RITA STILL A POWERFUL HIGH CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

TRACK MAY BE SHIFTING BACK TO WEST TOWARD GALVESTON A BIT...

FAST FACTS...HURRICANE RITA
10 PM CDT
LOCATED...LAT 26.2 N LON 90.3 W OR 350 Miles SE of Galveston, TX
MOVEMENT WNW 10 mph
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 MPH (Catgeory 4)
MINIMUM PRESSURE 917 millibars (27.08 inches) in fix made at 8:44 pm CDT

FUTURE TRACK
The evening model runs are coming in now and the track forecasts are tightly clustered near or just east of Houston. After wobbling a bit to the right during the afternoon, the hurricane continues on a west northwest track which should take it to the Upper Texas Coast, It could go in just north of Houston/Galveston, or just to the south of that location.

INTENSITY FORECAST
Hurricane Rita is not quite as organized as it was earlier this evening and certainly last night. The eyewall is ragged and open in one direction. But people, it is still an extremely dangerous strong Category Four hurricane. It is a large storm, and will bring devastation to a wide area and its effects will be felt over a huge distance. In addition, Rita still has to go over some warmer water before landfall, and it will be going through the intensification phase of an eywall replacement cycle, so it may intensity a bit again. The official forecast calls for it to be at least at Category 3 hurricane. at landfall

SPOT REPORTS - 9 PM CDT
--Mississippi Coast--
BILOXI CLOUDY 82 72 69 SE16G40 29.83R
Thunderstorms over the Mississippi Sound are going to be rotating on shore during the next couple of hours.
--Louisana--
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 80 73 79 E15G28 29.78F
--Texas--
GALVESTON CLEAR 85 71 63 E3 29.76R HX 90
PORT LAVACA CLEAR 82 75 78 S3 29.76S

BAD SITUATION IN HOUSTON
Imagine two million people all evacuating a major metro area during about an 18 hour period. No contraflow plan in place, What you get is gridlock on steriods. Motorsists stuck in traffic, gridlock, out of fuel and water...overheating and staled cars making jams worse.

National guard trucks are now providing gas to stuck motorists. Buses were being marshalled in case the jams do not break up. At 9:45 p.m. traffic on I-10 is finally moving at a good speed.
It is the largest evacuation in history of Lone Star State, with two million people fleeing the storm.

ANOTHER ALLISON SCENARIO?
Remember Tropical Storm Allison four years ago? The storm moved inland near Houston, then looped back on itself and dumped up to 40 inches of rain over the eastern suburbs of the city. Catastrophic flooding resulted in parts of the city. Rita coukld dump upwards of 25 inches of rain on parts of eastern Texas and western Louisiana during the next few days if it slows after landfall.

MORE PROBLEMS FOR NEW ORLEANS?
A surge of 1-3 feet is expected on Lake Ponchartrain and 2-6 feet at the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
Rains of 2-4 inches will cause additional problems. Winds may gust to tropical storm force and tornadoes may form.

Today was the first official day of autumn.

But it did not arrive.

I looked out the window all day, looking for Autumn.

I could not find it anywhere.

Today's high at Birmingham Airport was 90. It was the 12th day so far in September with 90 or higher. In fact, the high for the first 22 days of the month has averaged 90.

Two days had 95.

We were short-changed.

Ironically, 22 years ago today, 1983, we had a low of 39. That is the earliest on record for Birmingham to have a low in the 30s.

I hope winter does not arrive before autumn...

Fast, basic facts about Rita as of 7 pm, CDT:

LOCATION: Near latitude 26.0N, longitude 89.9W or 350 miles ESE of Galveston and 290 miles SE of Cameron, La.

MOVEMENT: Toward the WNW at 10 mph. NHC says Rita will reach the SW Louisiana and Upper Texas Coast late Friday.

WINDS: Max sustained winds 145 mph with higher gusts. Rita is a broad-based monster. Tropical storm force winds extend out 205 miles. If that is the same all around the storm, that means 410 miles wide--about as far as Birmingham to Little Rock. Hurricane force winds extend out 75 miles.

PRESSURE: Lowest 913 millibars or 26.96 inches.

Scan down for earlier posts containing much more information.

And...this link:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

Hope by now this link has become familiar to all of you. It is a great source for a storehouse of information on tropical weather, including our non-friend, Hurricane Rita.

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

Also scan down to see earlier post containing still valid information. Here are some extra notes:

* At 6pm, this report from data Buoy No. 42001 located about 210 land miles SE of Southwest Pass, Louisiana: Wind SW 83 with gusts to 112 mph. 24 foot waves. Pressure 27.34 inches and falling rapidly. Can you imagine getting caught out there in a rubber raft. Those huge battering waves surely are making the sharks use some very foul language.

* The 6 o'clock report from New Orleans Airport...nothing unusal...cloudy with wind east at 17, gusts to 24 mph. New Orleans may get 2 to 4 inches of rain from Rita.

* The National Weather Service in Lake Charles warns that major river flooding is likely after Rita moves inland. Rainfall could total 8 to 12 inches over SW Louisiana and SE Texas. They also warn that winds may reach 100 mph or higher after midnight Friday night with significant damage, because those extremely high winds will be of long duration. They expect numerous trees and powerlines to come down with widespread extended power outages. Some buildings will also be destroyed.

* The National Weather Service in Houston expects hurricane force winds (75 mph or higher) to reach the upper Texas coast late Friday evening. The Weather Service also is forecasting these peak gusts during Rita for the following counties:

Galveston County, including the City of Galveston...110 mph
Liberty County...140 mph
Chambers County...155 mph
Harris County, including Houston...90 mph

You can bet those 140 and 155 mph wind gusts will cause widespread destruction.

Remember to use this link for all the information about Hurricane Rita. It has all the advisories, discussions, local statements, the official track forecast, links to satellite pictures and radar.

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

But, we add this extra discussion and information:

Don't be fooled by the fluctuation in Rita's strength. Even though her sustained winds are down somewhat, she is still a very powerful and dangerous Category 4 hurricane. Late this afternoon she was centered near latitude 25.8 N, longtitude 89.5 W, which is about 405 miles SE of Galveston and about 390 miles SE of Port Arthur, Texas. Movement was WNW at 9 mph.

Highest sustained winds were 145 mph with higher gusts. She will fluctuate more before she eventually makes landfall late tomorrow night or very early Saturday.

And landfall? That's what we will have to watch very closely. The latest projection from the National Hurricane Center sends her inland between Galveston and Port Arthur. That is about midway between Galveston and the Louisiana border. Storm surge will be huge, especially along and to the right of the center. Rainfall is going to be extremely heavy with some areas getting 8 to 12 inches and even as much as 15 inches over SE Texas and SW Louisiana.

Even scarier is the fact that she may slow down or stall inland and produce some 25-inch rainfall amounts, which would cause enormous inland flooding. In recent years, more people have died because of inland flooding produced by hurricanes than any other way.

NEW ORLEANS
Rita may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches over SE Louisiana, including New Orleans. That is very bad news for the Crescent City.

ALABAMA
This afternoon some showers spiraled inland from the SE due to the broad circulation around Rita. Late this afternoon some of those showers were producing heavy rain north of the Mobile area.

LATE AFTERNOON SPOT REPORTS
New Orleans Airport...rain, wind SE 15, gusts 28 mph
Beaumont...sunny, wind NE 12
Houston (Bush Airport)...mostly sunny, wind E 15, gusts 22
Galveston...mostly sunny, light and variable winds 5 mph
Port Arthur...sunny, wind NE 12, temperature 99!
Dallas (where a lot of people fled inland today)...sunny, 100 degrees, light wind

New recon shows pressure down to 911 mb... pressure in Rita continues to fall. Full vortex message is below; a complete post coming up shortly from J.B.

URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING

Right after I posted the update below, a new recon vortex message just came in. Pressure down slightly, winds up. Not good...

Pressure down to 913 mb, max flight level winds up to 133 knots.

AND... this interesting note from a reader:

James,

My daughter, her husband and their new born are trying to evacuate Galveston. They are going to San Antonio. They are on I-10 west. Do you know it they have turned that road into an all west bound road or what the rate of speed is? The last time we heard from them, they had been on the road for 12 hours and had gone about 50 miles. Any information you could give me would be appreciated.

Thank you.


I do understand that all I-10 lanes are now open for westbound traffic only headed to San Antonio. What a mess...

More shortly... actual vortex message is below:

000
URNT12 KNHC 221948Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1913Z
B. 25 DEG 44 MIN N
89 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2329 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 43 DEG 133 KT
G. 309 DEG 10 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 13 C/ 3059 M
J. 20 C/ 3044 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. C018-48
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

NHC continues to adjust the track eastward... they are now projecting landfall between Galveston and the Sabine River pass (TX/LA border) late tomorrow night.

This would be better news for Galveston and Houston. Not great news, but better news. Bad news for Port Arthur, Beaumont. and Lake Charles. There is still a significant threat of serious storm surge and wind damage at Galveston, and inland wind damage and flooding at Houston.

Notes from the forecast desk:

*Once again I remind you we have little skill and experience in forecasting the intensity changes in a storm this deep and strong. Be ready for a surprise one way or another. Folks on the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast must continue to prepare for a category four hurricane, similar to Katrina. It will take a long time for a storm of this size and strength to spin down even if weakening continues.

*The pressure rise has stopped for now. Seems like the core pressure is becoming steady around 915 mb. Latest recon vortex message shows 914 mb.

*Max flight level winds (10,000 feet, or 700 mb) are down to 125 knots, or 144 mph. THIS IS STILL A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. Don't let the morning pressure rise and decrease in wind fool you.

*Great concern here over Rita stalling out, and looping back to the southwest over southeast Texas. Latest QPF guidance shows a bullseye of 16 inches; I think some spots will see 20 inches of rain in the area between Houston and Lufkin.

J.B. will have frequent Rita updates on the blog tonight... so stay tuned.

THE ALABAMA STORY: We will mention a few isolated showers this evening, and again tomorrow. Most places will stay dry. A few scattered showers and storms are possible over the weekend with deeper moisture in place, but no wash out. Quite frankly, we could use a good wash-out, but most folks would not like to see one over the weekend. The best chance of scattered showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.

Our next beneficial, widespread rain event is still probably one week out... a front will stall out near the Alabama/Tennessee border toward the end of next week, and some of the moisture from Rita could be involved at that time. Showers and storms look like a good bet in the 7 to 10 day forecast period.

HELLO AUTUMN: The equinox is coming up at 5:23 this afternoon. So long summer 2005.

Next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow... stay tuned to the blog for late updates on Rita and all other issues here in the weather office.

But don't think of that as great news. She is a strong Category 4. A few quick early afternoon notes:

* Her 1 pm position: Near Latitude 25.5N, Longitude 89.2W. That translates to 435 miles SE of Galveston or 430 miles SE of Port Arthur.

* Moving WNW 9

* Radar since 1 pm, has shown a slight northward jog. Don't let that fool you. She will wobble at times as all great hurricanes do.

* Latest landfall forecast is still about midway between Galveston and the Texas-Louisiana border.

* Very anxious to see the 4 pm full advisory. By that time, a new group of warnings/watches will likely be issued and also a new track forecast.

* Buckets and Buckets of rain (no, No. 3 washtubs) will prove to be a huge problem. NHC says up to 15 inches for SE Texas/SW Louisiana landfall area.

* Still a chance that after Rita gets inland, she may get tired and simply sit down for awhile, The NHC fears some possible 25 inch rainfall amounts if that happens. Enormous flood potential.

* Enormous traffic snarl evacuating Houston. Traffic at a crawl. Traffic backed up as much as 100 miles. Lot of people simply ran out of gas. If the current landfall and track forecast is correct, it make take a bit of pressure off Galveston and Houston. However, Rita has not offered a written money-back guarantee.

* At 1:30 this afternoon, showers were showing up offshore from NW Florida over to South Louisiana. They were in bands moving toward the WNW. Some light showers already inland over Coastal Alabama.

SPOT REPORT
Buoy No. 42001 about 210 land miles south of Southwest Pass, La., wind north62 with gusts to 81 mph with 33-foot waves. Nothing unusual yet onshore in SE Texas and Coastal Louisiana.

Please scan down to earlier post to see a list of warnings and coastal effects.

And, please don't relax too much because Rita has weakened some. I have a friend named Rita. Next time I see her, I am going to fuss at her.

PERSONAL NOTE: Hope you will pardon this personal note but I am so sorry to hear today that the Birmingham Post-Herald will cease publication tomorrow. I go way back with them. I used to subscribe to both the Birmingham Post and the Birmingham Age-Herald. I remember the day in 1950, when they merged and published the first copy of the Post-Herald. I will have to save tomorrow morning's edition for old memories.

I am a newspaper junkie and a wannabe newspaper reporter.

Be sure and continue to refer to this link for a vast amount of information on Hurricane Rita. You will find links to satellite photographs, radar, the official tracking chart and a number of discussions and advisories:

http://www.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.html

But we want to give you a late morning roundup of what's going on and discuss how Rita will affect other familiar places along the Gulf Coast. She was located late this morning:

* Near latitude 25.4 N, longitude 88.7 W, about 445 miles SE of Port Arthur, Texas.

* She was moving toward the WNW at 9 mph. A gradual turn to the NW should occur within 24 to 36 hours.

* Sustained winds have decreased to 165 mph with higher gusts. She is still a strong Category 5. She may weaken some more before landfall, but she will still be extremely dangerous.

* Hurricane force winds go out 85 miles from the center.

* Central pressure 907 milibars, 26.78 inches.

* Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with large and dangerous battering waves will occur near and to the right of landfall.

* Huge amounts of rain. Could be 8 to 12 inches and possibly some 15-inch amounts along the path of Rita, especially over SE Texas and West Louisiana. Amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over SE Louisiana, including New Orleans.

* And this is very bad news: After moving inland, rainfall totals may exceed 25 inches because of her slowing down. This could be over parts of East Texas and West Louisiana.

* A Hurricane Warning has been posted from Port Oconnor, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana. Port Oconnor is about halfway down the Texas coast. That means that hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is up for areas south of Port Oconnor to Port Mansfield, Texas and also for the SE coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

* A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for north of the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the Pearl River, including metro New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Here is a look at how Rita will affect other parts of the Gulf Coast:

GULF SHORES: A Coastal Flood Warning and a High Surf Advisory was in effect. Scattered showers and thunderstorms today becoming more numerous Friday and Saturday. During this time frame, prevailing winds should be east 15-25 mph, gusts may be a bit higher.

GULFPORT-BILOXI: A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect tonight through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms tonight becoming numerous Friday and Saturday with rainfall locally heavy. A good chance of showers on Sunday. All through this time, prevailing winds should be east 10-20 mph, maybe some higher gusts.

NEW ORLEANS: Posted earlier. Scan down to get that informtation.

SPOT REPORTS
New Orleans International Airport...partly sunny, wind NE 13
Belle Chase...wind NE, gusts to 17
Houston Hobby Airport....wind NNW 7
Galveston...sunny, wind N 15
Corpus Christi...sunny, wind N 6
Buoy #42001 (210 miles S of Southwest Pass, Louisiana)...wind NNE 54, gusts to 69 mph, 34-foot waves

We included those reports from coastal Louisiana and SE Texas to show that nothing is going on yet. The projected landfall further east along the Upper Texas coast should take a bit of pressure off Galveston and Houston, but that is certainly not sealed in stone yet. As we always say, you can look for some last minute surprises in landfalling hurricanes. They are like Bill Gates...they love to throw monkey wrenches at us.