49
Key West International Airport...cloudy, wind north 44, gusts 56
Sombrero Key...wind ENE 58, gusts 62 (gusts to 72 earlier)

All wind speeds MPH

DOWN THE ROAD
Models suggest Rita will move NNW after landfall on the Texas Coast heading generally toward the Dallas-Fort Worth area and Wichita Falls. Big rain producer for them. Some of the information that weather people consider, but don't always take to the bank, suggests that Rita could dump as much as 12 inches of rain along the Central Texas Coast.

And, oh yes, the usual threat of spinoff tornadoes so common with a landfalling hurricane.

Look for a comprehensive discussion of all of this from James Spann here on the blog later this afternoon.

She has officially become a hurricane. Scan down to see the brief official bulletin stating that.

Also, please latch onto this link for a vast amount of information about Rita:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

A few extra notes...

* Click on track forecast and you will note that predicted landfall before daybreak Saturday on the Texas Coast has been moved southward somewhat.

* Maybe the Port Oconnor-Port Lavava area. This is between Galveston and Corpus Christi.

* This would take some pressure off the Galveston-Houston area.

* But too early to say signed, sealed and delivered for that area. Still plenty of time for more changes. However, the family of hurricane models seem to be in general agreement.

SPOT REPORTS AT 9 AM EDT
Miami Beach...wind east 38 sustained
Marathon...light rain, wind NE 32, gusts 47
Key West International Airport...cloudy, wind north 26, gusts 43
Dry Tortugas...wind east 31, gusts 34
Sombero Key...wind east 41, gusts 46
Molasses Reef...wind east 51, gusts 62

The last three reports are from automated stations in the Florida Keys
All wind speeds in MPH