A few days ago, the National Weather Service issued their service assessment for Hurricane Katrina. It is an internal audit of their performance during the disaster. The report contains findings and recommendations. It is conducted by a team of meteorologists and NWS officials. They are always interesting reading and provide valuable ideas for the public-private warning partnership that includes the NWS, local emergency management and governments and the media. Some of the more interesting nuggets that I gleaned from the report:

The dramatic Urgent Weather Message issued by a forecaster at the National Weather Service Slidell that accurately described what was going to happen in the New Orleans area and along the Mississippi Coast was praised. The statement was actually a template that had been designed in advance at the NWS Tampa. These templates will be made available to the field from now on.

The Extreme Tropical Cyclone Destructive Wind Warnings are confusing. Steps will be taken to educate the media about the use of this product and the language will be made more consistent.

Storm surge model data is now available over the internet from the NHC. But, as Max Mayfield discussed last week, this information is difficult to interpret and could lead to bad decisions on the part of the public if not viewed in the context of NWS official forecasts. It will feature a disclaimer this year.

The importance of buoy data was recognized. As a result, the National Data Buoy center will be involved in the Hurricane Conference Calls from now on.

Some third party PC software at NWS offices would not function properly because of NWS anti-virus programs. NWS offices were urged to verify settings to allow full functionality.

Some emergency managers reported that the myriad of conference calls during the event was overwhelming. The recommendation was to try to streamline the timing of calls.

The use of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, the primary information tool for NWS forecasters, was lost at the height of the storm at some offices in the hurricane area. The National Weather Service will be working with communications providers to develop redundant communications pathways.

More tomorrow…

Two complexe of thunderstorms are over Tennessee tonight. The first, over eastern sections of the Volunteer State, has a tail of storms trailing down into the Tennessee Valley. Those storms extend over Jackson, Madison and into northern Morgan County. They will continue moving east southeast, reaching places ike Arab, Albertville, Fort Payne and Gadsden later this evening.

Over Alabama, they are not severe, and are not expected to become severe. A Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina and North Georgia ahead of this complex of storms.

Another even larger complex of storms is over western Tennessee ahead of a cold front. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for much of the rest of Tennessee until 11 p.m. CDT. These storms may graze across the Tennessee Valley late tonight, but are not expected to make it down into CentraL Alabama.

Activity associated with the complexes is trending downward in intensity as we get further away from the heating of the day, but severe weather is possible late tonight across the Tennessee Valley.

The cold front is poised to enter Northwest Tennessee but has slowed to a stop and may spend the night in a motel near Cape Girardeau in the Missouri bootheel. It should resume its southeastward progress after taking a bit of a breather to let a couple of low pressure systems ripple past.

It will fire showers and storms across the area on Saturday. The SPC has all of us outlooked for severe weather on Saturday except for the Northwest Corner of the state and a tiny sliver down around Dothan. Hail will be a threat. High winds will be a bigger threat.

Storms tonight produced widespread damage in the city of Russellville in Franklin County. Numerous trees are power lines were knocked down, A trailer was overturned. A restaurant received minor damage. A bank that was under construction was damaged. Windows were blown out of several downtown businesses.

Another microburst produced wind damage in Lamar County. The Beavertown community received high winds that produced damage.

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the web server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Well... I have done it. After years of thinking about it, I am going Mac. I will be doing the audio and video on the new Apple MacBook Pro at some point next week (I have the notebook now, I just have to get it ready). No computer is perfect, but it simply offers what I need in generating and rendering all of these video products.... speed! And, of course, ease of use. Brian Peters is also another Mac guy here in our office. Seems like the only negative so far is the heat; you can pretty much cook your breakfast on the bottom of that thing. But, I was aware of it before I made the purchase. Lots of power in that skinny case... heat has to happen.

THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: No change in our thinking for the weekend. Cooler temps and better coverage of showers and storms. At the moment, the radar is very calm, but to the north SPC has put a moderate risk for areas around the Ohio River in advance of our long awaited front. Some of those storms might slip in here tonight.

THE WEEKEND: Looks like the best coverage of showers and storms will come late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. If the rain holds off until late in the day, then we should reach the low 90s. But, on Sunday, just about everyone will remain below 90.

Still lots of debate on where the front stops. The GFS says Montgomery; the NAM says Birmingham. I have to side with the NAM considering the time of year. On Sunday and Monday showers and storms will be possible along and south of I-20, but the northern third of the state will be in much drier air with lower humidity.

NEXT WEEK: The front drifts to the north and dissipates, so moisture will return to the whole state by Tuesday and Wednesday, and scattered showers and storms will form again. The GFS MOS looks much better on the 12Z run; it shows highs around 90 just about every day next week.

Gotta run and get ready for the live weather segments from the Hoover Met. This is ABC 33/40 Night, and I will be live at 5:00 and 6:00 prior to the Barons game. If you are coming to the game be sure and drop by and say hello.

Also, I am making a rare apprearance in the "big house" at my church Sunday filling in for our pastor. I usually do sermons for 6-10 year olds, but it is nice to get over to the adult side from time to time. I invote you to come visit and hear what I have to say:

http://www.hsbc.org/info/default.htm

Brian Peters will handle the map discussion videos over the weekend; my next one will be Monday morning at 7:00!

Have a great weekend.....

Thanks to Bill Roberts of Cropwell for these "cool" pictures. Here is Bill's note:

With all of the heat, I thought that your readers might enjoy a couple of pictures that were taken on July 2nd just outside of Glacier National park in Northwest Montana.  My family was caught in the middle of a major hail storm and there were a few snow flakes involved as well.  The temperature on this mountain was 33 degrees according to the thermometer in my van.  Here are a couple of pictures that I took of the road during the storm...

The Friday morning map discussion is on the web, and also available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Yep, the upper air trough forecast to form from the Great Lakes to the Deep South over the weekend is indeed terrific. It means heat relief and a decent chance at some badly needed rain. Bring it on.

TODAY: We will heat up in a hurry today; the mercury should reach the 95 to 100 degree range again this afternoon, and like recent days storms will form in the hot, humid air. Some Helena neighborhoods yesterday reported over two inches of rain (close to the Cahaba River) from a slow moving storm. We were on the edge of it at our studio in Riverchase; our total was 0.42".

THE WEEKEND: All of Alabama is in a slight risk of severe weather on the day 2 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center as the upper trough forms and a surface front moves into far North Alabama. The main risk will come from high straight line winds. But, the benefit is a big reduction in heat and a big increase in the coverage of showers and storms. Some communities will remain below 90 tomorrow; it all depends on when the storms arrive. If they hold off until late afternoon, we will probably reach the low 90s.

The big question is where will the front hang up and become stationary. The 00Z GFS holds the front up right along I-20 on Sunday morning, meaning showers and storms will still be likely along and south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston. To the north, over the northern third of the state, there will be a brief intrusion of dry air. But, the front should drift northward slowly next week as it dissipates,

NEXT WEEK: Showers and storms should be fairly active in the Monday through Thursday time frame, which is great news for a parched Alabama. There was some thinking that the best chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday will be over the southern half of the state, but it sure looks like all of Alabama will have a decent chance of showers and storms with the old front drifting northward. The GFS MOS has highs in the 84 to 89 degree range all of next week; that might be a little too low. But, no mid or upper 90s for sure.

BYE BYE BERYL: The tropical storm is northeast of Cape Cod this morning, and will slowly become extra tropical over the Canadian maritimes in coming days. The rest of the Atlantic basin is unusually quiet.

Tonight is ABC 33/40 night at the Birmingham Barons game at the Hoover Met... I will be doing the weather live at the stadium at 5:00 and 6:00; drop by and say hello if you will be at the game. I will be at the station before I head to the Met, and should have the afternoon map discussion video posted by 3:30 unless the afternoon storms get out of hand...