I enjoyed hearing Brian Peters of our staff speak about his experience with Hurricane Ivan at the Central Alabama National Weather Association local chapter meeting on Tuesday night. He shared many pictures and stories of flying through the storm with the hurricane hunters, and covering the storm at the point of landfall in Gulf Shores with the rest of the crew from ABC 33/40.

I will never forget that Friday afternoon (September 10) when our assistant news director came into the weather office and said we have a seat on a morning flight out of Keesler AFB in Biloxi, MS, and wanted a meteorologist to go. I have always wanted to go on a hurricane hunter flight, but with the big storm approaching the central Gulf coast it is my responsibility to hold down the fort here, and Brian got the assignment. With only a few hours sleep, Brian and Kim Harden of our staff drove all the way down to the Mississippi coast early the next Saturday morning and hopped on board the big C-130 aircraft for the ride of their life. They were in the air for over 12 hours, and flew through the eye of Ivan multiple times when it was at category five status.

You can see Brian’s story tonight as part of our Storm Alert 2005 show, which comes to the Oxford Civic Center in Calhoun county at 7:00. This is our annual severe weather awareness tour across the state as we make an effort to get Alabamians ready for the spring tornado season. Everyone who comes gets a free Storm Alert 2005 t-shirt, and we have a great giveaway at the end of the show to test your weather knowledge. You can meet the entire ABC 33/40 weather team, and we have a great story on our new guy, Jason Simpson. While we do begin at 7:00, we recommend you get there at least 30 minutes early to get a seat. Our last stop this year will come next Wednesday night, March 2, at Mountaintop Community Church in Vestavia.

The Wednesday afternoon web video is online and ready for viewing:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Everyone wants to talk about the March cold pattern and winter storm threats, but first... lets talk short term weather:

*Looks like a good soaking tonight. A large mass of rain and storms is moving into west Alabama, and rainfall amounts of around one inch look likely tonight along the I-20 corridor. Some stronger storms are possible south of I-20 tonight, but I don't expect any serious problems with severe storms despite that severe thunderstorm watch over south Mississippi. The rain should pretty much be over by midday tomorrow.

*The weather should be dry on Friday and Saturday, with some light rain possible by Sunday as overrunning develops. We will also watch for signs of a wedge pattern with cooler air slipping in here from the east.

LONG TERM

A cold and deep upper low is forecast to form over the Great Lakes early next week, and the first blast of cold air should roll in here by Tuesday and Wednesday. Will this cold air be deep enough for a winter storm threat at the end of next week? Too early to tell.

A storm system should pass through the deep south at the end of next week, in the March 3-5 time frame. I fully expect a significant winter weather threat for parts of the southern states; maybe Tennessee, maybe north Alabama. We will just have to wait on this one. If we do not get any snow or ice it should be a good soaking, with a likely change to rain on the back of the storm as it moves northeast.

The next shot of cold air moves in following the departing storm, in the March 5-7 time frame. Then, the GFS shows an array of waves and storms beyond that, but there is no skill in trying to resolve details so far in advance.

The screaming message is that the first half of March looks very cold, and I fully expect one, maybe two winter storm THREATS in the March 3-15 time frame.

Time to get back to the radar... we will be watching for signs of strong storms down across the southern part of our viewing area, from about Livingston to Demopolis to Marion to Clanton to Roanoke. NWS Birmingham just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Macon county...

Thirty years ago today, on February 23, 1975, I was on duty that Sunday afternoon working the noon to 6:00 shift at WTBC radio, the BIG 1230, in Tuscaloosa. Being a rock and roll disc jockey was a cool job for an 18 year old college student. And, I was absolutely fascinated by weather and was aware that big storms were expected that day.

Shortly after 1:00, we received a tornado warning on our Civil Defense radio system in the studio. The warning was for Tuscaloosa county for a thunderstorm that was southwest of town, down Alabama Highway 69 near Taylorville. I immediately cut into the song I was playing at the time (I can’t remember which one), and put the tornado warning on the air with as much information as I could gather from the CD radio message. I do recall the next song I played after putting the tornado warning on the air: “Lightning Strikes” by Lou Christie. About halfway through the song, the power went out at our 15th Street studio, and with no generator we had no way of getting back on the air. I walked outside and saw a black, churning cloud to the east with a classic roaring sound, and I knew Tuscaloosa was indeed having a real tornado emergency.

The tornado would be rated an F4; the path from Taylorville into the southern part of the city, crossing Skyland Blvd, I-59/20, and McFarland Blvd, and then moving into the eastern part of town around Alberta City, and finally lifting just northeast of Holt. One employee of the old Scottish Inn, Thelma Hill, was killed as she worked on the second level of the complex at I-20/29 and McFarland. A total of 289 homes and 20 businesses were heavily damaged or destroyed. The twister missed WTBC by only about one mile, and it was the closest brush with a strong/violent tornado I have ever experienced.


**Here is an interesting sidebar to this story from Don Hartley with the Tuscaloosa EMA office:


I just did some research on the correct tornado and discovered an interesting sidebar about the 1975 twister. It was that tornado that prompted the City of Tuscaloosa to embark on an extensive Outdoor Warning Siren System. Civil Defense began applying for grant money to enlarge the system which now in the near future will consist of 50 sirens. According to records, there were only 3 Cold War era sirens in all of Tuscaloosa County in 1975.

I was driving eastbound on University Blvd. and saw the tornado as it moved across the area. By the way, I did have the car radio on WTBC at the time.

The Wednesday morning video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I encourage everyone to really watch the video today since it explains our thinking much better, but I think we need to begin raising some flags for the first half of March concerning the possibility of very cold weather and one or two winter storm threats. We have thousands of readers here who are business planners, work for major utilities, and are involved in emergency management. They understand the pitfalls in long range outlooks and how to use them, and this is especially for them.

FIRST OFF... the short term stuff...

*Rain should become widespread tonight and tomorrow morning as a wave moves along the stalled front just south of here. Rainfall amounts of one-half to one inch are likely tonight and tomorrow. Maybe some thunder, but no severe weather for us.

*Friday and Saturday still look cool and dry, and we will continue to mention the risk of some light rain on Sunday as an overrunning pattern begins.

MARCH ARRIVES WITH A WINTER BLAST

The GFS is now in agreement with the ECMWF. A major long wave trough sets up over the east early next week, with the first phase of cold air arriving Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The GFS output statistics is advertising 50s and 30s for those days, and it is out to lunch (it tends to skew toward climatology in the late periods). It should be much colder. How cold? Just too early to say. Long time readers here know I don't like to get into details beyond seven days... just not enough skill. But you can sure get an idea of patterns and trends, and the trend for the first half of March is COLD.

With cold air in place, the first potential threat for a winter storm will come at the end of next week with a nice low forming in the Gulf. It is simply too early to be specific, but the pattern would suggest parts of the deep south with some snow or ice potential in the March 4-6 time frame. We might see just a simple cold rain here, however, with critical thickness values right on the borderline. The Gulf coast should get a good soaking.

Once that system passes, the cold air is reinforced. We are talking a cross polar flow if the GFS is correct, and we might be headed for some record lows in the March 8-12 time frame. And, just maybe another winter storm threat in there somewhere.

The North Atlantic Oscillation forecast supports all of this with a strongly negative look during the first half of March, which favors a deep eastern U.S. trough.

Don't let the warm weather of recent days fool you, winter is far from over. And for the snow fans, you day could very well be coming....

Can this outlook be wrong? Sure. Only a fool would answer no to that question. But there is enough evidence this morning in this office to begin the process of preparing for a period of cold, maybe very cold, weather during the first 15 days of March. Stay tuned!