The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Be sure and scroll down for J.B.'s list of morning lows. Gotta love it.

But... we turn to the future and we are looking at three days with some chance of rain as moist air returns to Alabama. Dewpoints will rise tonight, so temperatures won't be nearly as cool, and low clouds could form by the morning in many communities. We will bring in a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and tomorrow night as a major storm system continues to spin across the nation's mid-section.

I notice SPC is issuing a tornado watch as I write this for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas in the warm sector of the big mid-latitude cyclone. Tomorrow, there is a moderate risk of severe weather due to that same system from Fort Smith, Arkansas to Chicago. Around here severe weather is not likely since the main dynamics are so far away, but there is no doubt we will have at least a few passing showers and thunderstorms. And yes, that means some rain at some high school football stadiums tomorrow night.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Scattered showers and storms will remain possible on Saturday with warm and rather humid conditions, but rain will increase on Sunday as the cold front approaches. Once again, the chance of a big severe weather threat looks small, but most Alabama communities should see between one and two inches of rain between tomorrow and Sunday evening, when the rain moves out.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like our weather will be dry and pleasant Monday through Wednesday. Some rain could return toward the end of the week.

LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS has also backed off on the idea of a full latitude upper trough from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico at the first of October; but a new strong trough does show up a few days later. Lets just say there is little confidence in any specific idea beyond seven days in our beloved "voodoo land". It does look like the weather will be pretty changeable.

TROPICS: Helene continues to recurve over the open Atlantic, and a large tropical wave is moving through the eastern Atlantic. Looks like the models turn that one north, toward the open Atlantic, like most all of the other systems this season. The Gulf of Mexico remains quiet, but we still have a long way to go.

Have to keep this short today since I will be doing the weather on location again at 5:00 and 6:00... I will have the next map discussion video ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow. Have a great evening!

This shot taken in Weaver this morning is from ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Michelle Miklik:

Out walking early today when it was 46 degrees in my tiny corner. Sun rays glancing off a heavily dew-covered grass area looked just like a moderate frost. Of course it was not. An early roundup of lows. We may update this later this morning as additional reports come in:

42 in Black Creek (NE Etowah County)
43 at Collinsville, Gadsden Airport, Heflin, Shoal Creek, Little River Canyon, Russellville, Rainbow City, DeSoto State Park
44 at Ashville, Owens Crossroads, Branchville (St Clair County adjacent to Odenville)
45 at Hanceville, Ellisville, Cullman Airport, Scottsboro, Valley Head, Vinemont, Cullman Agricultural Station
46 in Centreville, Jasper, Hartselle, Pinson, NE Trussville, Albertville, Courtland, Decatur, Fort Payne, Alabaster (Navjho)
47 in Livingston, Grove Oak, Harvest, Hazel Green, Muscle Shoals
48 in Alexander City, Clanton, Huntsville, Tuscaloosa, Meridianville, East Trussville, Concord/Hueytown
49 in Rock Mills, Wadley, Anniston and Alabaster (Highlands section)
50 in Fyffe
51 at Montgomery and Shelby County Airport
52 in Helena, Selma, Clay, Guntersville
53 At Guntersville, Clay and Birmingham Airport

As we all know, on a clear (mostly calm) night, temperatures can vary greatly across North and Central Alabama due to the valleys, hills and ridges. This morning was a prime example. At my location, in the U.S 11 Valley in the NE edge of Trussville, it was 46, while at a private weather station just off Deerfoot Parkway near Clay had 53--a 7-degree difference. The elevation is higher at the latter. Birmingham Airport is, of course, in a valley, but the wind kicked up during the night, preventing anything below 53 degrees.

REGIONAL
40 at Savannah, Tenn.
41 at Gatlinburg and in Cades Cove
38 on NewFound Gap
42 atop 6400-foot Mt. Leconte

NATIONAL
23 in Meridith, Colo.
24 at Green Mountain Dam, Colo.
25 at Doe Lake and Stonington, Mich.
28 in Barrow, Alaska

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

What a great day to remember Earth, Wind, and Fire from 1977:

"Do you remember the 21st night of September?
Love was changing the minds of pretenders
While chasing the clouds away

Our hearts were ringing
In the key that our souls were singing.
As we danced in the night,
Remember how the stars stole the night away

Ba de ya - say do you remember
Ba de ya - dancing in september
Ba de ya - never was a cloudy day"

Most of you know I spent my teenage years in a radio station playing "top 40" hit songs on the radio in the 1970s... those songs were the soundtrack of my life.

SO NICE: I am sure J.B. will post the long list of lows a little later this morning... but at this moment some observations include 45 at Gadsden, 48 at Fort Payne and Huntsville, and 49 at Muscle Shoals and Decatur. The Birmingham Airport is warmer at 57 due to an east wind at 8 mph. We will warm up in a hurry today; most places will wind up in the low 80s by mid-afternoon.

While we enjoy another nice day, a very dynamic storm system will move into the plains; SPC has defined a slight risk of severe weather out there despite the lack of good moisture and instability. I notice the OKC NWS office has already issued a few severe thunderstorm warnings this morning.

MOIST AIR RETURNS: Dewpoints will rise quickly tonight around here, and we will bring back a chance of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night as part of the plains system weakens and lifts toward the Great Lakes. Then, a good pool of moisture will sit over Alabama this weekend, and a few showers and thunderstorms will likely pass through both Saturday and Sunday as the system in the plains slowly works it way in our direction. While the severe weather threat should remain northwest of Alabama over the weekend, we do expect rainfall amounts of one to two inches between tomorrow and Sunday for most communities. As we have been writing, the weekend won't be a total wash-out, but the rain could some at just about any time.

NEXT WEEK: Dry air returns on Monday, and at this point our weather looks dry and pleasant Monday through Wednesday of next week. Some rain could return toward the end of the week.

LONG RANGE: The 00Z run of the GFS has backed off on the development of a long wave trough from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico in the September 28-October 1 time frame. A quick peek at the 06Z GFS shows another look; that run develops a deep, closer upper low over the southern plains. So, model madness is beginning which makes the outlook fuzzy; but we can't rule out some active weather for Alabama if the 06Z run is correct, or the five runs prior to the 00Z run are correct. We will have a much better grasp on this late this weekend and early next week as we get within the seven day time frame.

We also note the 00Z GFS moves a hurricane into South Florida in the October 4-7 time frame; the first time we have seen that in a while. Of course, this is voodoo for now, but I do need to stress this hurricane season has a long way to go, and there is plenty of time for tropical trouble close to home.

TROPICS NOW: Helene will remain out in the open Atlantic, and we will keep an eye on the big wave in the eastern Atlantic. Models are all over the road on that one for now; watch the video for more.

JOIN THE PARTY: Don't forget to bookmark our sister site:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

If you like weather, there is always something interesting to read over there. And, if you register you can submit stories and vote on them to determine which ones are "published" to the main page.

I sure enjoyed seeing my friends at the Elliott Community Center in Gadsden yesterday, and in the town square Jacksonville where I did the 5:00 and 6:00 weather segments. The annual Mountain Echoes Festival is this weekend in downtown Jacksonville; Brenda Ladun will be there and I hope you get a chance to attend. It is a great arts and crafts show on the square, along with music, food, and much more.

I will have the next map disccussion video posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon... enjoy the day!