The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Sure enjoyed the drive up to Bear Creek today... that is a community in the northeast corner of Marion County between Haleyville and Phil Campbell... look for the kids on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. That wraps up the school weather program tour for the 2005-2006 school year. We have seen literally thousands of kids along the way. Thanks to all of the teachers and children for having us! We are booking dates now for the 2006-2007 school year.
TONIGHT: SPC has dropped the slight risk for far north Alabama for tonight, and sure looks like most communities will be dry. A weak band of showers did move through the Tennessee Valley earlier in the day, but those fell apart as they moved to the southeast. I guess a rogue shower might pop up somewhere tonight, but I highly doubt it.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Dry and warm weather continues. Highs well into the 80s; the chance of rain is tiny. The NAM tries to ramp up the chance of storms by Wednesday afternoon, but that solution is tossed out for now.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A short wave trough aloft will pass north of here, and a few scattered afternoon showers or storms will be possible on these days. But, "scattered" is the key word. Afternoon temperatures will stay very warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Ridging aloft is the big story, that should mean mostly warm and dry weather Saturday through Monday. Warm air aloft should keep a lid on convection for the most part, but a few isolated afternoon storms might show up over the weekend. Looks like we will be close to 90 degrees each afternoon. It will really feel like summer, which I guess you have to expect for Memorial Day.
TROPICS: The clouds in the Gulf are on the east side of an upper air low south/southeast of Galveston.This does not favor any tropical development at the surface. SSTs are also only in the 70s over the northern Gulf; you really need those at 80 (F) or higher for tropical storm formation.
The GFS does develop a tropical system on the northern coast of Cuba around June 3, and moves it parallel to the east coast of the U.S. in the following days. This, most likely, is bogus, but it is not out of the question.
WEATHER BRAINS: Dr. William Gray, the hurricane guru, will be our guest on our weekly 30 minute podcast tonight. Can't wait to hear what he has to say; since NOAA was out with their hurricane season outlook earlier today. We will most likely have the podcast posted early tomorrow morning, by 6:30 or so. At that time it will be available on the web, and on iTunes!
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
Warm Spring Afternoons
May 22, 2006, 3:08 pmAward Winning Students
May 22, 2006, 12:47 pmIt was my distinct pleasure this morning to participate in the awards ceremony at Montevallo Elementary School (MES) in Shelby County. The invitation came from teacher Jo Ellen Mattingly who is the Gifted Resource Teacher at MES. Ms. Mattingly and several teams of students participated in the online Alabama Stock Market Simulation, a simulation sponsored by the UAB Center for Economic Education to promote financial and economic literacy among Alabama students.
The online simulation has some basic rules and each teams starts with $100,000 to invest. The three-member teams of students review, evaluate, and decide on which companies in which to invest. Two of the 13 teams at Montevallo placed in the regional competition. A fourth-grade team won first place in the regional and another came in third. These two teams also placed second and fourth in the statewide competition coming in ahead of many teams composed of students in high school. Below are some pictures of the teams.
With Brian Peters are (l-to-r) Seth Hawks, Kenny Oswald, and Chris Seeboth.
With Brian Peters are (l-to-r) Miles Swindle, Danielle Blake, and Elizabeth Fredericks.
Their accomplishment is quite noteworthy. The first place team turned $100,000 into $115,272 at the end of the ten-week simulation while the third place team had $112,413. There were 76 teams in the division consisting of grades 4th through 8th. The statewide competition was all schools including grades 4th through 12th.
Each team had a nickname. The third place team called themselves the Alabama Elephants and the first place team was The Alvas, named for a person who has been instrumental in giving rise to the populatirty of skateboarding, a hobby the whole team enjoys.
Shelby County can be very proud that three of the top five teams were from the county. Statewide winner was Oak Mountain High School.
I had a wonderful morning talking to the winners from the two teams pictured. And it was thrilling to hear about the competition and to see the enthusiasm the students showed for the project. And they are really hooked on this with plans to compete again next year as fifth graders.
-Brian-
by Brian Peters
in General Thoughts
WEATHER BY THE NUMBERS--Monday 5/22/06
May 22, 2006, 10:52 am
* 80% is the probability that the 2006 hurricane season will be more active than usual based on the NOAA outlook issued at 10 o'clock this morning. Read the details here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
* 50% plus is the numer of landfalling hurricanes or tropical storms in the USA that produce at least one spin-off tornado. Most of them produce more than one.
* 141 is the number of tornadoes produced by Hurricane Beulah in 1967. That is an all-time record.
* 150 mph is the recorded gust of the great 1926 hurricane on September 18 that devasatated downtown Miami. Every building was either damaged or destroyed. Later this hurricane moved across the North Gulf of Mexico coast. Nearly every warehouse, pier and vessel in Pensacola Bay was damaged or destroyed. It later made landfall on the Louisiana coast.
* 67 is the total population of Loving County in far West Texas near the SE corner of New Mexico. Can you imagine?
* 6 is the number of counties that adjoin Jefferson County in North-Central Alabama. They are Blount, St. Clair, Shelby, Tuscaloosa, Walker and Bibb. Only a tiny part of Bibb County touches Jefferson. Studies have shown that most people cannot name the counties adjacent to their own. It is important to know that when you see or hear severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings.
* 8 is the number of counties that touch Marengo County in West Alabama. One of the counties is Dallas, but only a small sliver of land, extending east from the Consul community, reaches over to touch a narrow western extention of Dallas County. That little narrow stirp of land prevents Wilcox County from touching the panhandle of Perry County.
* 19 was the USA low this morning at Embarrass, Minnesota. A widespread frost and freeze hit the Upper Midwest this morning. In places it was a hard freeze. Here is a list of some of the colder temperatures and it is very late in the season for it to get this cold:
19 in Embarrass, Minn.
20 at Chatam Experiment Farm, Mich.
21 in Doe Lake in Stonington, Mich.
22 in Champion, Mich.
24 at Iron Mountain and Randville, Mich.
25 at Wakefield, Mich. and Eagle River, Wisc.
26 at Rhinelander, Wisc.
27 in Marquette and Houghton, Mich. and Hibbing and Orr, Minn.
* 111 was the national high Sunday in Wink, Tex.
* 293,655,404 was the estimated 2004 population of the USA.
* 50,744 square miles is the land area of Alabama.
* 261,797 square miles is the land area of Texas.
* 83 is the sea surface temperature over the NW Caribbean, but over the north and NE Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are still in the 70s.
* 50% plus is the numer of landfalling hurricanes or tropical storms in the USA that produce at least one spin-off tornado. Most of them produce more than one.
* 141 is the number of tornadoes produced by Hurricane Beulah in 1967. That is an all-time record.
* 150 mph is the recorded gust of the great 1926 hurricane on September 18 that devasatated downtown Miami. Every building was either damaged or destroyed. Later this hurricane moved across the North Gulf of Mexico coast. Nearly every warehouse, pier and vessel in Pensacola Bay was damaged or destroyed. It later made landfall on the Louisiana coast.
* 67 is the total population of Loving County in far West Texas near the SE corner of New Mexico. Can you imagine?
* 6 is the number of counties that adjoin Jefferson County in North-Central Alabama. They are Blount, St. Clair, Shelby, Tuscaloosa, Walker and Bibb. Only a tiny part of Bibb County touches Jefferson. Studies have shown that most people cannot name the counties adjacent to their own. It is important to know that when you see or hear severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings.
* 8 is the number of counties that touch Marengo County in West Alabama. One of the counties is Dallas, but only a small sliver of land, extending east from the Consul community, reaches over to touch a narrow western extention of Dallas County. That little narrow stirp of land prevents Wilcox County from touching the panhandle of Perry County.
* 19 was the USA low this morning at Embarrass, Minnesota. A widespread frost and freeze hit the Upper Midwest this morning. In places it was a hard freeze. Here is a list of some of the colder temperatures and it is very late in the season for it to get this cold:
19 in Embarrass, Minn.
20 at Chatam Experiment Farm, Mich.
21 in Doe Lake in Stonington, Mich.
22 in Champion, Mich.
24 at Iron Mountain and Randville, Mich.
25 at Wakefield, Mich. and Eagle River, Wisc.
26 at Rhinelander, Wisc.
27 in Marquette and Houghton, Mich. and Hibbing and Orr, Minn.
* 111 was the national high Sunday in Wink, Tex.
* 293,655,404 was the estimated 2004 population of the USA.
* 50,744 square miles is the land area of Alabama.
* 261,797 square miles is the land area of Texas.
* 83 is the sea surface temperature over the NW Caribbean, but over the north and NE Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are still in the 70s.
New NOAA 2006 Hurricane Season Outlook
May 22, 2006, 10:33 am
The new 2006 outlook was issued at 10 o'clock this morning during a news conference at the National Hurricane Center in the Miami area.
You can see the full text here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
You can see the full text here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml
by J.B. Elliott
in Severe Weather
Hurricane Season Forecast
May 22, 2006, 8:27 am
This is National Hurricane Prepardness Week. As part of that, NOAA will issue their 2006 hurricane season outlook at 10 o'clock CST this morning.
Dr. William Gray, who heads a well respected hurricane and tropical storm research team at Colorado State Universiity, Fort Collins, will be stepping into the background after 22 years of issuing the forecasts. However, He will still be part of the team and closely involved. Starting with their next forecast. Phil Klotzbach will assume the primary responsibility for the forecasts. Phil has been a part of Dr. Gray's team for five years and Dr. Gray has much confidence in him.
Here is a summary of Dr. Gray's 2006 season forecast issued in December. Not sure when the next update will be:
17 named storms (there were 28 in 2005)
85 days with a tropical storm/hurricane in progress (115 days in 2005)
9 hurricanes (14 in 2005)
5 intense hurricanes (7 in 2005) Intense means Category 3,4,5
81% chance that an intense hurricane will make landfall in the USA. (average for the last 100 years 52%)
64% chance of an intense hurricane landfall on U.S East Coast, including Florida Peninsula (31% 100-year average)
47% chance of an intense hurricane landfalling somewhere along the Northwest Florida-Alabama-Mississippi-Louisiana-Texas Coast. (100-year average 30%)
If this forecast holds up, we will have another active season but not as active as last season.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
Water temperatures are already up to 83 in the NW Carribean and 81 in the SE Gulf. However, over much of the North and NE Gulf, temperatures are still relatively cool--in the mid and upper 70s. Tropical storms and hurricanes need water temperatures at least 80 to have much of a chance. The storms really like water temperatures around 84 and 85. When they warm to 86 and 87, it is like turning James Spann loose in an all-you-can-eat- BBQ joint. They go beserk (assuming all other factors are favorable)
2006 NAMES
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William
Last season, with 26 named storms, we went five deep into the Greek alphabet. First time ever.
DR. WILLIAM GRAY AND WEATHER BRAINS
Dr. Gray will be a guest on our weekly Weather Brains taping tonight. You can hear it tomorrow morning.
Another interesting site about tropical storms/hurricanes:
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html
Dr. William Gray, who heads a well respected hurricane and tropical storm research team at Colorado State Universiity, Fort Collins, will be stepping into the background after 22 years of issuing the forecasts. However, He will still be part of the team and closely involved. Starting with their next forecast. Phil Klotzbach will assume the primary responsibility for the forecasts. Phil has been a part of Dr. Gray's team for five years and Dr. Gray has much confidence in him.
Here is a summary of Dr. Gray's 2006 season forecast issued in December. Not sure when the next update will be:
17 named storms (there were 28 in 2005)
85 days with a tropical storm/hurricane in progress (115 days in 2005)
9 hurricanes (14 in 2005)
5 intense hurricanes (7 in 2005) Intense means Category 3,4,5
81% chance that an intense hurricane will make landfall in the USA. (average for the last 100 years 52%)
64% chance of an intense hurricane landfall on U.S East Coast, including Florida Peninsula (31% 100-year average)
47% chance of an intense hurricane landfalling somewhere along the Northwest Florida-Alabama-Mississippi-Louisiana-Texas Coast. (100-year average 30%)
If this forecast holds up, we will have another active season but not as active as last season.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
Water temperatures are already up to 83 in the NW Carribean and 81 in the SE Gulf. However, over much of the North and NE Gulf, temperatures are still relatively cool--in the mid and upper 70s. Tropical storms and hurricanes need water temperatures at least 80 to have much of a chance. The storms really like water temperatures around 84 and 85. When they warm to 86 and 87, it is like turning James Spann loose in an all-you-can-eat- BBQ joint. They go beserk (assuming all other factors are favorable)
2006 NAMES
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William
Last season, with 26 named storms, we went five deep into the Greek alphabet. First time ever.
DR. WILLIAM GRAY AND WEATHER BRAINS
Dr. Gray will be a guest on our weekly Weather Brains taping tonight. You can hear it tomorrow morning.
Another interesting site about tropical storms/hurricanes:
http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Monday Morning Thoughts
May 22, 2006, 6:24 am
The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Today I will begin the annual series "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches". The first post will actually come tonight, and it will feature five parts. Here on the blog I will keep adding the new parts, and by Friday the entire trip will be ready. So, if you have a beach trip planned take a look at my journey through Alabama on the "roads less traveled". I do my best to make the route every year fun, scenic, entertaining, educational, and, or course, one with lots of great places to eat along the way.
TROPICS: Seems like everyone wants to know whats up in the Gulf of Mexico. Watch the video today for more... but you can see the mass of clouds in the Gulf this morning is mainly on the east side of an upper low in the western Gulf of Mexico. Not a good set-up for an early season tropical storm. We also note SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the northern Gulf are still a little cool; mostly mid to upper 70s. You can find that good 80 degree water over the southern Gulf. Bottom line is that I don't expect any early season tropical storm down there this week.
BUT... next week might be a different story. The GFS hints at an anti-cyclone over the Gulf, warmer water, and some type of depression forming that might move toward the central Gulf coast. But, remember, the GFS is famous for bogus tropical systems beyond seven days, so I sure wouldn't hang your hat on that solution.
We will watch for any old, dying surface front that can make it into the northern Gulf waters. That is usually a favorable setup for early season systems. And, we have to remember early season systems are mainly known for heavy rain and flooding. Our friends in Houston remember tropical storm Allison, which dropped over 30 inches of rain on their city with extemely serious flooding. Tropical storm Alberto in July 1994 produced rain amounts over 20 inches in parts of southern Georgia.
AROUND HERE: A stalled surface boundary continues north of Alabama, and SPC once again has a slight risk of severe weather today in the general area from Memphis to Savannah. Seems like the best chance of scattered storms again today will be north of here, but last night's storms over southern Tennessee might kick an outflow boundary into North Alabama, which might mean scattered storms a little deeper into the state this afternoon and tonight. I still get the idea most communities along I-20 will stay dry.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The boundary fizzles out, and with warm temperatures aloft and no low level convergence the chance of rain looks extremely small. Warm and dry weather will be the story with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 80s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Guess we might mention a small risk of a shower late Thursday, but the better chance of scattered showers and storms will come Friday as deeper moisture moves in from the south.
WEEKEND PEEK: The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty "normal"; warm and humid with a good deal of sun, but also a few scattered showers and storms. Highs over the weekend in the mid 80s, maybe upper 80s in spots.
BUSY DAY: I am looking forward to driving up to Bear Creek, in the far northeast corner of Marion County, for a school weather program today. This is the last regular "KIDCAM" trip of the year since most school systems are out in a few days. I hope to have the afternoon video on time (3:30) this afternoon, but it might be a few minutes late due to the length of the trip!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Today I will begin the annual series "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches". The first post will actually come tonight, and it will feature five parts. Here on the blog I will keep adding the new parts, and by Friday the entire trip will be ready. So, if you have a beach trip planned take a look at my journey through Alabama on the "roads less traveled". I do my best to make the route every year fun, scenic, entertaining, educational, and, or course, one with lots of great places to eat along the way.
TROPICS: Seems like everyone wants to know whats up in the Gulf of Mexico. Watch the video today for more... but you can see the mass of clouds in the Gulf this morning is mainly on the east side of an upper low in the western Gulf of Mexico. Not a good set-up for an early season tropical storm. We also note SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the northern Gulf are still a little cool; mostly mid to upper 70s. You can find that good 80 degree water over the southern Gulf. Bottom line is that I don't expect any early season tropical storm down there this week.
BUT... next week might be a different story. The GFS hints at an anti-cyclone over the Gulf, warmer water, and some type of depression forming that might move toward the central Gulf coast. But, remember, the GFS is famous for bogus tropical systems beyond seven days, so I sure wouldn't hang your hat on that solution.
We will watch for any old, dying surface front that can make it into the northern Gulf waters. That is usually a favorable setup for early season systems. And, we have to remember early season systems are mainly known for heavy rain and flooding. Our friends in Houston remember tropical storm Allison, which dropped over 30 inches of rain on their city with extemely serious flooding. Tropical storm Alberto in July 1994 produced rain amounts over 20 inches in parts of southern Georgia.
AROUND HERE: A stalled surface boundary continues north of Alabama, and SPC once again has a slight risk of severe weather today in the general area from Memphis to Savannah. Seems like the best chance of scattered storms again today will be north of here, but last night's storms over southern Tennessee might kick an outflow boundary into North Alabama, which might mean scattered storms a little deeper into the state this afternoon and tonight. I still get the idea most communities along I-20 will stay dry.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The boundary fizzles out, and with warm temperatures aloft and no low level convergence the chance of rain looks extremely small. Warm and dry weather will be the story with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 80s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Guess we might mention a small risk of a shower late Thursday, but the better chance of scattered showers and storms will come Friday as deeper moisture moves in from the south.
WEEKEND PEEK: The Memorial Day weekend looks pretty "normal"; warm and humid with a good deal of sun, but also a few scattered showers and storms. Highs over the weekend in the mid 80s, maybe upper 80s in spots.
BUSY DAY: I am looking forward to driving up to Bear Creek, in the far northeast corner of Marion County, for a school weather program today. This is the last regular "KIDCAM" trip of the year since most school systems are out in a few days. I hope to have the afternoon video on time (3:30) this afternoon, but it might be a few minutes late due to the length of the trip!
Page :
1