We are approaching our prime time severe weather season. Yes, I know that for the last several years our secondary season in November and early December has been more active than the spring. I, for one, certainly do not believe that it indicates a switch in climatology. Instead, I think it is a coincidence. Over the long haul, I believe that Spring will always be the worst severe weather season that we have—just not every year.

It has been about 8 years since we have had a really major tornado outbreak in spring. That happened on April 8, 1998 when West Jefferson County was hard hit.

I can never forget the super outbreak of tornadoes back on April 3 and 4, 1974. That still stands as the most outstanding severe episode of record in the USA. During that fateful 36 hours, there were 148 tornadoes, including 95 that were F2 or stronger and 30 that were F4 or F5. 48 of the tornadoes were killers leaving 335 people dead and more than 6,000 injured. One of the tornadoes was on the ground for up to 90 miles. Those tornadoes combined cut a total path length of 2,500 miles. At one point, 15 tornadoes were on the ground at the same time and 10 states were declared federal disaster areas.

At the Birmingham NWS office, I worked 17 straight hours during that tragic event as part of a team. I was responsible in those days for doing storm surveys and preparing the official publication called Storm Data. This is just a small part of that April 1974 edition. “There were 10 confirmed tornadoes in Alabama including 5 powerful ones with long paths. All of the major tornadoes and most of the damage was over the north part of the state. The tornado paths, added together, amounted to 375 miles on the ground. The result was 1,075 dwellings destroyed, 776 with major damage, 1,072 with minor damage, 408 mobile homes destroyed, 135 with major damage, 723 farm buildings destroyed, 299 with major damage, 205 small businesses destroyed or heavily damaged.”

Alabama had more fatalities during that tragic event than any other state. More than 75 persons were killed and 938 injured. We may or may not ever see another outbreak that severe, but we must be ready.

-J.B. Elliott

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The sub tropical jet will bring some high clouds to the state tonight and tomorrow, but the next 24 hours should be dry. We go down in the 30s tonight, but into the 60s tomorrow afternoon.

WET SATURDAY: The latest 12Z model runs confirm the development of a nice wave along the Gulf coast, which should spread rain into all of Alabama Saturday. The heaviest rain should be over the southern half of the state, but some places up this way could see over one inch. Any severe storms should be confined to the far southern tier of Alabama counties and the Florida panhandle.

DRY SUNDAY: Cooler and drier air rolls in here Sunday. Thank goodness the core of this cold airmass is headed for New England, but we should be well below freezing around here by early Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to hint at a weak system coming down in the northwest flow aloft which might bring some light rain on Tuesday.

INTO MARCH WE GO: The month sure looks active. The GFS has lost the severe weather look now for March 4-7; it now shows a fast zonal flow which should bring frequent wet weather systems into the state. The month looks pretty wet and unsettled, which is what you expect in March in Alabama. Details are impossible to resolve this far out.

OFF TO GADSDEN: Headed out for the Storm Alert 2006 show tonight at the Gadsden Convention Hall. We begin at 7:00, get down there early for a good seat!

Sure enjoyed seeing the 2nd graders at Shades Mountain Elementary today in Hoover... they will be on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 today!

The next video will be posted bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.!

A general soaking in the last 24-36 hours for a big chunk of North and Central Alabama.

Just before mid-day, only scattered light rain remained over parts of East Central and Southeast Alabama.

These amounts cover at least the last 24 to 36 hours. Birmingham surplus for 2006 now over 4.50 inches.

0.95 at Desoto State park
1.61 at Ashland
1.88 at Anniston (Alabama Power)
2.20 at Anniston Airport
0.47 in Huntsville
2.05 at Smith Dam
1.03 at Ashville
1.62 at Logan Martin Dam
2.05 at Blountsville
2.15 at Bankhead Lock and Dam
1.94 at Blount Springs
1.24 at Childersburg
1.53 at Cordova
1.77 at Childersburg
2.67 at Dearmanville (east of Anniston)
1.44 at Fort Payne (Alabama Power)
1.48 at Gadsden Steam Plant
2.15 at Gaylesville
2.20 at Gorgas
2.46 at Hollins (Clay County)
1.53 at Jasper
2.03 on Mt. Cheaha
2.09 at Pell City
1.63 at Oneonta
1.70 at Steele (North St. Clair County)
2.21 at Starkville (Mississippi State University Climate Lab)
2.15 at Birmingham Airport
1.47 at Tuscaloosa Airport
0.96 at Shelby County Airport (NWS Office)
0.71 in Cullman (Airport at Vinemont)
0.08 at Montgomery
0.01 at Mobile (hardly enough to wet the pavement)
1.89 in Pinson (24 hour total)
1.94 at Greystone Cove (James Spann)
2.46 in Hueytown (along the edge of Concord)
1.15 in Alabaster
1.76 at Talladega
1.32 at Wedowee
2.02 at Palmerdale (NE edge of Jefferson County)

If you like reading this blog and enjoy the weather, you will really enjoy the annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State University March 3-4.

J.B. Elliott and I will be speaking at the symposium on Friday; there are many other speakers that will be bringing some excellent information and research. This event has become one of my favorites over the years.

Starkville is only one hour west of Tuscaloosa, and two hours west of Birmingham. Not a bad drive at all, and I hope many of you can join us!

Learn more here:

http://www.msstate.edu/org/nwa/symposium.shtml

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

"Little darlin' it's been a long cold lonely winter
Little darlin' it feels like years since it's been here
Here comes the sun, here comes the sun"

We might be a little optimistic forecasting breaks in the overcast this afternoon, but we will keep it in the forecast for now. Rain is still falling at my place as I write this at 5:30 a.m. My total here in Shelby County yesterday was 1.31", and since midnight I have measured an additional 0.63" for a storm total of 1.94".

I sure didn't expect that much rain; the models didn't have a clue either. Just a reminder of this difficult pattern with the STJ overhead. Talk about surprises, how about those tornado warnings late yesterday. That was quite logistic problem for us; I was at McFarland Mall in Tuscaloosa with Brian Peters for the Tuscaloosa County EMA severe weather awareness event, and John Oldshue was in the studio. We had to go "wall to wall" when Chilton County was placed under a warning around 5:45. We were sure thankful for our pals from Comcast down in Tuscaloosa for setting up an open wi-fi hot spot in the mall; that sure came in handy for us. The radar signatures were pretty impressive, and funnel clouds were spotted southwest of Maplesville. But, to our knowledge they did not touch down and no damage was reported.

That rotation crossed U.S. 82 between Mulberry Creek and Jim's Pit BBQ... pretty much in open country.

TODAY: We think the rain will be ending from north to south this morning, and yes, we might see some sun breaking through the clouds this afternoon. Temperatures should hold in the 50s pretty much all day.

TOMORROW: A much brigher day. Ample sunshine with the mercury reaching the 60s. Not bad at all.

SATURDAY: Here comes the rain again. A wave forms on the Gulf coast, which should spread rain into almost all of Alabama. The heaviest rain should fall over South Alabama, but we will be wet at times up this way.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Drier and colder air rolls in. This time the bulk of the really cold air is headed for New England. Still, we should be well below freezing Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: Some hint of rain returning on Tuesday. The pattern remains active and difficult, expect changeable weather much of next week.

LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to back off on a severe weather threat here in the March 4-7 time frame, it is now running the storm from the west coast to the high plains, keeping a ridge in place here. However, the month generally looks active as the spring tornado season begins here across the Deep South.

STORM ALERT 2006: We will be in Gadsdsen tonight for the show at the Convention Hall; come down early to get a good seat and a free t-shirt. You will see some great Alabama weather stories and you have a chance to meet our weather team. And, don't forget the final show is next TUESDAY (not Thursday) at the Northport Civic Center.

TODAY: I will be speaking to the kids today at Shades Mountain Elementary School in Hoover... I hope to have time to crank out a video update this afternoon before we leave for Gadsden. I will have a blog discussion one way or another!

Rain not quite as extensive as it was late last night and the main band of rain has shifted slightly southward overnight.

Most of the rain is along the Livingston-Demopolis-Greensburo-Anniston line. Tuscaloosa and Birmingham near the north edge. The rain is light to moderate.

However, some scattered light rain further north also.

Stalled front seems to have shifted a bit south during the night.

James Spann will have a complte discussion + video update around 6 am. Watch for that.

Rain persists late tonight over a large part of North Alabama. It has been raining all day and will probably rain the rest of the night.

The rain was especially persistent in a zone from Lamar and Pickens County eastward across the Jasper-Birmingham-Gadsden-Anniston regions. The rain has been training across those general areas time and time again today.

Many areas surely approaching two inches of rain by now from this persistent system.

Due to a stalled front across North Central Alabama.

At 11:30 pm, rain was getting heavier again over West Alabama and across Central Mississippi. It is all coming up the track directly toward us.

There was almost no rain over the south half of the state late tonight.

...life goes on, wet or dry. For us it has been wet, wet, wet today and tonight.