With the Monday Night Football game giving me some badly needed time, lets talk weather...

Thanks to J.B. for the very nice travel forecast below. Please check it out if you will be on the road, or in the air during the next few days. I will warn the Miss Molly fans that J.B. will be taking the next three days off; Bill Murray and myself will be writing the afternoon forecast packages; J.B. returns on Friday.

I will be taking next week off myself; tis the season for some down time. My last week off was back in August. Time for a breather before we get into the real busy season... January through May is wall to wall with us due to everything from school programs, to the annual Storm Alert tour, to winter storm and severe weather events. By the way, we will be announcing the Storm Alert tour schedule in early January. It will be nice to have the newest member of our team with us, Jason Simpson. This guy is great, he goes on the air the first week of January (he will be working the weekday morning shift).

The new 00Z model data is rolling into the office as I speak at light speed. The GFS takes the surface low on the mid-week storm now from near Baton Rouge to Montgomery and on to Asheville, NC. If this is correct, severe storms should be limited to the southeast third of Alabama. We still should see some pretty decent rain amounts here. That track also might be more favorable for accumulating snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning in places like Memphis, Nashville, Tupelo, and even Muscle Shoals in extreme northwest Alabama. Winter storm watches could ber required for some of these places.

We will still mention the chance of light snow or flurries here Thursday morning, but it should not be a big issue as the main storm pulls away from us.

CHRISTMAS SNOW UPDATE: How about the Monday afternoon discussion from our friends up in Washington... headline reads:

...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A MAJOR SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY...

That will get your blood pumping. Read the whole thing here:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

But, the new 00Z GFS is somewhat of a bummer for snow lovers as it keeps the Gulf storm too far south to impact north and central Alabama. It even keeps the deepest moisture south of Mobile and Dothan.

I still don't think you can rule out some snow over parts of Alabama late Friday, Friday night, and early Christmas morning. But, if it happens, it sure looks like the best chance of getting snow on the ground still comes south of Montgomery. Maybe even south of Dothan!

The ETA model (only goes out to 84 hours) doesn't look very favorable on the final panels for a big Gulf storm.

HMMM... someone just sent me a still image captured of me with my 12/25 snow cover map during our 6:00 news tonight... the image was posted over on a New Orleans weather forum (WWL-TV)! Hard to keep secrets these days.

Not sure I really trust model output until the mid-week storm gets organized and moves on through. Lets take it one day at a time...

The afternoon video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lets break it down:

*Pre-Christmas storm: A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is outlooked by SPC for the southern two-thirds of Alabama on Wednesday. Latest run of the GFS takes the surface low from near Lake Charles to Scottsboro to Cleveland (thats Cleveland, Ohio, not Cleveland, Alabama)... should put down a nice strip of snow to the left of the low track. Heaviest snow could fall in parts of east Indiana and west Ohio.

Our severe weather chances will depend on the quality of unstable air returning from the Gulf... rather iffy. Otherwise, wind fields will be very strong and there will be plenty of lift. Will have to watch for isolated tornadoes, especially over south Alabama, beginning Wednesday afternoon. We should go into the low 60s, am amazing rise from the teens this morning (see J.B.'s post below with the list of low temperature reports).

We will also continue to mention a brief period of light snow or snow flurries Thursday morning as another big blast of cold air arrives. It should not amount to much, and should not last long. We stay in the 30s all day Thursday with wind chill values below freezing.

*Christmas COLD: We will promise cold weather for Christmas. Teens are likely Saturday morning.

*Christmas SNOW: The latest run of the GFS (12Z) still shows an impulse riding out of the western Gulf of Mexico Friday, bringing snow to far south Louisiana and Mississippi, and ultimately the southern half of Alabama Friday night into early Saturday.

Model data suggests the best chance of snow will be south of a line from Linden to Clanton to Anniston, and the best chance of accumulating snow will be southeast of Montgomery. Yep, a white Christmas this year is more likely in Troy and Dothan than Birmingham.

BUT, we still wonder if the GFS due to a cold bias is placing the surface low too far south in the Gulf Friday night (the current run puts the low southwest of Tampa Bay). This setup could change one way or the other; so stay tuned. Watch the video for complete details.

I have a gazllion e-mail messages from people wanting individual briefings... will have to send them here due to lack of time!

This is our final update at this morning's very cold weather across Alabama and the Southern Appalachians:

EAST TENNESSEE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
5 below zero on Newfound Gap with 14 inches of snow on the ground
11 below on Mt. Leconte with a whopping 25 inches of snow!
10 below at Beech Mountain, N. C., with 6 inches of snow
6 below at Jefferson, N. C.
12 below on Mt. Mitchell, N. C., with 10 inches of snow

Thanks to Bill McMillan in Mountain City, Tenn., for this extra information: It was 5 below zero in Mountain City this morning with 4 inches of snow on the ground. Nearby Trade, Tenn., in an upslope area, had 6 inches. Stone Mountain 8 inches of snow.

NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
4 above zero at Black Rock Mountain, elevation 3464 feet

ALABAMA
10 degrees atop Mt. Cheaha, the state's highest point at 2407 feet
11 in Valley Head (Dekalb County)
12 at Desoto State Park, Jacksonville and Crossville
13 at Vinemont (North Cullman County) the Cullman Agric station and in SE Franklin County and also at Trussville
14 in Cedar Bluff, Huntsville, Black Creek, Addison, Ashland, Talladega, Owens Cross Roads and Russell Cave National Monument, Meridianville and Meadowbrook (near Birmingham)
15 in Wedowee, Scottsboro, Russellville, Decatur, Pinson, Greystone Farms and Center Point
16 at Gadsden Airport, Jasper, Dearmanville, Heflin, Oak Grove (West Jefferson County) Collinsbille, Muscle Shoals, Cottondale and Fort Payne Airport
17 in Birmingham, Oxford, Alexander City, Union Springs, Guntersville, Alabaster and Holly Pond (Cullman County)
18 in Auburn, Inverness, Fayette, Wadley, Helena and Cullman
19 in Tuscaloosa, Livingston and at Shelby County Airport
22 in Troy
23 in Montgomery and Selma

SPECIAL NOTES:

...The lowest wind chill in Center Point was 2 below.
...The lowest wind chill in Alabaster was 1 above.
...While we are freezing, the ABC 33/40 Weather Watcher in Billings, Mont., Todd Foisy reports that it is "insanely warm" in Billings with December so far averaging 11.5 degrees warmer than normal!

Stay Warm!

New 12Z guidance rolling in, and still looks the same for the Friday/Saturday Christmas snow threat. For now the greatest chance of a white Christmas could very well be south of Montgomery. But, we wonder if the GFS is pushing the low in the Gulf too far south.

Will be back with the afternoon video update and blog discussion a little later... stay tuned; much to discuss today.

Good morning and merry Christmas.

Morning video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

This will be a wild week in the weather office... here are the issues on the table:

*Pre-Christmas storm Wednesday into early Thursday: Day 3 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has central and south Alabama in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms! Pretty amazing; going from lows in the 10 to 15 degee range today into a warm and moist airmass with a chance of severe storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Not out of the question with the surface low moving from Lake Charles to Memphis to Cincinnati.

On the cold air side of the storm, some nice snow is likely in a band from northwest Tennessee and Arkansas to western Kentucky and parts of Indiana and Illinois. Indianapolis could really be slammed with heavy snow if the forecast track of the low is correct.

Yes, we might see some light snow or flurries on the back side of the storm as very cold air returns on Thursday morning, but it shouldn't amount to much. It is hard to get snow on the ground here in that kind of set-up.

*Christmas COLD!: The latest guidance has 11 degrees in Birmingham Christmas morning. This is certainly possible, especially if snow gets on the ground to the northwest of us after the mid-week storm. Snow or no snow, it will be very cold on Christmas day.

*Christmas SNOW: Ah, ye of little faith. Don't give up on the Gulf of Mexico system on Friday yet. Actually, it has been there all along, the models over the weekend just pushed it far to the south. The 06Z GFS has snow back over central and south Alabama Friday night and into early Christmas morning. Watch the video and you can see the GFS accumulated snow chart has 5 inches Christmas morning for places like Dothan, Greenville, Troy, Luverne, and Eufala! Some snow as far north as Shelby county.

We have an in-house conference this morning at 7:00... will get input from the other folks in the office and update here as needed. I will also be amending Bill's forecast package a bit to reflect the new guidance.

Time for a fresh cup of coffee...