From the ABC 33/40 Pinpoint Neighborhood Weathernet: Hamilton is down to 35 degrees at 8:59 p.m.

I will be posting the Thursday morning forecast package over on the seven day discussion and forecast page shortly...

No change in our thinking at all. Maybe a little spotty ice on bridges late tonight from Vernon up to Muscle Shoals, but travel issues should not be major at all. No problems for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden.

The big story is the BIG CHILL tomorrow!

Just checked out Hamilton weathernet site... down to 39 degrees at 7:30, so the cold air has indeed crossed the state line.

Other random notes:

*Memphis reports sleet and 23 degrees; Tupelo has rain and 36.

*A snow emergency has been declared in Cincinnati; the city could see over one foot of snow by tomorrow morning.

*The I-35 bridge across the Trinity River in Dallas has been closed due to ice. Dallas/Fort Worth pretty much got away with light amounts of snow and ice, however.

*A steady rain continues to fall at the GMAC Bowl down in Mobile.

*A tornado watch is up for parts of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle until late tonight.

*We still believe the greatest chance of some bridge icing will be in the area from near Vernon to Hamilton to Muscle Shoals. Few if any problems for Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston/Gadsden.

*A few snow flurries are still possible early tomorrow as the cold air arrives.

Thanks to J.B. Elliott for posting here on his day off! His stuff is the best.

Our ABC 33/40 weathernet site in Hamilton is still showing 55 degrees as of 4:34 p.m. Cold air has stopped along the Alabama/Mississippi state line... don't expect much movement until the surface low is northeast of us later tonight.

We have a vast array of great weather brains in conference now, and we still expect the greatest threat of any icy bridges from Vernon to Muscle Shoals, in the far northwest part of Alabama.

For Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, we do not expect any real issues with wintry precipitation, based on what we see now. The problem here is the COLD air tomorrow, with single digit wind chill values at times.

The National Weather Service is preparing its afternoon forecast package and new warnings and advisories will be issued shortly.

The NWS Birmingham will extend the Winter Weather Advisory as far east as Jefferson, Shelby and Blount Counties. It will extend from Pickens and Tuscaloosa County on the west to Lamar, Fayette, Walker and Blount Counties down through Jefferson and Shelby Counties. It will be in effect through at least early Thursday morning. Across this area, rain will change to freezing rain briefly late tonight as cold air moves in before the precipitation ends. Because the ground will still be warm, icing should be limited to bridges and overpasses and exposed objects. Be careful driving and if you will be walking. It only takes a tiny amount of freezing rain to make getting around nearly impossible.

A Winter Storm Warning will be issued for Marion and Winston Counties, as well as for the Northwest Corner of Alabama, including Franklin, Lawrence, Limestone, Colbert and Lauderdale Countiesfor for tonight and Thursday morning. Over these counties, rain will change to freezing rain later this evening. Here, up to 1/4 of an inch of glaze is possible. Again, most of the problems will be on elevated objects, such as bridges and overpasses, and travel will likely be difficult.

The rest of the Tennessee Valley is also under a Winter Weather Advisory for rain changing to freeazing rain late tonight. Some areas included are: Huntsville, Decatur, Guntersville, Arab, Albertville, Cullman and Fort Payne.

There is no need to panic....but residents across North Alabama should check the latest weather conditions before traveling later tonight and early Thursday morning. When the sun comes out tomorrow, it will quickly out an end to any ice on any highways or bridges.

See James' excellent post below for additional information.

The afternoon video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

There are about a gazillion winter weather messages for parts of the mid-south, including "winter storm watch", "winter storm warning", "winter weather advisory", "winter weather warning", and who knows what else. Here is the bottom line:

At 3:00 p.m. Tupelo was down to 42 with light rain. Heavy rain was falling over at Greenwood, MS with 39 degrees.

Up in Memphis, sleet was reported at 3:00 with 30 degrees.

Just checked (4:00 p.m.) our Hamilton weathernet site: 54 degrees, so the cold air seems hung up near the Alabama/Mississippi state line right now.

On the maps, a surface low should move from near Jackson to Scottsboro, and then on into eastern Tennessee tonight. Until the surface low gets northeast of us, the cold air will only seep slowly into northwest Alabama.

We think the best chance icy travel in Alabama tonight and early tomorrow will be in an area from roughly Vernon in Lamar county to the Muscle Shoals area in the northwest corner of the state. And, in most of these places, icy spots will be pretty sparse.


BUFKIT data shows we should see a period of sleet or freezing rain late tonight over the northwest part of Alabama, but precipitation will be very light as the big storm pulls away from Alabama. Sleet rarely causes travel problems, but freezing rain can mean some icy spots. Road surfaces will have no problems at all due to the warm-up over the past two days, but some bridges in northwest Alabama could be a little icy in spots.

SO... not really a major event, but if you are driving late tonight in that part of Alabama from Sulligent to Muscle Shoals, just be careful.

The big snow is in an area from north Texas and south Oklahoma up through parts of Arkansas, Kentucky, far northwest Tennessee, and into southern parts of Illinois, Indiana, and western Ohio.

We should also mention a tornado watch is up for parts of south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana... severe storms are very possible down in south Alabama tonight. Not a good night for a college bowl game in Mobile.

More later...

Very, very interesting weather for the next 24 hours.

The new 12Z model suite is in the house, and we are all together on an online conference now discussing the situation. Here are the main issues:

*Severe weather today? Instability is simply not there, but you have to be impressed with the dynamics. I will be surprised if there are no tornado warnings for counties in south Alabama and south Mississippi. We will be on our toes for convection around here; they will be elevated, not surface based, which usually doesn't mean a big threat.

*Wind! Winds have gusted to over 30 mph at many places already this morning, and I expect gusts to 40 in spots this afternoon, especially on the ridges. This gradient wind might be enough to knock down some trees and power lines.

*Wintry mix? We still have that window late tonight and early tomorrow for a brief, light wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, or snow over northwest Alabama as Arctic air returns in a hurry. I do not see any evidence that we will have any major problems with this "backwash" type precipitation, but some brief icy spots are possible after midnight in places like Hamilton, Winfield, Haleyville, and Vernon. Quite frankly the best chance of any real issues will be up in the Muscle Shoals area of extreme northwest Alabama. We will hang on to the chance of a few flurries tomorrow morning, but they won't amount to anything.

*Cold! ETA suggests we stay below freezing all day tomorrow with single digit wind chill values. GFS not as cold. One way or the other, it will be a very cold, frigid day.

*Gulf coast snow for Christmas? Once again the GFS bends the moisture far enough inland for some snow at Mobile, Gulf Shores, and Pensacola late Friday night into early Christmas morning. Pretty amazing stuff.

Bill Murray is writing the afternoon forecast package and we will have it posted by 2:30... and the afternoon video update will be ready by 3:30.

Wow... just saw the NWS Huntsville went with a "winter storm watch" for the northwest corner of the state, and the NWS Birmingham went with a "winter weather advisory" for west Alabama in the general area from Hamilton down to Jasper and Tuscaloosa.

In the winter weather advisory, the text says

"NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR ICE PELLETS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SURFACES THAT WILL COOL QUICKLY IN THE COLDER AIR...SUCH AS BRIDGES...ELEVATED ROADWAYS...POWER LINES...TREES...AND CARS...COULD BE AFFECTED. PATCHY ICE COULD FORM...OR ICE PELLETS COULD COLLECT IN LOW SPOTS ON THESE SURFACES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WARMTH IN MOST GROUND SURFACES TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS. ANY TRAVEL PROBLEMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AS BREEZY...DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL."

I agree totally with this text... but I wonder why a "winter weather advisory" is needed? This has whipped some people into a frenzy in west Alabama... I am not sure everyone will hear the part about no widespread problems. I have e-mail messages coming in from the public, who don't read this site, wanting to know if they need close businesses tomorrow, activate emergency plans at hospitals, etc. It simply isn't a big deal!

And, in the winter storm watch, it says

"AT THIS TIME...TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN INCH...WITH ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW."

Again, I have to wonder is that really a winter storm? This is out of our market, but I would imagine people up in Muscle Shoals are hitting the bread and milk lines when they hear they are under a "winter storm watch".

I probably need to get some NWS manual and study the criteria for these watches and advisories... I am sure the local guys are just following the guidelines, this is not knocking their work. Again, I agree totally with what they are saying; I just don't understand the need for these messages that tend to make people a little jittery.

Morning video update is online and ready to go:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The wind is howling this morning, and looking at the projected surface patterns today I would imagine we might see gusts to 40 mph later today even with no thunderstorms involved.

No real big changes in the forecast package. We will highlight rain and storms today and early tonight; no unstable air here, so any severe storms should be near the coast. I would not be surprised to see a few tornado warnings out of Mobile today. But, we might have enough pressure gradient wind to knock down some trees and power lines around here. Very, very windy.

The NWS office in Huntsville has issued a flood watch for today for their counties up in the Tennessee Valley. I don't think flooding will be a big issue here since the ground has gotten a great chance to dry out over the past couple of weeks. Rainfall amounts to 2 inches are possible near the Mississippi border, with totals closer to 1/2 inch over far east Alabama.

The surface low will basically move up I-59 tonight, from Meridian to Chattanooga, which will bring a brief window for some wintry precipitation late tonight and early tomorrow. BUFKIT analysis here shows the potential for a little freezing rain or sleet after midnight over northwest Alabama, and then a shot of light snow, before it all ends. The ground has warmed up with 60s yesterday and 60s today, so I don't think we will have any major issues. These backwash type things rarely cause big problems, but they can be a nuisance.

The real big time snow from today's storm will come in the corridor from northeast of Little Rock to Cincinnati. Somebody around the Ohio River will probably have 10 inches of snow before it is all over.

We continue to mention flurries around here tomorrow morning as Arctic air returns, coming from a whopper 1050 high over Montana. Wind chill values will be below freezing all day tomorrow with temperatures in the 30s.

CHRISTMAS: COLD. Moisture in the Gulf could creep far enough inland for some snow at Mobile, Gulf Shores, Pensacola, and Destin. Pretty amazing; I don't know if anyone down there will actually get snow on the ground, but that will be a great treat for coastal kids Saturday morning if a few flakes are flying.

NEXT WEEK: Cold air is gone, and the GFS is suggesting it might stay gone for two weeks. No real confidence in the long term with the pattern change.