The January 10 issue of Time Magazine had an interesting special section called “Innovators.” Their subject was “weather wizards” about a new breed of scientists going to the next level in weather research. One gentleman is studying how to control hurricanes. He thinks coating the ocean in biodegradable oil will keep storms from gathering moisture. Sounds farfetched to me. The one that intrigued me most was a gentleman at the University of Washington. He has published a paper that announced the discovery of the Arctic Oscillation. That’s the back and forth pattern of low and high pressure between high polar latitudes and mid latitudes.

The AO encircles the arctic and this is the part that’s intriguing. It extends all the way up to the stratosphere as much as 30 miles above the earth. Previously, forecasters didn’t think that high was important. Research has shown that sudden warming of the stratosphere leads to outbreaks of wintry weather in Europe and the USA. These changes in stratospheric temperatures weakened the winds that swirl around the arctic, thereby allowing frigid air to move down into the USA. A lot more study will need to be done. There is a lot of weather research going on around the world that can’t help but benefit weather forecasters.

Improvements in technology have brought us light years ahead of what it was only 20 years ago. Radar today is far more sophisticated than it was when I retired from the National Weather Service in 1989.

But this old world is covered by a huge envelope of air that is very fluid, changeable and always on the move. Personally, I don’t think weather forecasting will ever become really, really precise. I’m not sure I would want it to. I threw out this question a few years ago as a thought provoker (I love thought provoking questions). It was a “what if” question.

What if weather forecasting became as precise as astronomy and we could say that a certain town would be wiped out by an F5 tornado on a certain date 5 years down the road? What would happen to that town? No one else would want to move there. It would be extremely difficult to get insurance on a new home. It would be nearly impossible to sell a home. Why waste time doing maintenance, repair streets, etc. if it is all going to be wiped out? I was surprised at the response. Most people did want the science of meteorology to become that accurate.

-J.B. Elliott

Wow... second day in a row temperatures are warmer than forecast. Again today, nobody complaining.

The afternoon video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

No real change in our weekend package. A few showers tomorrow, maybe even a brief thundrstorm in spots. Much colder air rolls in here late tomorrow afternoon with a very narrow window for a new flurries, mainly over northeast Alabama, tomorrow night and during the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning.

I am hearing from more and more people proclaiming that we are not getting as much snow as we did when they were growing up. That leads into ideas of climate change, global warming, etc.

I need to remind you that there have been only 13 times since weather records started here when it snowed four inches or more in Birmingham. Those weather records go back to 1880!

That means we get a four inch or greater snow ONLY once every 9.6 years on average!

We simply live in a low latitude state and it does not snow much. Sure, we can get a "big one" every few years, but you are in the wrong place if you are a snow fan. I will write a longer post on this early next week and show some statistics to jog memories...

Have a nice weekend.

Morning video update is ready to go:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Not much time.. have to run get a second grader on the bus.

No changes... weekend system will be strong but starved for moisture. A little rain tomorrow, much colder Sunday. Just a few flurries tomorrow night mainly over northeast Alabama...