Residents along the North Coast of Australia are feeling the wrath of Severe Cyclone Monica this morning. The cyclone, which is what Australians call their tropical cyclones, is moving along the North Coast. Packing sustained winds of 170 mph, the category five cyclone is making landfall this morning (evening in Australia) near Goulbum Island at the base of the Cobourg Peninsula.

So far, Monica has stayed far enough offshore to prevent significant damage. Officials are hoping that trend continues, but it does not look likely. Evacuations have been ordered in the expected landfall area. Designated cyclone shelters have been prepared and residents have been told to determine where they will ride out the storm. There are large lines (queues) at supermarkets and gas (petrol) stations.

After making landfall, Monica will skim just inland, curving to a point about 40 miles south of Darwin Tuesday morning (afternoon Australian time.) By then, it should still have top winds of 150 mph. This could be very devastating to the territorial capital city. They remember all too well the devastation caused by Cyclone Tracy early on Christmas morning 1974, when much of the city was destroyed.

Officially rated as a Category Four cyclone at landfall, Tracy was likely actually a Category Five storm. Over seventy percent of the buildings in the city were destroyed. A total of seventy one died in the disaster. Twenty thousand people were left homeless.

Here is a satellite image of Severe Cyclone Monica...moving along the North Coast of Australia with top sustained winds of 160 and gusts over 200 mph...

Scroll down for more information...including Brian's morning discussion...

Severe Cyclone Monica poses a great threat to the North Coast of Australia...

The monster storm is a category five now on both the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale and the Australian Cycline Severity Scale...

FAST FACTS....Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 136.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 km/h (7 mph)
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour (217 mph)
. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph (Catgeory 5)
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 905 hectoPascals (same as millibars - now as strong as Camille)

Camille was 905 mb at her strongest. Katrina was 902 at her peak. Rita 897 at her peak. Wilma was 882 mb at her peak..making her the strongest Atlantic storm on record.

A side note...the NHC says that the 882 mb from Wilma is probably not as low as it really was. When the Hurricane Hunters recorded an observation of 884 mb at 2:01 am CST on October 19, 2005, the wind at the aurface was 23 knots meaning the dropsonde did not find the true center. They estimated that the central pressure was 882 mb. It would be a while before the next dropsonde and the hurricane was intensifying, so indeed the lowest pressure in the storm was probably actually even lower.

But as it stands, Wilma holds the record now for the lowest pressure ever observed in an Atlantic hurricane...amazing...

By the way...here is a great conversion page to help you with the metric system items...
http://www.songslinger.net/convertme.htm

Here is the complete advisory issued at 10 pm Australian Time (They are 14 1/2 hours ahead of us here.) See what you think about how the Aussies handle their warning process...

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

MEDIA: Transmitters serving the Gove area are requested to use the cyclone
emergency warning signal with this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 58
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST Sunday 23 April 2006

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between CAPE
SHIELD and POINT STUART, including NHULUNBUY, JABIRU and COBOURG PENINSULA.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest between POINT STUART and PORT KEATS, including
DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.

At 10 pm CST SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica CATEGORY 5 was located about 100
kilometres north of NHULUNBUY, and 145 kilometres east northeast of ELCHO
ISLAND, moving west at 12 kilometres per hour. The cyclone should remain close
to its current intensity as it moves further west, just north of the northern
Top End coast overnight. The cyclone is expected to weaken slightly as it passes
over the base of COBOURG PENINSULA before reaching the northwest DARWIN-DALY and
TIWI ISLAND area early on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica with gusts to 350
kilometres per hour is currently passing over the Wessel Islands, and is
expected to impact other islands of northeast Arnhem Land, including the
northern parts of ELCHO ISLAND in the next few hours. The VERY DESTRUCTIVE core
is then expected to impact the north coast of western Arnhem Land between
MILINGIMBI and CROKER ISLAND during Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are currently being
experienced on other islands of northeast Arnhem Land, and are expected to
extend further west as far as CROKER ISLAND during Monday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the far northeast Arnhem Land coast, and are expected to extend westwards as far
as POINT STUART and COBOURG PENINSULA on Monday night.

GALES will continue to extend westward and may develop over the northwest
DARWIN-DALY and TIWI ISLAND area on Tuesday morning.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between CAPE
SHIELD and ELCHO ISLAND tonight.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and flooding of low
lying areas in northeastern Arnhem Land tonight, extending across the remainder
of the northern Top End on Monday.

Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 136.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 905 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between CAPE SHIELD and POINT STUART,
including NHULUNBUY, JABIRU and COBOURG PENINSULA. A CYCLONE WATCH extends
southwest to PORT KEATS, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.

The next advice will be issued at 2 am CST.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

It's hard to get a better day than what is in store for Central Alabama today. It will be warm and dry as aftternoon highs reach the middle 80s, about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Morning lows were very pleasant as most locations dropped into the 50s with some isolated 40s in those cooler locations. Soil moisture is rather high so there were some reports of patchy fog. Dew was quite heavy in my area when I went out to get the newspaper. Of course, I had little help as Dakota, my dog, watched me stroll out to the street from her perch on the front porch.

The good weather continues into the start of the work week with some high clouds zipping through the sky. That changes on Tuesday as clouds increase ahead of an approaching cold front. With that cold front comes a slight risk of severe weather across a sizeable portion of Alabama, western Georgia, southern Mississippi, southern Louisiana, and southeastern Texas.

The front should move through the area Tuesday evening with improving weather forecast for Wednesday as the front gets into the northern Gulf of Mexico and begins to wash out.

After that, the area will come under a strengthening northwesterly flow pattern as a long wave trough sets up along the east coast of the US. This should drop us back a few degrees to values that will be close to normal for the latter part of April. We could see lows into the 40s on Thursday and Friday mornings.

The northwesterly flow pattern will see a strong short wave move out of central Canada toward Saturday, so we'll need to monitor the forecast guidance to see what impact that might have on the forecast. But that is about a week away, and a lot can change when you get that far out into the future.

The video also includes a couple of images of Tropical Cyclone Monica which will be affecting the northern coast of Australia over the next several days. Kind of a reminder that our own hurricane season is a little over a month away. Bill Murray has some good information on Monica posted below.

Once again, I'd like to extend my thanks to the folks at the Hollis Fire Department for the invitation to their community awareness day yesterday. Jason and I had a great time. We both love getting out and talking with viewers. I've posted some pictures of the event and our trip on a post below.

Hope you have a good week. Stay weather wise and be safe.

-Brian-

Americans are overly familiar with the names of the past two hurricane seasons...Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne from 2004...Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma from this past season.

Australians are having a similar kind of season right now. They are tired of Glenda and Hubert and Floyd, and their own category five cyclone, Larry, that struck in late March on the coast of Northeast Australia.

Now another category five cyclone is threatening the northern coast of Australia. It is called Monica.

First, let me explain that the rating scale of Australian cyclones is slightly different from that used by the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia.

The Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Scale
Cat 1 74-95 mph
Cat 2 96-110 mph
Cat 3 111-130 mph
Cat 4 131-154 mph
Cat 5 155 mph+

Australian Cyclone Severity Scale
Cat 1 Strongest gust less than 78 mph
Cat 2 Strongest gust l78-106 mph
Cat 3 Strongest gust 107-140 mph
Cat 4 Strongest gust 140-174 mph
Cat 5 Strongest gust greater than 174 mph

Now the latest on Severe Cyclone Monica...

It is 1:25 a.m. here in Alabama...in Darwin, Australia it is 3:55 p.m.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology...

...Monica is 150 miles ENE of Elcho Island, along the North Coast of Australian.
...It is moving west at 7 mph
...Maximum wind gusts near the center are estimated to be 200 mph
...Central pressure 925 millibars

Satellite image of Monica: https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/satshots/sh2306sams.jpg

Forecast track: https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh2306.gif

Australian Bureau of Meteorology warnings Page: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/warnings.shtml
(scroll down to Tropical Cyclone Advice)

The cyclone will move parallel to the north coast over the next three days, causing severe devatation along its track. It is expected to be near darwin by Tuesday. Although it will probably weaken a bit toward the end of the period as it interacts with land, it is still expected to be a 130 mph cyclone with gusts to 160 mph by then.

Darwin was hevaily damaged by its worst cyclone in history (Cyclone Tracy) early on Christmas morning 1974. Tracy had top winds of 150 mph.

Larry, which struck in March of this year was the strongest since Tracy. Larry had top winds of 125 mph. Monica is expected to bring winds of 130-145 mph when it makes on Monday.

A Cyclone Watch is in effect for the Darwin area. A Cyclone Warning is in effect for most of the rest of the North Coast.

On this date in 1927, most of the Mississippi River Delta was a huge inland sea, under six to ten feet of water from a broken levee at Mounds Landing, Mississippi. The levee failed on April 21, 1927, sending muddy water surging over an area 60 miles east and west and 90 miles north and south. Twelve miles south of the crevasse, or break, the town of Greenville, Mississippi was quickly besieged by the flood waters. The city was inundated with ten feet of water. Terrified refugees, most of them poor African-Americans took to the top of the town’s levee, the only spot protruding above the raging waters. Searchers can only find homes by following telephone wires in their boats.

Without food, safe water, and shelter, outbreak of disease was inevitable. But local leaders refused to evacuate the refugees, fearing that they would leave the area and remove a large part of the labor pool that the cotton industry depended upon. A sickening display of power and greed, indeed.

‘PLEASE SEND US BOATS,’ PLEADS MURPHREE screamed the headlines of the New Orleans Times Picayune. The craft were needed for the evacuation of Greenville. The Crescent City was on edge as the floodwaters surged southward, threatening to swamp the historic city’s levees.

An even more sickening exhibition of selfishness happened as New Orleans civic leaders convinced the Louisiana Governor to dynamite the St. Bernard levee near New Orleans. The intentional break relieved pressure on the levees at New Orleans, but flooded all of Plaquemines and St. Bernard Parish. Residents lost everything and never received the restitution they were promised. Another travesty of justice.