Seems like a number of people are getting frustrated by the lack of snow around here. In fact, I have had notes in recent weeks from people figuring our lack of snow is from “global warming”, the Asian tsunami, or nuclear testing. The simple fact is this: Birmingham is a southern city and it just doesn’t snow that much here. Based on weather records here going back to 1880, we get a significant snow (four inches or more) once every nine years! The probability of getting more than four inches of snow for any one given winter season is only 14 percent. The chance of getting more than one inch of snow for a winter season is 38 percent.

If you look at the other way, the chance of Birmingham getting less than one inch of snow during any winter is 59 percent. So, the bottom line is that we should expect no big snow events during a winter, and for the snow fans, be pleasantly surprised if we do get one. We did have back to back winters with good snow events in the early 90s; 4.5 inches was measured here on January 18, 1992, and the following year the “Blizzard of 93” dumped 13 inches of snow at the Birmingham Airport, and almost two feet on some of the southern suburbs of the city.

But, we went a total of 23 years without a four inch snow from 1940 to 1963! Yes, we had some snow events in those 23 years, but they were all under four inches. I would image you didn’t hear about “global warming”, tsunamis, or nuclear testing back then. Just the simple realization that Birmingham is a southern city that doesn’t get much snow.

Keep in mind we saw some very nice snow showers in north and east Alabama this past weekend on Sunday morning. And, the winter is far from over. I have learned snow fans don’t give up easily...

And, YES, I am a snow fan myself!

The afternoon video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Quick notes:

*Small disturbance passes through here with some clouds and just a slim risk of a few sprinkles tomorrow night and early Wednesday. No big deal.

*A little cooler Thursday and Friday, but this time the real cold air stays to the north. Will have to watch for some cold air draining in here from the east Friday (yes, the WEDGE)...

*Pretty decent chance of showers late Friday, Friday night, and early Saturday. The latest run of the GFS moves rain out of the state by mid-morning Saturday, so if that is correct much of the weekend will be dry. No rain on Sunday as we will be in-between systems.

*The Arctic Oscillation, or AO, is forecast to go sharply negative again around February 10. Often the eastern half of the nation is flooded with very cold air when this happens, so stay tuned. Winter is far from over.

Watch the video for the juicy details...

Here is a roundup of low temperatures this morning in Alabama + some regional and national reports, including Great Smoky National Park and the mountain country of Western North Carolina. Looks like Valley Head took the prize for Alabama:

ALABAMA
10 in ValleyHead
11 at Black Greek (NE Etowah County--lowest in exactly two years)
13 at Wedowee, Hytop (Jackson County) and Talladega
14 at Talladega, Shoal Creek (Calhoun County) and Russell Cave
15 in Pinson, Collinsville, Belle Mina, Crossville, Scottsboro, Owens Crossroads and 12 miles NE of Huntsville
16 in Anniston, Mentone, Gadsden, Leeds, Huntsville/Monte Sano Mountain, Meridianville, Union Springs
17 in Addison, Alexander City, Huntsville (Airport), Madison and Oxford
18 in Birmingham and Moulton
19 in Tuscaloosa, Jasper, Cullman, Oakmulgee (Bibb County) and Section (Jackson County)
20 in Guntersville, Russellville, Livingston, Calera, Montgomery,
22 in Selma
24 in Lillian (Gulf Coast)
25 at Mobile Airport
26 at Grand Bay

SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
7 in Gatlinburg and Cades Cove with a trace of snow
0 on Newfound gap with 2 inches of snow on the ground
-12 atop 6400-ft. Mt. Leconte with 4 inches of snow
-4 at Beech Mountain, N. C., with 3 inches of snow
-4 on Grandfather Mountain, N. C., with 2 inches of snow
-7 on Mt. Mitchell, N. C., with no snow
5 in Boone, N. C., with 2 inches of snow

OTHER REGIONAL REPORTS
-3 at Mountain City, Tenn. (see note at the end of this section)
23 in Memphis
15 in Nashville
7 above in Crossville and Bristol, Tenn.
11 in Knoxville
16 in Chattanooga
20 in Tupelo and Oxford, Miss.
18 at Perry, Ga.
12 at Augusta, Ga (a new record for january 24)

At Mountain City, Tenn., where the low this morning was 3 below zero, the wind chill over the weekend dropped to between 20 and 27 below zero. Mountain City is located in extreme NE Tennessee on U. S. Route 421 that connects Bristol, Tenn., and Boone, N. C. The elevation is 2429 feet and that scenic town has a population of 2383 people.

NATIONAL
-23 in Saranac Lake and Watertown, N. Y
-25 in Glens Falls, N. Y., the coldest in the "Lower 48
11 in Milwaukee
+ 8 in New York City
+ 3 in Boston and Philadelphia
-1 in Pittsburgh
-15 in Burlington, Vermont
14 in Washington, D. C.
15 in Chicago
42 in Billings, Mont (26 degrees warmer than Anniston

In Denver, the high Sunday afternoon was a balmy 68 which was 34 degrees warmer than Birmingham's high of 34!

Temperatures in Alaska are "relatively mild" especially when compared to their recent bitter cold. Around midnight it was 15 ABOVE at Chandalar Lake where it was close to -60 just a few days ago. Even good ole Deadhorse, near the Arctic Coast was only 15 below.

The Monday morning video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Boston was buried by the big weekend blizzard, but some places did not get nearly as much snow as forecast in parts of western and central Pennsylvania. Winter storms always work that way; some places are hammered, and others are wondering what happened to all the snow.

David Teer, one of our web viewers from New Haven, CT, sent in some great images of the big storm in the northeast; I used one on the morning update and will show the rest on the afternoon video later today.

Anniston showing 16 degrees as I write this; for some spots this is the coldest morning so far this season. We go into the 40s today and 50s tomorrow as the warming trend begins.

A weak southern stream system will bring some clouds and a small risk of a few sprinkles late tomorrow and Wednesday, and then somewhat cooler air flows back in here on Thursday and Friday. No sign of another big cold blast like this for the next seven days.

The weekend might be a little wet, especially Saturday. Not good for little league baseball evaluations, but we do need the rain. Our total for the month is only 1.46", about two and a half inches below normal....

Watching the almanac: Starting on January 7th, Birmingham slid into its coldest period of the year according to climate records. From January 7th through January 20th, Birmingham highs and lows average 52F and 32F respectively. But something happens on January 21st. That average high slips back up to 53F. By the end of the month, our daytime highs will be averaging 55 degrees, and overnight lows still just above freezing at 33 degrees.

Those average highs will jump six degrees in February to 62F and eight degrees in March to 70F by the end of the month. April and May will see seven degree jumps. By the end of May, the average high will be 84F. Those average highs will continue to rise until the period between July 15th through August 15th, when they will peak at 91F.

Something else has been afoot lately. Starting on January 15th (really around January 8th, probably,) our sunrise times started to get earlier each morning. Interestingly enough, our sunset times have been getting later since early December. That explanation is beyond the scope of this column. Suffice it to say, that the days are getting longer, and the temperatures will continue to get warmer.