The ninth annual ABC 33/40 Storm Alert weather tour kicks off one week from tomorrow night at the Bevill State Auditorium in Hamilton. Storm Alert 2006 will feature some great Alabama weather stories, and it is fitting that we begin the show in Hamilton since one of our features will be on the latest weather technology that we have in our operation, designed and manufactured by a company in Hamilton.

StratusStation Group, Inc. was formed by Alabama individuals with a vision for a new and improved way of monitoring the weather in real-time. Their idea was to deliver a network of live controllable video feeds with real time weather data via the Internet. After months of research and development, their product is complete and ready for deployment. ABC 33/40 is their first broadcast customer, and our new “Sky Cam” network is now being installed at various locations across the state.

Our old “Pinpoint Neighborhood Weathernet” is being replaced by this new network, which will feature live video cameras at each site. These cameras have full pan/tilt/zoom control, and those controls are at our fingertips in the weather office. From Gulf Shores to various locations across North Alabama, we will be able to show you live video of the Alabama sky, which will be invaluable during times of severe weather. As we have said here many times over the years, Doppler Radar does NOT dectect tornadoes. It shows areas of rotation within the radar beam, which can be as high as 10,000 feet in a thunderstorm (the radar beam goes in a straight line; the Earth curves. These cameras will give us ground truth on radar signatures, and will greatly prevent false warnings.

The network will be built in the coming six to nine months; we hope to have six cameras/weather data sites online by the middle part of February. Learn more about our new Sky Cam network on the Storm Alert 2006 tour!

And, read more about Status Station here:

http://www.stratusstation.com/

I know many other TV weather people around the nation read our posts... I strongly encourage you to check them out!

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

What a beautiful day. Blue sky, sunshine, and temperatures in the low 60s. The weather stays dry through mid-week, but a very cold upper trough over the northeast U.S. will send some cooler air down this way. Highs will drop into the 50s tomorrow and Thursday, and early morning lows will be below the freezing mark in many areas. The coldest morning will come early Thursday. Both the NAM and the GFS are showing 27 degrees for Birmingham; the colder valleys should drop into the low 20s.

WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: Clouds returns on Saturday, and we will continue to highlight rain and storms for Saturday night and Sunday. The 12Z GFS suggests the best threat of wet weather will come from about 6:00 p.m. Saturday through 3:00 p.m. Sunday. Another soaking is likely, with most spots seeing between one and two inches of rain. Based on the strength of the upper air system, strong to severe storms could be a problem as well. Not sure the air can become unstable enough for a big severe weather problem, but it is not out of the question. We will keep an eye on the situation.

Cooler and drier air returns to the state early next week.

LONG RANGE: Still plenty of evidence to suggest colder and unsettled weather in February for much of the nation. A negative phase of the NAO/AO should bring some cold air down into the U.S., and the GFS continues to hint at an active southern branch of the jet stream. Should make for some fun days in the weather office. But, for new readers, there is very little skill in a SPECIFIC weather forecast beyond seven days. We simply look at trends beyond seven days... and there reasonable skill in doing that based on teleconnections.

Thanks to the 1st graders at Myrtlewood Elementary School down in Fosters today for a great visit (the school is just west of the Black Warrior River, about 10 miles southwest of Tuscaloosa. They will be featured today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 on the KIDCAM.

I will have the next map discussion video on the server by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow...

As we all know (or feel) December was cold and January so far as averaged very mild. Next heating bill may be a little more welcome.

Here is a rundown on how we are doing so far in January both with temperature and rainfall. Data listed: Average high/low and total rainfall through yesterday (Jan. 23)

Birmingham 62/41 5.34
Anniston 62/39 4.96
Montgomery 65/41 3.18
Tuscaloosa 64/40 4.61
Decatur 59/39 3.28
Muscle Shoals 60/38 4.48
Shelby County Airport (NWS Office) 62/41 4.52

NOTES
Over most of Central Alabama the normal high temperature at this time of year is around 53 and the normal low 32. So daytime temperatures are averaging close to 10 degrees warmer than normal and overnight lows 7 to 9 degrees too warm. That is quite significant.

Rainfall is averaging about 0.75 to 1.25 inches wetter than normal.

At Birmingham Airport, the temperature has not been below 28 so far in January. That could spell trouble next summer if we have an over-population of gnats, spiders, mosquitoes, beetles, wood roaches and other "varmints"

Of course, winter is far from over.

Maybe we can reverse this story in February.

Based on long-term records at Birmingham Airport, normally the coldest part of the winter is between January 7 and January 19. During that stretch the "normal" high/low is 52/32. The normal high edged upward to 53 on January 20 and the normal low will be 33 by the end of January.

Don't put too many eggs in that basket. Those are mean values. The weather is hardly ever "normal."

Life goes on, hot or cold, warm or cool, or somewhere in between.

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

"Little darling, it’s been a long cold lonely winter
Little darling, it feels like years since it’s been here
Here comes the sun, here comes the sun
And I say it’s all right"

The northern half of Alabama will enjoy returning sunshine today. We still have some leftover fog and low clouds in some areas, but those should dissipate soon.

Maps today show a ULL (upper level low) south of San Diego, and a strong clipper moving across the Great Lakes. That clipper will carve out a cold trough over the northeast U.S. tomorrow, and will drive colder air down this way. The new guidance is now suggesting highs only in the 50 to 55 degree range tomorrow, and temperatures down in the 20s by Thursday morning. The air stays dry and we will have no rain here through Friday.

WEEKEND: The 06Z GFS is more aggressive with the weekend storm system. It shows a strong, negative tilt upper trough over Missouri and Arkansas, and if this solution is correct it will bring the risk of heavy rain to the state Saturday night and Sunday. And, maybe even some severe weather. As always in January, the amount of instability will be an issue... but even with marginal instability issues will have to watch for strong to severe thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of one to two inches look likely.

We should note it looks like much of the day Saturday will be dry before the system moves in here.

LONG RANGE: The nation should be much colder as February begins, as noted here over the last week or so. Sure looks interesting; the GFS likes the idea of cold air flooding much of the nation, with an active southern stream undercutting the cold air. If this is correct, most likely there will be multiple winter storm threats somewhere across the Deep South. Alabama? Maybe. I can't imagine us not having at least one threat in this kind of pattern. Hang on and stay tuned.

TODAY: Headed down to West Alabama today to see the kids at Myrtlewood Elementary in Fosters, which is about 10 miles southwest of Tuscaloosa just below the Black Warrior River. FYI... The name Myrtlewood was chosen because of the many crepe myrtles growing in the three communities served by the school, Fosters, Ralph, and Romulus.

I will be back in time to get the afternoon map discussion video posted by 3:30....