The Tuesday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Had a good time speaking today to the senior adults down in Pea Ridge in rural Shelby county. And yes, there are rural sections of Shelby county. Pea Ridge is one of the higher places in the county, and is in the general area between Alabaster and West Blocton. Thanks for the hospitality and the great lunch! I took the long way back home, and drove through Marvel and then across the Canaha River into West Blocton, and then back to the station via I-59/20 and I-459. Had to use the air conditioning on the way back!
Here are the highlights for the next 15 days:
*We are watching the newly developed thunderstorms just south of Birmingham along the surface boundary. Some of these could produce some small hail this evening, but they should weaken rather quickly after the sun goes down.
*A nice disturbance aloft will bring widespread rain to Alabama beginning tomorrow afternoon and into tomorrow night. Some spots could see amounts over one inch before the rain tapers off by midday Thursday. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible, but the air should be rather stable and we don't expect any severe weather problems.
*Our weather should be dry and cool on Friday and Saturday with the rain remaining near the Gulf coast. However, I expect to see some rain around here by Sunday and Monday of next week with an overrunning pattern developing. The GFS looks pretty dry, but I don't like the way it looks.
*The 12Z run of the GFS wants to hold the cold air north of Alabama until a major storm passes through here about Wednesday or Thursday of next week (March 2-3). The pattern after that looks chilly, and maybe even very cold. Once again, like I wrote here this morning there is no way to resolve details this far in advance. But, for the snow lovers, I think you will have at least one more decent chance of getting a little action before spring arrives, and it should be in that March 2-10 time frame. Will be a fun pattern to forecast.
J.B.'s afternoon forecast package has arrived as I was writing this; I will post to the seven day forecast and discussion page in minutes...
February Heat Wave
February 22, 2005, 3:28 pmSomething For Everyone
February 22, 2005, 6:51 am
The Tuesday morning video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We do really have something for everyone in this forecast package. But again, let me say up front, this is a difficult forecast with lots of error potential in both the short term and the long term. But, we must wade into the water anyway. Here we go:
*MILD TODAY: We should top 70 again today, and we will be watching for more strong storms during the peak of the daytime heat. Today the best chance of them will be along and south of I-20. SPC now has a slight risk of central Alabama, mostly along and south of I-20.
*MID-WEEK RAIN: The models are much more agressive with the next impulse coming through, with rain becoming widespread tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. We probably need to hit the rain a little harder during the day tomorrow. Most of the rain should be over by early Thursday morning.
*WEEKEND: While the GFS is mostly dry, the European develops a significant storm in the northern Gulf, which would suggest wet weather here on Sunday and Monday. I like the European concept, and we continue to mention some rain on Sunday, becoming more likely Sunday night into Monday morning.
*NEXT WEEK: I still expect a pretty good cold snap during the first week of March. The European has some -30 C air at 850 mb over Canada dropping south. And, there are a wide variety of storm systems and waves showing up on the various models runs, I don't even want to go there right now. It is all we can do to figure out the short term precipitation in this kind of pattern. But, snow fans, we have seen several good set ups for the deep south AT TIMES. There is simply no way we can resolve details in this kind of pattern in the long range. The forecast will remain challenging to say the least.
*STORM ALERT 2005: Don't forget we will be n Oxford this Thursday night at 7:00 at the Oxford Civic Center. Bring the whole family and get there early for a good seat!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
We do really have something for everyone in this forecast package. But again, let me say up front, this is a difficult forecast with lots of error potential in both the short term and the long term. But, we must wade into the water anyway. Here we go:
*MILD TODAY: We should top 70 again today, and we will be watching for more strong storms during the peak of the daytime heat. Today the best chance of them will be along and south of I-20. SPC now has a slight risk of central Alabama, mostly along and south of I-20.
*MID-WEEK RAIN: The models are much more agressive with the next impulse coming through, with rain becoming widespread tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. We probably need to hit the rain a little harder during the day tomorrow. Most of the rain should be over by early Thursday morning.
*WEEKEND: While the GFS is mostly dry, the European develops a significant storm in the northern Gulf, which would suggest wet weather here on Sunday and Monday. I like the European concept, and we continue to mention some rain on Sunday, becoming more likely Sunday night into Monday morning.
*NEXT WEEK: I still expect a pretty good cold snap during the first week of March. The European has some -30 C air at 850 mb over Canada dropping south. And, there are a wide variety of storm systems and waves showing up on the various models runs, I don't even want to go there right now. It is all we can do to figure out the short term precipitation in this kind of pattern. But, snow fans, we have seen several good set ups for the deep south AT TIMES. There is simply no way we can resolve details in this kind of pattern in the long range. The forecast will remain challenging to say the least.
*STORM ALERT 2005: Don't forget we will be n Oxford this Thursday night at 7:00 at the Oxford Civic Center. Bring the whole family and get there early for a good seat!
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