The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

COLD AGAIN: At 3:00 Birmingham reported 42, and Cullman only 37. GFS MOS way too warm again. Forget the 50s and 30s. Some north Alabama communities today will go in the book with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.

HOPE HANGS AROUND: Check out the Shreveport radar... Hope (I named this storm about a week ago in a sleepless state) is producing cold rain as far west as the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex this afternoon.. and as far east as the Mississippi River. Shreveport reported 39 degrees with light rain at 3:00.

Clouds from Hope are slow to move into Alabama; clouds really thicken west of I-55 in Mississippi. I still think we see some clouds tonight, but the chance of any snow flakes reaching the ground is so small it really isn't worth mentioning in the forecast. Birmingham's dewpoint this hour is 12 degrees. Talk about dry air!

Another very cold night is ahead. If the clouds are thin, or don't move in here, many spots will reach the upper teens. If clouds do arrive, that should keep us in the 20 to 25 degree range early tomorrow.

We should warm into the 50s on Thursday and Friday.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND STORM: This one is producing lots of buzz on the meteorological streets. The 12Z GFS comes in with a different look; the main low moves from near Jackson to Nashville. This would mean a smaller chance of snow flurries on Christmas day, and a greater chance of thunderstorms on the front side of the storm Saturday night into early Christmas morning. If this were March, I would be concerned about severe storms.

But, this is December and the air will be relatively cool and stable. I still think we might hear some thunder Saturday night.. and not from Santa's sleigh on the roof.

Since the 12Z GFS is a bit of an outlier, I won't depart much from the morning forecast and bring in colder air on Sunday with a chance of light rain or snow flurries on the back side of the system. If the 12Z GFS happens to be correct, any flurries would wait until Sunday night or even Monday morning.

Remember, the lower 2,000 feet of the atmosphere will be relatively "warm", so the chance of accumulating snow looks small at this point. The thickness values are low due to the cold air aloft associated with the strong upper trough.

But remember, cold core upper low, weatherman's woe. This thing will probably offer a surprise or two.

NEXT WEEK: Little confidence in details of the various short waves moving through the upper flow. Temperatures still look below normal, but nothing extremely cold for the last week of the year. See the video for the latest NAO outlook.

Was a little late in getting in from the Montclair Christmas party this afternoon... so this post is a few minutes late.... Had a great time with the gang over there.....

Well, not quite, although some Alabama coastal communities are reporting freezing temperatures. These lows are through 6 o'clock this morning. It is possible, in fact likely, that some areas chilled another degree or so after 6. Here we go with a complete list:

17 in Florence and at an elevation of 1601 feet in Huntsville
18 in Huntsville (Monte Sano, elevation 1654 feet)
19 in Fort Payne, Mentone, Madison, Phil Campbell (SE Franklin County) and Black Creek (NE Etowah County)
20 at Hartsville and atop Mt. Cheaha (Alabama's higherst point, elevation 2407)
21 in Huntsville, Pinson, Moulton and Meridianville
22 in Decatur, Cullman, Desoto State Park, Hayden, Collinsville, Section, Leeds, Hamilton, Guntersville, Albertville
23 in Birmingham, Muscle Shoals, Gadsden, Clay (elevation 1032 feet) Rainbow City, Parrish, Alabaster
25 in Reform, Wedowee, Talladega
26 in Anniston, Tuscaloosa, Helena, Northport
27 in Albertville, Riverchase and at Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
28 in Eutaw, Tuskegee, Wadley
29 in Montgomery, Phenix City
30 in Selma, Evergreen, Troy, Prattville, Alexander City
32 in Mobile and Dothan
33 in Lillian (along the Baldwin County Coast)
34 at Grand Bay
35 in Fairhope
37 at Bon Secour (near the coast in South Baldwin County)

It is interesting to note that the ground is gradually getting colder. At the 4-inch depth (a standard reporting level) the soil temperature is now in the upper 30s at Hazel Green, in Extreme North Alabama, and on Sand Mountain in Northeast Alabama.

A BAD--VERY BAD DAY IN THE BIG APPLE
Better be thankful that you are not in NYC and trying to get to work this morning? Thousands are walking to work because of the transit strike. No automobiles permitted into Manhattan if there are less than 4 humans in the car. (Dogs don't count)

At 7 am, it was 20 degrees in NYC with a wind chill of 9.

Thank goodness for My Tiny Corner of The World where there are no traffic jams or gridlock. Makes my walk with Little Miss Molly seem like a stroll in the park on a spring morning.

Life goes on . . .riding, walking or chasing Molly full speed ahead!

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

"I'm dreaming of a white Christmas
Just like the ones I used to know
Where the treetops glisten,
and children listen
To hear sleigh bells in the snow"

Only two kind of people forecast snow on Christmas morning in Alabama: fools and strangers. I am no stranger; I have lived here all my life, with the exception of a few years in Dallas in the 80s. And, I do my best to stay away from the other option although I have certainly been there at times over the years. (not regarding snow at Christmas, but other busted forecasts).

Do I think there will be snow on the ground Christmas morning? NO. Is there a chance of snow flurries Christmas morning? YES.

Before we even go there... lets deal with other issues:

BIG FREEZE: GFS MOS continues to stink. WAY below guidance values this morning... as I write this at 5:30, Birmingham reports 24, while Huntsville is down to 21. At Mentone (atop Lookout Mountain at an elevation of 1,765 feet) the temperature was 19 degrees.

Up in Jackson, TN the current observation is 14 degrees. Ouch. We will have a hard time reaching the mid 40s today. Factor in a north wind this morning and wind chill values right now are in the teens as far south as Birmingham.

I have a good bit of e-mail from people last week furious we were forecasting these kind of numbers, while "other web sites and media outlets" were forecasting highs near 60 and lows near 40 for the middle of this week. HMMM. Beware of the GFS MOS, that is all I can say, and those who follow blindly.

HOPE: This storm is clearly on the board and still bringing snow to parts of Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma City continues to report light snow this morning. The strong short wave rotates through Alabama tonight, and will bring clouds and maybe even a few flurries. The low level air is very dry (dewpoints in the teens), so it is unlikely those snow flakes will reach the surface. But, I bet we do get a few reports of flurries across the southern two-thirds of the state tonight.

WARMER DAYS: We should see a nice warming trend beginning Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 50s. Upper 50s are possible by Friday. Both of those days should feature a good deal of sunshine.

CHRISTMAS WEEKEND: No doubt the models are trending deeper and colder with the storm system over the weekend. BUT... moisture is limited, and low level temperatures (2,000 feet and below) won't be all that cold. The lower thickness values are the result of cold air aloft.

We will continue to mention the chance of some rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. And, yes, we will mention the chance of flurries Christmas morning. But again, I just don't think this will bring a "White Christmas" in the classic sense. It would be pretty cool to have a few flurries, though. Just don't get too excited for now...

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: A parade of systems will make for lots of fun and games in the weather office. The GFS advertises stormy potential for the middle of next week, and again around New Years weekend. I am not convinced there will be enough cold air around for wintry precipitation, but I guess you can't rule it out either. The 384 hour panels are really interesting with a strong trough in the southwest U.S. and the Polar vortex over Hudson Bay. If by chance that happens to verify, that will open up a real can of worms.

Plenty of fun and games in the weather office in weeks to come.

TODAY: Wow... Christmas indeed is getting close. This is the last day of school for our 8 year old, and my final Christmas party is today... I am looking forward to spending some time with everyone at out at Monclair Baptist Medical Center today. Once again, be safe if you are hitting the road today!