From the late evening Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Not good news...

The top ten busiest seasons in the Atlantic since 1851....

1933—21 Tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes
1887—19 Tropical storms. 11 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes
1995—19 Tropical storms, 11 hurricanes. 5 major hurricanes
1969—18 Tropical storms, 12 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes
2005—17 Tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes (so far)
1936—16 Tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane
2003—16 Tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes
2000—15 Tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes
2001—15 Tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes
2004—15 Tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes

And there are still nearly two and one half months to go...

HURRICANE RITA EVEN STRONGER...TOP WINDS 175 MPH

Here's the latest information on Hurricane Rita...

At 10 pm CDT...
LOCATED: 24.6N 87.2W OR 570 MILES ESE OF GALVESTON
MOVEMENT: W-9 MPH
TOP WINDS: 175 mph (Category Five)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 897 millibars (26.48 inches)

Rita continues to have the third lowest central pressure ever measured in a North Atlantic Hurricane. The latest minimum pressure is estimated to be 897 millibars. Here is the top ten list of strongest Atlantic hurricanes ranked by central pressure...

GILBERT 1988 888
C STORM 1935 892
RITA 2005 897
ALLEN 1980 899
KATRINA 2005 902
CAMILLE 1969 905
MITCH 1998 910
IVAN 2004 912
ISABEL 2003 915
HUGO 1989 918

Unbelievably, Rita could strengthen even further, as it is over the waters of the Gulf Loop Current. Tomorrow, top winds are forecast to perhaps reach 185 mph sustained and 220 mph in gusts!

It will eventually go over water that is slightly cooler, so the intensification should stop, and the hurricane's intensity should lessen just a bit before it reaches land. In addition, there will be fluctuations in intensity as the hurricane gets so tightly wound that the inner eyewall collapses and a new one forms out at a larger distance from the center. This is called eyewall replacement.

Still, Rita is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category Four hurricane at landfall.

The forecast track has been shifted slightly to the east. The skinny black line goes just west of the Houston/Galveston area. This is very bad news for that area. Of course, landfall is still 72 hours away, and forecast errors at that time frame are large. The cone of error indicates that landfall could come anywhere from the Texas/Mexican border to the Louisiana coast near Lafayette.

Tropical Storm force winds extend out up to 185 miles and hurricane force winds out to 70 mph. Flooding will also be a serious concern with up to 15 inches of rain expected near the track of the hurricane over Texas. Rainfall amounts could be much heavier if the hurricane slows down after reaching land. Rain associated with the hurricane is already moving onto the northern Gulf Coast over the Florida panhandle.

The National Hurricane Center warns that as much as 2-4 inches of rain could fall over southern Louisiana...including the New Orleans area.

In addition, tornadoes will be commonplace, especially east of the track over Southeast Texas and western Louisiana.

It appears that people are taking the evacuation orders seriously in Texas. Listening to KTRH from Houston tonight, people are reporting huge delays on area interstates and highways. People have reported that it has taken 8 hours to go from Galveston to north of Houston.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Prt Mansfield to Brownsville and Cameron to Grand Isle.

Just got some information from the NHC 9 pm conference call...

10 pm advisory will carry central pressure of 897 millibars...

Hurricane is over warm waters of the Gulf Loop Current...

Winds will likely continue to increase...max sustained winds may reach 185 mph tomorrow...with gusts to 210 mph...

There will be some fluctuations before landfall...and intensity should drop slightly before reaches land...but Rita is expected to still be category four at landfall...

Official forecast track being shifted back to the east slightly, toward Galveston...

Should be inland Friday evening...

Flooding could be a problem over eastern Texas and western Louisiana if storm stalls after landfall...

Tornadoes will be a problem east of landfall, including over parts of Louisiana...

More soon...

I remember where I was when Allen hit 899 millibars and when Gilbert hit 892 millibars...now this...

000
WTNT63 KNHC 212351
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

Then from the Public Advisory at 7 pm...
THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MAKES
RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

And the actual Vortex Data Message...
Vortex Data Message
-----------------------------------------------------------------
---------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 212358Z CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/2309Z-- CORRECTED
B. 24 DEG 31 MIN N
86 DEG 46 MIN W
C. 700 MB 22472 M
D. 80 KT
E. 213 DEG 24 NM
F. 305 DEG 142 KT
G. 198 DEG 11NM
H. 899 MB
I. 8 C/ 3053 M
J. 28 C/ 3042 M
K. 01 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .02/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX18A RITA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 1932Z

A night to remember...

WS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

..RITA BECOMES THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 416 PM CDT...2116Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 904 MB...OR 26.69 INCHES. THIS MAKES RITA THE FIFTH MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB...HURRICANE ALLEN IN 1980 WITH 899 MB...AND HURRICANE KATRINA LAST MONTH WITH 902 MB.

FORECASTER STEWART

As always, we recommend this link for all the basic data on Rita, including all the advisories, discussions, radar links, satellite links, etc.

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

But here is Rita in a nutshell:

LOCATION
Near latitude 24.4 N, longitude 86.8 W, or about 600 miles ESE of Galveston and about 700 miles EST of Corpus Christi.

WINDS
Sustained to 165 mph with higher gusts. This makes Rita an extremely dangerous Category 5. Hurricane force winds extend out 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out up to 175 miles making Rita not only a super powerful hurricane, but a very large one.

PRESSURE
It has been falling rapidly during the day and is now down to 914 mb or 26.99 inches.

OTHER NOTES

* A Hurricane Watch now in effect along the Gulf Coast from Port Mansfield, Texas north and east to Cameron, Louisiana.

* Rita was moving toward the west about 13 mph.

* Late this afternoon, a hurricane hunter dropped an instrument package down through the hurricane and discovered one peak wind gust to 198 mph, however, that was not at the surface.

* Rita will become a historic hurricane unless something unforeseen happens. Landfall is expected on the central part of the Texas Gulf coast very early Saturday. Damage may be of catastrophic proportions even though she may weaken a bit before landfall.

* Satellite photographs of Rita are classic. They will surely wind up in meteorology text books at some time in the future.

* Late this afternoon, some data buoys south of the Louisiana coast were reporting winds near tropical storm force.

* As the storm gets closer to land, we will start including some spot reports from buoys and land stations, especially along the Texas and Louisiana coast.

GULF COAST IMPACTS

GULF SHORES
No real strong winds expected. Over the next couple of days east winds will be generally 15 to 25 mph. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect due to water piling up along the coast from the brisk easterly winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms starting tomorrow and extending into the weekend--about a 50 percent chance each day.

GULFPORT/BILOXI
Showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous Friday and Saturday and especially on Sunday. No unusually strong winds anticipated.

NEW ORLEANS
A good chance of showers and thundrestorms Friday, becoming numerous Saturday and Sunday. East winds mostly in the 15 to 25 mph range, but stronger than that along the SW Louisiana coast.

GALVESTON
Showers and thunderstorms more numerous by Friday with NE wind increasing to 55 mph in the afternoon. A 100 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms with hurricane force winds increasing to 75-85 mph after midnight Friday night. Numerous showers and thunderstorms with strong winds continuing on Saturday.

These are notes from Jeff Craven over at the NWS office in Jackson... who will also be our special guest speaker at Storm Alert XTREME at Briarwood Presbyterian Church on October 15:

I'm sure most of you know that the storm is 145 knots/165 mph, and 914 mb, making it our 2nd CAT 5 of the 2005 season. It is amazing how similar the storm looks to Katrina.

Will have opportunity to take a run at 900 mb tonight as it passes over the loop current bath waters of the central Gulf of Mexico. Already some buoys/rigs reporting near tropical storm force winds as much as 300 miles north of the storm in the Louisiana Coastal waters south of Houma.

There was a drop sonde that measured 172 knots 130 meters above sea level, or about 400 feet off the ocean surface. That is 198 mph.

Hopefully, this thing will have much more time to weaken in the western Gulf than Katrina had in the northern Gulf. At this time, the thinking is that the tides will be about 2-3 feet above normal for the next day or so along the MS coast due to the storm, with fairly high swells and surf.

Yet another annular storm, with interesting vortices rotating through the eye. Eye is extremely dry, with a 23 degree C T - Td depression at 700 mb when the plane went through the 914 mb recon.

Even though the storm is expected to go close to Port Lavaca TX, compare the distance from landfall there to Galveston Bay. It is similar to Katrina at Waveland to Mobile Bay.

BTW, rumors have been problematic today.

Rumor #1: FEMA will shut down and limit gasoline usage starting at 5 pm today. Result, large lines in parts of Jackson with some stations around High Street Running out of fuel.

Rumor #2: People see wobble to the NW in past couple of hours, Rita is taking same path as Katrina. Some scared/concerned calls, even from EMs.

These rumors are FALSE.

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Please refer to posts below this one that have detailed current information on Rita... J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray's information is excellent. This blog will be our primary outlet for late breaking information on Rita in coming days, so be sure and check in often.

***Just learned that NHC will up Rita to a category FIVE on the next advisory package with 165 mph winds***

Here is the text

WTNT63 KNHC 211955
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.

We have noted a jog to the north in recent frames... there will be wobbles along the way. But, the NHC track and the models all point to landfall on the Texas Gulf coast between Port Lavaca and Freeport late Friday night or early Saturday morning as a category four storm, similar in strength to Katrina when she slammed ashore a few weeks ago.

This track would bring catastrophic damage to places like Port Lavaca and Freeport. And, significant damage and storm surge to Galveston. Any jog to the east would increase the risk of catastrophic damage to Galveston. That is why we are watching this north wobble with interest.

QPF shows 15 inches of rain for southeast Texas...

ALABAMA STORY: A few isolated showers have popped up over the northwest corner of Alabama this afternoon, but most places will be dry through Friday. Afternoon showers this weekend should be very isolated.

The 12Z run of the GFS keeps most of the moisture with Rita to the north and west of Alabama next week. BUT, the good news the long wave eastern U.S. trough is still there in the October 4-6 time frame, and a major change to colder weather is likely. Get ready for the 40s if this is correct.

AIR QUALITY: A code orange air quality alert for the Birmingham metro tomorrow due to particulate pollution.

A BIG THANK YOU: To Gary Watkins of our engineering staff, who has been up at our Doppler radar site on Double Oak mountain for days working on the system. The radar is back in operation now:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/doppler.html

Lots going on in the weather office... we will have more information here shortly. Stay tuned...

Hurricane Rita continues her explosive intensification early this afternoon. The pressure has now dropped to 920 millibars. This represents a drop of 40 millibars in 12 hours. The definition of explosive deepening is 30 millibars in 12 hours.

Rita is now tied for twelvth all time as far as lowest central pressure measured in an Atlantic hurricane. By my records, only Camille, Katrina nand Opal has had lower pressures measured in the Gulf of Mexico.

000
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

Here is the Air Force Reconnaissance Vortex Data message from the 920 millibar observation:

000
URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z

Note the 153 knot flight level wind. You use a 90% adjustment to calculate corresponding surface wind. This translates to 137.7 knots or about 158 mph. Rita is now borderline Category Five. The satellite presentation is excellent, with strong outflow to the north and decent outflow to the south. This dual outflow is apparently a key factor in allowing these hurricanes to intensify so rapidly.

Conventional wisdom says that the rapid deepening cycle has to level off shortly. With a large and expanding core like Katrina had in the same area, Rita may also be able to maintain intense strength for a long period of time. There may be fluctuations as the hurricane goes through eyewall replacement cycles, but it will remain a dangerous and powerful hurricane through the remainder of its existence until landfall.

All of the track guidance is unusually clustered on a track that would carry the center of the large hurricane to near Matagorda Bay on the Central Texas Coast on Friday. The latest official track from the National Hurricane Center during the overnight hours Friday night. Everyone should remember that 72 hour track errors can be quite large, and landfall could occur as far to the east as Lafayette, Louisiana and as far to the left as Brownsville, Texas, with hurricane conditions occurring across a wide area either side of the center at landfall.

Preparations are frantic all along the Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts with the memory of Katrina fresh in everyone's mind. A friend of mine reports huge lines at Houston Hobby's Airport as people are trying to get out of Houston in advance of the hurricane.

Latest recon report shows pressure down to 920 mb with max flight level winds (10,000 feet) at 153 knots, or 176 mph. Here is the public statement:

000
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$