On the road…

Yesterday I boarded Storm Chaser 33/40 for a ride up into far Northeast Alabama for a visit with the kids at Sand Rock School in Cherokee County. For me it was east on Alabama 119 from U.S. 280 to Grants Mill Road. You cross the eastern tip of Lake Purdy on Grants Mill, which is a steep, winding road that ultimately runs into I-459. I understand there is some consideration of making Grants Mill Road a four lane thoroughfare in the years to come to get some congestion off U.S. 280. That would really be nice.

I ran up I-459/I-59 to Trussville to pick up J.B. Elliott, who went along for the ride, and then it was right up I-59 to Collinsville, which is about 12 miles northeast of Gadsden in DeKalb County. This is a lovely community at the foot of Lookout Mountain; you expect to see Sherriff Andy and Deputy Barney at any time driving through. And I really mean that in a positive way; there is something very peaceful about the smaller communities along U.S. 11 in the valley between Lookout and Sand Mountains. This includes places like Fort Payne and Valley Head.

From downtown Collinsville, it was up on top of Lookout Mountain on Alabama 68, and into the community of Sand Rock. We actually did the weather program in the Sand Rock Town Hall, just across the street from the school. We saw all of the second graders, and they were great listeners. I think one of the highlights was seeing second grade teacher Keith Bates, who happens to have the “shaved head” look, who had the ABC 33/40 logo painted on the back of his head. If he ever gives up teaching, we can always come to work for our marketing department! We came back through Leesburg, and down U.S. 411 to Gadsden where a quick trip on I-759 got us to I-59 for the trip home.

It was a cloudy, wet day, but one of the elements of my job that I enjoy the most!

The Monday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Wow... a ton of people got the morning music trivia correct... the lyrics ""February made me shiver, with every newspaper I'd deliver..." were from the song American Pie from Don McClean. Thanks for all the e-mails. Funny how a song from 1972 would be remembered so clearly in 2006.

BIG TIME RAIN: A quick peek at the instrument panel here at ABC 33/40 shows 1.63" since midnight. J.B. will have more rain totals later... but sure seems like most folks got quite a soaking during the last 24 hours.

Quite a thermal contrast on either side of the front; at this moment Evergreen, down in South Alabama, is reporting 77, while Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, and Decatur are at 50 degrees. We have 61 here in Riverchase.

Expect a good dose of daily sunshine through mid-week. A clipper system will carve out a cold trough over the northeast U.S., which should mean cooler temperatures down this way. Highs will drop into the 50s on Wednesday and Thursday, and the new guidance is much colder for early Wednesday morning, with the NAM showing 28 and the GFS 30 for Birmingham.

NEXT RAIN: The 12Z run of the GFS is a little faster with the rain over the weekend, basically suggesting rain is most likely from about 6:00 p.m. Saturday through 9:00 a.m. Sunday. For the moment we will continue to highlight rain and poissibly a thunderstorm Saturday night and Sunday, and we can make adjustments as needed in coming days.

LONG RANGE: The 12z run at 384 hours is an example of what CAN happen in a pattern with a negative AO and NAO this time of the year. The model floods much of the nation with very cold air, and an active southern stream will bring rumors of snow storms to parts of the southern U.S. Of course, model output at 384 hours is all voo-doo, but I think the trend is clear. February should be much colder for much of the nation with more frequent and interesting winter storms. Hang on for the ride.

TODAY: Had a great time up on Lookout Mountain seeing the 2nd graders at Sand Rock School in Cherokee County. Thanks to Vic Bell, our weather watcher from Black Creek, for stopping by to see us during the program. Be sure and look for the kids on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40. You will really get a kick out of what one of the second grade teachers did for us...

I will have the next map discussion video ready by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

Rain has already diminished this afternoon over a large part of North and West Alabama.

At 1:50 pm, some the heaviest remaining rain was over East Alabama from Gadsden and Anniston eastward and down into Randolph County. A line of showers extended southward to near the Montgomery and Mobile areas.

As of early this afternoon, 1.60 inches of rain had fallen in Riverchase at the ABC 33/40 Weather Office. Based on radar estimates, as much as three inches has fallen from this storm system over several Northwest Alabama counties.

Still quite a contrast in temperature. At 1 pm, it was a springlike 77 in Evergreen and 72 in Montgomery. It was only 49 at the same time in Huntsville.

Still a lot of showers over much of Alabama.

In fact, some have spread back northward approaching the Tennessee Valley.

Heaviest showers at 9:30 were over the NE counties.

At 3340 in Riverchase, 1.08 inches of rain so far.

Showers and thunderstorms have greatly diminished or ended over Extreme North Alabama. Especially across the Tennessee Valley.

However, at 7:15 am, numerous showers, some heavy, continued over a large part of Central Alabama. They were moving toward the ENE. There was also some lightning near the Alabama-Mississippi border.

The heaviest rain overnight was up over the NW counties where as much as two to three inches fell. There was some flash-flooding over several NW counties and, at one point, numerous roads flooded or even closed.

Examples of rainfall so far:

2.87 inches at Muscle Shoals Airport
1.50 at Decatur
1.36 at Huntsville
0.69 at Birmingham Airport
0.71 at Anniston
0.74 at Tuscaloosa
0.70 at Pinson
0.70 at Selma
0.85 at Ashland
0.66 at Alexander City
0.73 at Smith Dam
0.66 at Pell City
0.78 at Steele
1.01 at Mitchell Dam

The Greater Birmingham area will be subject to several more hours of off-and-on showers.

The 0.69 at Birmingham Airport brought the January total tp 4.93 inches, an excess of 1.03. We have not talked about rainfall excesses much in the last several months.

The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Anyone recall the song from which this line comes?

"February made me shiver, with every newspaper I'd deliver..."

First off, lets discuss the short term:

Rain should taper off by midday today. My rain bucket shows 0.63" as I write this at 5:45 a.m. Up in the Shoals, amounts to 3 inches produced flash flooding late last night with some roads closed.

Temperatures will be a little challenging today; looks like we might hold steady this morning in the upper 50s, then falling into the low 50s this afternoon. By daybreak tomorrow we should be in the 35 to 40 degree range as the sky finally clears.

The middle of the week will be fairly quite here, a strong clipper will bring very cold air to the northeast U.S., and we will catch just the far southern edge of that airmass. Looks like we will mostly have highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s for midweek, about normal for late January in Alabama. Morning temperatures will be nearing the freezing mark for the colder valleys Wednesday and Thursday.

NEXT RAIN: It is begnining to look like our next rain will come late in the weekend. The initial ULL (upper level low) now south of San Diego, will weaken greatly and lift toward the Great Lakes late in the week. It now looks like this feature will be weak enough and far enough to the north not to bring rain to Alabama on Friday. A stronger system will come out of the southwest U.S. late in the week, and will bring rain and storms to the state by Saturday night and Sunday. For the moment it looks like we can escape with no rain during the day Saturday.

FEBRUARY: Watch the video for details on teleconnections. No doubt the AO and the NAO will be negative as we get into the new month. With the vast amount of cold air around the pole, you have to figure much of the nation will be considerably colder in February. I am not sure why so many people celebrate this... the gas bill that comes in your mailbox in March might make you pass out.

The GFS/ECMWF will be all over the road in trying to deal with this; we won't even try to get into specifics right now. The 06Z GFS does bring a cold 1045 high down into the U.S. in the Feb 3-6 time frame, while a southwest flow aloft continues across the deep south. I have seen output that dumps really cold air down in here with a long wave trough over the eastern U.S. The model will struggle with the pattern change, like us forecasters. The message is simply for now it should be colder next month. We can tell you how cold a little later...

ON THE ROAD: I have a fun road trip today... J.B. Elliott and I are headed up to Cherokee County in Northeast Alabama to see the kids at Sand Rock School, up on Lookout Mountain. We will be back in time to get the afternoon video posted by 3:30 this afternoon...

STORM ALERT 2006: Don't forget our annual severe weather tour across the state begins next week:

http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=stormalert&w=1

We hope to see you along the way!

At 3 am, the leading edge of a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms extended from Cherokee County, in Northeast Alabama southwestward to along the St. Clair/Calhoun County line, along the St. Clair/Talladega County line and then through Shelby, Eastern Bibb, Perry and Eastern Marengo County.

Moving steadily eastward.

Storms in the Greater Birmingham area are diminishing somewhat.

But behind the leading line, rain continues over a wide area of North and West Alabama.

(Be sure to scan down to our earlier post about this event, which tells of some flash flooding and rainfall amounts)

Early on this Monday morning, a line of showers and thunderstorms was moving steadily eastward across Nort and West Alabama.

At 2:25 am, the leading edge of the line was from Dekalb County in Northeast Alabama down to near Gadsden, Birmingham and down into Southeast Alabama. Some of the heavier rain was falling over:

Western St. Clair County
Eastern and Southern Jefferson County
Marengo County, including the Demopolis area.

Behind the leading line of storms, rain is widespread over most of North and West Alabama. Back in those areas the rain is also moderate to occasionally heavy.

It is estimated (from radar) that as much as 2.50 inches of rain has fallen over parts of Marion, Franklin and Colbert County. The NWS in Huntsville reports that significant flash flooding has occurred in Colbert, Franklin and Lauderdale County. There were widespread road closures last evening in those counties.

In the city of Florence, many roads and streets were barricaded.

As of 2 am, Muscle Shoals Airport had received 2.44 inches of rain.

A complicated stalled front was across Central Alabama this morning. At 2 am, it was a very mild 68 degrees in Alexander City and 66 in Montgomery as compared to a cooler 51 in Muscle Shoals.

Sunday afternoon, the temperature soared to 71 at Pinson, in Northeast Jefferson County, a record for January 22.

This is mostly a big rain event. So far, North and Central Alabama has not been ouitlooked for severe weather.