We have so much going on right now I wanted to remind you that our 2005 ABC 33/40 Severe Weather DVD is still available at no cost. You have to pick one up at one of our sponsors locations: Publix, Bedz Express, Trinity Contractors, Trussville Mazda, and Med Center Mazda.

Our chief photographer and the guy who makes us in weather really look good, Bill Castle, put the entire DVD together. We selected four major tornado events to showcase: the April 8, 1998 Birmingham F5 tornado that killed 32 people in Jefferson county, the December 16, 2000 F4 tornado in Tuscaloosa that killed 11, and Palm Sunday F4 tornado on March 27, 1994 that killed 20 people at the Goshen United Methodist Church, and the Carbon Hill tornado outbreak on November 10, 2002 that was responsible for 11 deaths. For the events that happened since 1996, you will see our on-air “wall to wall” coverage and some of the first live reports from the affected areas. For all of the tornado stories, you will also meet some of the people who were directly impacted by the severe weather. Stories of courage and survival. Really amazing stuff.


And, we also had Brian Peters of our staff put together a “mini SKYWARN” school; an introduction to severe storm spotting. Brian trained over 6,000 storm spotters in Alabama during this days with the National Weather Service, and his DVD session is a great starter course for anyone new to severe storm spotting, and a great refresher course for the old timers.
There are a limited number of these DVDs to give away, so if you want one I strongly recommend you head to one of those sponsor locations this week. We hope it will help in getting Alabamians ready for the spring tornado season, which is just around the corner. Yesterday’s storms in the Tennessee Valley were a good reminder of that!

UPDATE AT 9 PM CST:

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues until 1 am CST for 13 counties in North Central and NE Alabama. By 9 tonight, most of the stronger storms had shifted eastward into East Central and Central Alabama. Yes, the Tennessee valley is finally getting a break!

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were posted this evening for Cleburne, Perry, Talladega and Calhoun Counties. There were several reports of large hail but no known major damage. By far the Tennessee Valley suffered the most from today's severe thunderstorms and flash flooding.

The Monday afternoon video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

You know, since I woke up this morning a little before 5:00 seems like I have not had a second to catch my breath. Lots of chores and some weather action not far away.

Coming attractions:

*Short term issue involves the ongoing convection near the Tennessee border. A new watch has been issued for most of north Alabama through 6:00 p.m. Seems like we are capped off down here. Temperatures are actually nearing 80 degees over west Alabama, and if we can't bust through that cap now I am not sure we will see much action along the I-20 corridor for the rest of the day. But, the early morning sounding showed mid level temperatures significantly cooler, so if that cooling continues maybe storms can ultimately fire here. One way or another sure has turned out to be a very nice spring-like day for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden.

*Models don't show much rain tomorrow. It will be warm enough (mid 70s again) for widely scattered afternoon showers or storms, but no upper support. Many places will be dry.

*Looks like rain moves in here Wednesday evening, lasting Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This is an impulse moving along the surface front, which should be south of us at that time. Heaviest rain should be near the Gulf coast with that feature.

*Weekend forecast confidence is low. I am still concerned about overrunning beginning Saturday night or Sunday, and I would not be shocked to see some light in here, although the GFS looks pretty dry right now.

*The latest run (12Z) of the GFS finally showing our cold air surge in here toward the middle of next week, in about 8 or 9 days. The first week of March looks pretty chilly, and maybe downright cold. There is still a wild hodgepodge of specific solutions concerning storms and waves, but nothing to hang our hat on right now.

Gotta get back to looking at radar trends. I need 12 eyes and 24 hands on a day like today.

The Monday morning video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I mention this in the video update; my Monday morning video is a more of a "first look" for me. I do my best to get away from weather maps and computers over the weekend and spend time with my family. Therefore, I am coming in pretty cold early Monday, and it is usually Monday afternoon before I am really up to speed. Especially with this kind of difficult pattern.

Having said all of that... here are my Monday morning first thoiughts:

*I am not sure I trust any of the models this morning.

*Dewpoints have surged into the 60s over north Alabama this morning with surface based CAPEs over 1000 now, and severe storms are in progress north of us in the Tennessee Valley. Impressive bow echo about to move into northwest Tennessee as I write this. We must be getting close to our spring tornado season. Would not be shocked to see a few isolated severe storms around here later today or tonight.

**SPC has just put much of north Alabama under a slight risk today on their updated Day 1 convective outlook this morning**

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html

Don't expect a major outbreak, but scattered severe storms are certainly possible in this environment.

*The models don't suggest much rain at all tomorrow and Wednesday. Tomorrow, with a little sun, temperatures should soar into the low 70s and the instability values will be very high. So, we will mention "scattered afternoon thunderstorms' much like on a summer day, and the daytime heating process the primary lifting mechanism. It is beginning to look like the most widespread rain on Wednesday will be over the southern half of Alabama, so we can probably scale back the rain chances for places like Birmingham.

*Colder air slips in here toward the end of the week with temperatures getting back to normal levels. I am not sure we clear out with the southern stream staying close, and I also expect some kind of overrunning pattern to get going by the weekend, so I can't rule out some rain at times on Saturday and Sunday. The models are in big disagreement about the amount of cold air that reaches us; the European is much colder late this weekend, and I think it might have the correct solution.

And, of course, if we do have cold air in place and overrunning going on that gives the snow and ice fans something to cheer about. We have a long way to go this winter... sure looks like an interesting pattern during that first week of March.

Gonna hit the coffee pot and stare and a bunch of maps... will have a much more complete update on here this afternoon...