Rita officially at 932 millibars....
Hurricane Hunters make fix at 10 pm...
Flight level winds 115 knots, which translates the 105 knot official max wind speed (120 mph.)

000
URNT12 KNHC 240324
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/03:00:30Z
B. 29 deg 01 min N
093 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2524 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 138 deg 115 kt
G. 055 deg 031 nm
H. 932 mb
I. 12 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3054 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 02
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 81 / 6NM




10 pm Observations from the coastal zone...

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BEAUMONT RAIN 76 N/A N/A N36G54 29.19F
LAKE CHARLES HVY RAIN 75 73 94 NE53G68 29.19R FOG
LAFAYETTE RAIN 79 75 89 E26G36 29.38F
NEW IBERIA N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 29.34F
HOUSTON TX LGT RAIN 76 72 86 N28G41 29.47F
GALVESTON NOT AVBL
COLLEGE STAT CLOUDY 86 66 51 NE23G35 29.68R
N.O. INTL ARPT CLOUDY 82 75 78 SE32G40 29.64S

Calcasieu Pass near Cameron...NE wind 62 mph gusting to 78 mph...water level approaching 6 feet. This is probably due to just wave run up, since winds are still offshore. As eye passes to west, onshore winds will result in catastrophic water rises in Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes.

Tornado warnings are now in effect for several Southwest Louisiana parishes, including Jeff Davis. This possible tornado near Jennigs along I-10 was moving radpily west and will approach Lake Charles.

At 10:45 pm, the eye of the hurricane was about 50 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana. The most intense part of the northern eyewall is about to rotate onshore in Cameron Parish.

The eye's forward progress may have slowed considerably. By my interpretation, the eye has moved about 12 miles in two hours in a general northwest motion.

It still should move onshore near the Sabine River on the Texas/Louisiana border in a few hours.

The NWS Lake Charles has issued a unique warning tonight...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* WARNING FOR ONSET OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO FORCE WINDS FOR...
CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 1200 AM CDT

* AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HURRICANE EYEWALL APPROACHING THE WARNING
AREA.

* DESTRUCTIVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CAMERON PARISH AND JEFFERSON COUNTY PRODUCING TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

TAKE COVER NOW! TREAT THESE IMMINENT EXTREME WINDS AS IF A TORNADO
WAS APPROACHING. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO THE SAFE ROOM IN YOUR
SHELTER AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE SIMILAR TO A
TORNADO. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
AND REMAIN IN YOUR SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE EYEWALL PASSES.

CALL 337-477-5285 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2966 9420 2980 9331 2963 9267 2991 9268
3004 9333 2996 9393 3013 9417

$$

06


Here is the latest information on Hurricane Rita from the NHC 10 pm Advisory...

Location: 29.1 North/93.7 West or 55 miles southeast of Sabine Pass
Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 mph
Central Pressure: 931 millibars (27.49 inches)
Movement: NW 12

Eyewall intact and intense. Winds appear to still be in the 120 mph range according to Doppler radars. Storm surge will be 10-15 feet with some locations seeing 20 feet.

The northern eyewall will be onshore in Cameron Parish and near the Sabine River within the next two hours. The eye will reach the coast about two hours later.

The hurricane is expected to weaken as it moves up into eastern Texas, but it will remain a tropical storm up to near Lufkin, Texas. It will begin to slow and stall over northeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. In fact, the three day and five day forecast positions are the same...near Texarkana, Texas/Arkansas.

Forecast package will be up shortly...then more information...

We are not the only weather office blogging this storm:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/temp/ritablog.htm

Nice to see the NWS alloting a person to communicate in this form. Even have some pictures available.

And, you can watch KPLC TV in Lake Charles live on the web here:

http://www.kplctv.com/

They are using a crude setup, away from their main studio. Using a single mike, and large papers on the small desk with phone numbers since they have no graphics system available. Their meteorologist, Curtis Atkinson, was an intern here at ABC 33/40 in 2000 and is from Blount county.

Just heard our own John Oldshue on the phone talking with Curtis feeding him information... go John!

Here are some notes from the NHC Conference Call...

Hurricane wobbling to NNW/NW (heading 325 degrees) at 10-11 mph.

Top winds 120 mph.

NHC expects Rita to make landfall near Sabine River, at the Texas/Louisiana border.

Current convective burst may allow for stronger winds at the surface. Remember that the pressure is stil very low. Air Force reconnaissance should be in the eye before 10 p.m.

Still calling for 10-15 foot storm surge.

Storm will stall inland over East Texas in thirty six hours.

Hurricane Rita will make landfall after midnight over far western Louisiana coast..

I project landfall will occur near Holly Beach just west of Cameron, Louisiana. Radar shows center of eye some 72 miles south southeast of Holly Beach, Louisiana around 8:15 p.m. It is moving NNW at 10-11 mph. This will bring the northern eyewall onshore in Cameron Parish, Louisiana just after midnight with landfall of the eye around 2 a.m. just west of the city of Cameron, Louisiana, on the coast in Cameron Parish, Louisiana.

This is going to produce a tremendous storm surge into Lake Calcasieu and across the marshlands of Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes. A surge of 15-20 feet will rush north across Lake Calcasieu and into the Calcasieu River and Calcasieu Ship Channel, reaching as far north as I-20, nearly fourty miles inland. The cities of Lake Charles and Sulphur will be affected.

More bad news...high tide will occur in that area around midnight, corresponding with the time of landfall. This will add another two feet to the surge heights. The NWS Lake Charles warns that places Like Orange, Sulphur, Lake Charles and Beaumont may be inundated. They also warn that the 17.5 foot seawall at Port Arthur might be breached, but that looks less likely if the center moves inland east of that location. Vermillion Parish will see a 10-15 foot surge. 6-10 feet across Iberia and St. Mary's Parish.

This is the same area that was impacted by Category Four Hurricane Audrey in 1957. 390 people died and 192 were never found after the storm intensified rapidly and accelerated in the hours before landfall, surprising residents of the low lying area who thought they had time to evacuate the following morning. A 12 foot surge was felt over a wide area of the coast from Cameron to Grand Cheniere. People who thought they were safe twenty miles inland awoke to find water levels rising into their homes.

Coastal observations at 8 PM CDT...
Just after 8 pm, winds gusted to 72 mph at the Lake Charles Airport....
At Calcasieu Pass near Cameron LA...winds NNE 52 mph gusting to 78 mph (hurricane force)...pressure 29.03...
At Marsh Island south of Lafayette...(7 pm) SSE 72 mph gusting to 94 mph... pressure 29.08...no reports since then
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BEAUMONT RAIN 76 73 92 N37G49 29.37F FOG
LAKE CHARLES LGT RAIN 76 72 86 NE43G54 29.32F FOG
LAFAYETTE RAIN 78 75 91 NE30G37 29.42F
HOUSTON TX LGT RAIN 84 70 62 NE33G44 29.53F
GALVESTON CLOUDY 79 73 83 N39G54 29.43F
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 82 75 78 E25G37 29.62S

This just in...
A magnitude 5.o earthquake has been observed 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. It has been determined that no tsunami will be generated by the quake, so no tsunami warning is being issued. What next?

This just in...

A magnitude 5.o earthquake has been observed 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. It has been determined that no tsunami will be generated by the quake, so no tsunami warning is being issued.

What next?

8 pm Position Update:

Location: Latitude 28.7N Longitude 93.0W or 85 miles SE of Sabine Pass
Moving: NW 11
Max Winds: 120 mph (Still category 3)
Central Pressure: 931 millibars (27.49 inches)

Monitoring KPLC Live Coverage out of Lake Charles on the Internet...

Go to this page for live streaming coverage out of the hurricane zone:
http://www.weatherserver.net/hurricanecenter/

Power out much of downtown Lake Charles. There was a rumor of an explosion at the Citgo refinery in Lake Charles, but that turned out to be false. All plants in West Lake have shut down.

NWS LCH Meteorologist in Charge says they are hunkered down. winds nearly hurricane force at LCH airport. Horizontal rain. Thirteen staff members in place at office. Being assisted by Sheriff's deputy. Confirmed our reports from the Calcasieu Pass reporting station on the jetty at Cameron. NWS LCH on generator power. Says storms is moving faster. This means a midnight landfall. Believes landfall will come at Sabine Pass, give or take a few miles. Still jogging right to left or even describing little loops.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BEAUMONT RAIN 76 73 92 N37G49 29.37F FOG
LAKE CHARLES LGT RAIN 76 72 86 NE43G54 29.32F FOG
LAFAYETTE RAIN 78 75 91 NE30G37 29.42F
HOUSTON TX LGT RAIN 84 70 62 NE33G44 29.53F
GALVESTON CLOUDY 79 73 83 N39G54 29.43F
COLLEGE STAT CLOUDY 92 61 35 NE21G31 29.66S
BATON ROUGE LGT RAIN 78 75 91 E24G31 29.58S FOG
N.O. INTL ARPT LGT RAIN 82 75 78 E25G37 29.62S

Calcasieu Pass near Cameron... 7:24 pm...Winds NNE 57 mph gusting to 91 mph, water 4 feet above normal...pressure 29.09

Breaking news out of Southeast Louisiana...
Levees are breaking over Southeast Louisiana in Terrebonne Parish at Cocodrie, Montague and Chauvin. These are on Bayou Du Large. These reports are from Brazete Carlos in Houma, Louisiana. Mandatory evacuations have just been issued for Chauvin and Montague. There is already five feet of water in Dulac. There will be significant flooding in the coastal Parishes of Southeast Louisiana. This is a disaster we are not hearing about. It wil be repeated all across Acadiana.

Amazing SLOSH model output...

Check out this link:

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/users/surge/r25_bpt.gif

It is SLOSH computer output that predicts how the surge will rise in coastal locations. It is based on the current intensity and movement of the hurricane.

It shows the surge arriving on the coast as the hurricane makes landfall. It shows a surge in excess of 21 feet over parts of Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes in Louisiana and Orange County, Texas.

It shows a 15 foot surge into Lake Charles and shows all of the city of Port Arthur being inundated by 15 feet of water. This is a major disaster in the making for these locations.

Lake Charles is over 30 miles inland from the Gulf.

It takes a while to load, so you will need a high speed connection. But it really shows you how the surge plays out. It was very accurate in Hurricane Katrina on the Mississippi coast.