How about that new 00z ETA suggesting a CHANCE of snow on the ground Christmas morning for Gulf Shores, Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City!

We might have to send our snow chase team to the Florida panhandle for an historic event if this verifies. I guess if anyone deserves a white Christmas, it would be the Alabama and northwest Florida coast considering the suffering they endured with hurricane Ivan earlier this year.

I like the look of this run; it does not have that odd looking bit of energy hanging back over the north Mexico mountains.

In the short term, the ETA suggests a period of light snow or freezing drizzle over northwest Alabama late tomorrow night and early Thursday morning with the departing storm system. Flurries possible elsewhere. These "backwash" kind of events usually don't amount to much; we will have some time to hit it harder if model trends indicate the need to do that.

Peeking at the new 00Z GFS... sure is impressive to see the 1052 mb Arctic high over Montana Thursday morning. Looks COLD for the end of the week. GFS keeps the moisture just offshore.

Just posted the Wednesday morning discussion and forecast over on that page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb

I will put this together in the morning video update, which will be on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...

Lets get a little sleep.

The afternoon video feed is posted:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

And, the afternoon forecast package is posted over on the discussion and forecast page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb

The pre-Christmas storm is right on time, and the surface low track still favors the heaviest snow over parts of northern Kentucky, southern Indiana, and western Ohio. Those folks could see over six inches before it all winds down. Some snow could get on the ground as far south as I-40 (Memphis, Nashville)...

We will still hang on to flurries here on Thursday morning as the cold air rushes in, but nothing to get excited about .

Severe weather possibilities here still look rather small tomorrow despite the favorable dynamics. The air is simply too stable. If we see any severe storms, they should be near the coast.

The Gulf of Mexico will be nervous on Christmas eve and Christmas day, which makes me a little nervous, but no evidence of any of that moisture moving north in time for snow. The risk of a white Christmas continues to fade for south Alabama, but don't give up just yet. Something looks fishy in the 12Z model output as the GFS and ETA hang energy back over the Mexico mountains for two days before it moves out and brings rain in here Monday of next week. Will be very interested to see the 00Z runs tonight with the new upper air data set.

Gotta run down to the weather office at the TV station...

Busy putting the afternoon forecast package together, filling in for J.B. today so he can have a little down time this afternoon. I will have the forecast package ready and posted on the seven day discussion and forecast page by 2:00 or so.

The new 12Z guidance is in the house, and the models continue to trend toward holding back the energy over Mexico and Texas at the end of the week, not bringing it out until early next week. This favors a nice storm system in the western Gulf that will indeed bring precipitation to most of Alabama, but unfortunately for the snow lovers by the time it gets here early next week the cold air is long gone.

Will have much more on the afternoon video update, which will be posted by 3:30...

Will the models be naughty or nice to those dreaming of a white Christmas?

Watch the morning video update:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

By the way, you can go to claus.com and enter your name to see if YOU have been naughty or nice, you know.

*Pre-Christmas storm: Give the ole GFS credit... this thing has been showing a pre-Christmas storm now for two weeks. The surface low will move from southeast Texas to near Tuscaloosa and on to Erie tomorrow and Thursday. This track means some chance of snow for our pals in places like Memphis, Jackson, and Nashville, and some risk of severe weather down in far south Alabama. Instabilty is really nil around here, so I doubt if we will have to go on tornado duty tomorrow. This is good, nobody likes severe storms at Christmas.

As we go back in the deep freeze, we will maintain the chance of flurries or some light snow early Thursday, but it won't amount to anything here as the departing storm heads northeast.

*Christmas storm: The 00Z GFS has a rather odd solution for the Christmas storm, holding back energy over Mexico... not reaching us until after Christmas. The deep moisture stays over the Gulf of Mexico. Sure looks bleak for snow lovers up our way (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden), but if you live in Dothan, Greenville, Ozark, or Enterprise, don't give up hope based on this one run.

Everybody will be cold on Christmas with low temperatures in the teens.

AND, this will be the last opportunity for snow for a while. The pattern flips, we go back into mild air for at least the following two weeks after Christmas.

On a final note, we welcome the winter season today (in terms of astronomy)... the winter solstice is this morning at 6:42. This is the shortest day of the year in terms of the number of daylight hours; the days begin to "get longer" now.