Boy, this has been one of those days when I had a hard time finding time to gather my thoughts. And this is supposed to be spring break!
Been looking at the 18Z model data...
I still think we might be setting up for two potential rounds of severe storms this weekend. The first coming in the 6:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. time frame (Saturday night/early Sunday morning), and the second in the 3:00 p.m. to midnight time frame (Sunday evening and Sunday night).
Not sure if the atmosphere can re-charge for that second wave, but it is not out of the question.
This evening severe storms are blowing up over Oklahoma... and a watch box was just issued.
We will have to keep an eye on those... some of them might try to slide this way tomorrow along a weak front that should become stationary across the Tennessee Valley....
I am at work on the Friday morning forecast package; I will have it posted over on the seven day discussion and forecast page by 10:00 tonight.
Thoughts On The Weekend
March 24, 2005, 7:31 pm
by James Spann
in Severe Weather
Get Set For 80
March 24, 2005, 2:05 pm
The Thursday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
No real change in our thinking from this morning... looks like we might see 80 tomorrow and Saturday, and some severe weather is likely over the weekend. Watch the video for details, or see the morning update below.
We are getting set to tape our Sunday night special... will have more here late this afternoon...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
No real change in our thinking from this morning... looks like we might see 80 tomorrow and Saturday, and some severe weather is likely over the weekend. Watch the video for details, or see the morning update below.
We are getting set to tape our Sunday night special... will have more here late this afternoon...
HAIL IN BURNTOUT
March 24, 2005, 11:25 am
We saw a hail report in our last severe weather event out of NW Alabama's Franklin County.
The report mentioned the community of "Burntout" located on Alabama State Route 24 east of Red Bay.
Naturally, that caught my attention because I am intrigued by interesting place names and how the names came about.
Does that mean that once the community had a fire and was "burnt" out? Some folks sometimes pronounce "burned" out as "burnt" out.
Just wondering.
And while I am roaming, despite living in Alabama all my life, I have never been to the Cedar Creek Reservoir west of Russellville and NE of Red Bay. It looks like a pretty site on my detailed topographic map.
If I see a back road, off a back road, off a back road, I am always tempted.
The report mentioned the community of "Burntout" located on Alabama State Route 24 east of Red Bay.
Naturally, that caught my attention because I am intrigued by interesting place names and how the names came about.
Does that mean that once the community had a fire and was "burnt" out? Some folks sometimes pronounce "burned" out as "burnt" out.
Just wondering.
And while I am roaming, despite living in Alabama all my life, I have never been to the Cedar Creek Reservoir west of Russellville and NE of Red Bay. It looks like a pretty site on my detailed topographic map.
If I see a back road, off a back road, off a back road, I am always tempted.
SICK OF SNOW
March 24, 2005, 11:15 am
Youngsters here in Alabama are literally begging for snow. I have never heard so many snow requests in my 40+ years of working in weather.
Not so in New England. More and more people in the Northeast are sick of snow and a lot of them are wanting to move to a different climate.
Even before last night's snow, would you believe that Boston had already received 86 inches of snow this winter? That is a whopping 45 inches above normal.
So, overnight and early today, these additional amounts:
8 inches at Bristol and Hartford, Conn.
3 to 4 inches in Eastern Massachusetts, including Boston-Worcester areas.
10 inches at Ashfield and Goshen, Mass.
6 inches at Exeter, N. H.
With temperatures near freezing, it was a heavy, wet snow. The weight of the snow at Exeter, N. H., brought down an 80-foot antenna.
Not so in New England. More and more people in the Northeast are sick of snow and a lot of them are wanting to move to a different climate.
Even before last night's snow, would you believe that Boston had already received 86 inches of snow this winter? That is a whopping 45 inches above normal.
So, overnight and early today, these additional amounts:
8 inches at Bristol and Hartford, Conn.
3 to 4 inches in Eastern Massachusetts, including Boston-Worcester areas.
10 inches at Ashfield and Goshen, Mass.
6 inches at Exeter, N. H.
With temperatures near freezing, it was a heavy, wet snow. The weight of the snow at Exeter, N. H., brought down an 80-foot antenna.
by J.B. Elliott
in Winter Weather
A Big Warm-Up
March 24, 2005, 7:06 am
The Thursday morning web video update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Let me plug our one hour Storm Alert 2005 TV special... if you missed the tour this year, you can see most of the video elements in the TV show that will air this Sunday evening on ABC 33/40 from 6:00 until 7:00 p.m. See stories about Bill Murray's tornado chase in the plains, Hurricane Ivan, and much more.
Wow... how about that J.B. Elliott blog post at 2:04 a.m.! I love reading about his adventures with Miss Molly. Better than watching an Andy Griffith show.
COMING WEATHER ATTRACTIONS:
*Looks like we go into the low 70s easily today, and both models are now showing 80 degrees tomorrow. Looks like we will need to bump forecast high temperatures up a bit tomorrow.... I have mentioned a few widely scattered showers tomorrow in the forecast package, but both models look pretty dry. If any showers form, they should come later in the day with a weak surface front sagging into the state from the north. The ultimate position of that front will play a big role in the severe weather potential this weekend.
*Easter weekend severe threat: The air will be very unstable over Alabama south of the stalled from on Saturday, with CAPE values exceeding 2000. A deep upper trough will approach from the west, and you know what happens. Looks like we will have the chance of scattered thunderstorms during the day Saturday, and a few isolated severe storms are possible. But the main organized severe weather event seems to be shaping up for Saturday night and early Easter Sunday morning, most likely in the 8:00 p.m. to 8:00 a.m. time frame.
SPC has about the southern two-thirds of Alabama in a severe weather risk for Saturday and Saturday night, and they indicate it will be upgraded to a moderate risk tomorrow. Looks like another significant severe weather event across the deep south, so once again you will need to be close to a good source of weather information. EVERY ALABAMA CHURCH NEEDS TO HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER PLAN, AND A NOAA WEATHER RADIO. I put that in all caps because a majority of Alabama churches do not have a plan and a weather radio receiver. While it is beginning to look like the severe weather threat this weekend will come before church services begin, we still need to address this issue. We all remember the tragedy at the Goshen United Methodist Church on Palm Sunday in 1994. Watch the 30 minute special when you have time on our video page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
(Scroll down to the Palm Sunday tornado special, which aired last year. You can watch the entire program online)
The GFS and the NAM both have a dry slot in here by mid-morning Sunday, so it now looks like we will break out into sunshine by the time you get out of church. We have to wonder if we will have one more batch of storms along the actual cold front Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. Not out of the question.
*More stormy periods: The GFS is advertising the potential for more stomy weather around here around March 31 and April 5. No doubt this is the core of the spring tornado season.
Looking forward to lunch today with Brian Peters of our staff and Bill Collum and his gang from the Chilton county EMA. Be back in the office after that with the afternoon update later today...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Let me plug our one hour Storm Alert 2005 TV special... if you missed the tour this year, you can see most of the video elements in the TV show that will air this Sunday evening on ABC 33/40 from 6:00 until 7:00 p.m. See stories about Bill Murray's tornado chase in the plains, Hurricane Ivan, and much more.
Wow... how about that J.B. Elliott blog post at 2:04 a.m.! I love reading about his adventures with Miss Molly. Better than watching an Andy Griffith show.
COMING WEATHER ATTRACTIONS:
*Looks like we go into the low 70s easily today, and both models are now showing 80 degrees tomorrow. Looks like we will need to bump forecast high temperatures up a bit tomorrow.... I have mentioned a few widely scattered showers tomorrow in the forecast package, but both models look pretty dry. If any showers form, they should come later in the day with a weak surface front sagging into the state from the north. The ultimate position of that front will play a big role in the severe weather potential this weekend.
*Easter weekend severe threat: The air will be very unstable over Alabama south of the stalled from on Saturday, with CAPE values exceeding 2000. A deep upper trough will approach from the west, and you know what happens. Looks like we will have the chance of scattered thunderstorms during the day Saturday, and a few isolated severe storms are possible. But the main organized severe weather event seems to be shaping up for Saturday night and early Easter Sunday morning, most likely in the 8:00 p.m. to 8:00 a.m. time frame.
SPC has about the southern two-thirds of Alabama in a severe weather risk for Saturday and Saturday night, and they indicate it will be upgraded to a moderate risk tomorrow. Looks like another significant severe weather event across the deep south, so once again you will need to be close to a good source of weather information. EVERY ALABAMA CHURCH NEEDS TO HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER PLAN, AND A NOAA WEATHER RADIO. I put that in all caps because a majority of Alabama churches do not have a plan and a weather radio receiver. While it is beginning to look like the severe weather threat this weekend will come before church services begin, we still need to address this issue. We all remember the tragedy at the Goshen United Methodist Church on Palm Sunday in 1994. Watch the 30 minute special when you have time on our video page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
(Scroll down to the Palm Sunday tornado special, which aired last year. You can watch the entire program online)
The GFS and the NAM both have a dry slot in here by mid-morning Sunday, so it now looks like we will break out into sunshine by the time you get out of church. We have to wonder if we will have one more batch of storms along the actual cold front Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening. Not out of the question.
*More stormy periods: The GFS is advertising the potential for more stomy weather around here around March 31 and April 5. No doubt this is the core of the spring tornado season.
Looking forward to lunch today with Brian Peters of our staff and Bill Collum and his gang from the Chilton county EMA. Be back in the office after that with the afternoon update later today...
MY TINY CORNER OF THE WORLD
March 24, 2005, 3:04 am
Well, it happens often when sleeping hours go askew during long severe weather events...bottom line, here I am well rested at 2 AM, early--very early--on this Thursday morning.
Sat down in my recliner last evening at 8 o'clock to catch up on two days back issues of The Birmingham News and USA Today. All I remember was the top headline on USA Today and then I passed out. It evolved into a super-solid five-hour power nap--actually a top-of-the line power nap. I understand that my little 9-pound shadow, Miss Molly, took her 5 hour power nap only inches away. She will not let me out of her sight since I had to ignore her for 24 hours during Tuesday's severe weather.
I just gotta cut down on my subscription list. One of my favorite new publications is "The Week." Not the "This Week" that you see in Sunday newspapers. Instead it could be called the Readers Digest of national and world events. Very interesting. I dearly love to read. Even when I don't have time to read, I feel good having reading material around me.
I also love to write. So here I am with a cup of fresh coffee. It tastes great at 1:30 AM. Since the weather story is already well covered by James, I will spill out a paragraph or so on one of my other favorite subjects, Little Miss Molly.
As soon as she and I awoke from our twin power naps at 1 AM, the little rascal was ringing the tiny bell on the back door knob. She needed to go. So, away we go on a walk in the middle of the night. She wanted to go the entire half-mile walking track but I negotiated. There is one neighbor's dog, a permanent back-yard resident, who always barks loudly when we walk by. I did not want to trigger the dog into waking people up two houses away. So, I offered Molly a middle-of-the-night treat. As soon as she heard the word, "treat" she was pulling me down the track heading home.
The world is eerily quiet at 1 AM. We did not see any varmints and heard not a peep from all our friends in the bird world. They were all asleep and, no doubt, dreaming of a nice, long, juicy worm. Thought I heard one old crow snoring but can't be sure. Probably my imagination. .
Molly finished her treat quickly and immediately started petitioning for a play session. We did. She is very persuasive. She has learned to "plant" her favorite toys at various places around the house so she can grab one in seconds when she thinks I might play. She had one wedged in the corner of the easy chair in the master bedroom and another tucked under a blanket on the bed. She knew exactly where they were and dug both out for our romp session. After 15 minutes, both our tongues were hanging out.
Hope you don't mind this middle-of-the-night intrusion of worthless chatter. Nice thing about this blog--you can scan down rapidly to the next subject when you see something you are not interested in.
Now, it's almost 2 AM. Molly is winding down. She will probably sleep till 9 but my automatic, built-in alarm clock will have me up making fresh coffee at 5 AM and ready for a new day. I am at my best at 5, only to start downhill at 5:01 AM.
Molly is either going to kill me or make me live 15 years longer. I vote for the latter!
Life goes on...
Sat down in my recliner last evening at 8 o'clock to catch up on two days back issues of The Birmingham News and USA Today. All I remember was the top headline on USA Today and then I passed out. It evolved into a super-solid five-hour power nap--actually a top-of-the line power nap. I understand that my little 9-pound shadow, Miss Molly, took her 5 hour power nap only inches away. She will not let me out of her sight since I had to ignore her for 24 hours during Tuesday's severe weather.
I just gotta cut down on my subscription list. One of my favorite new publications is "The Week." Not the "This Week" that you see in Sunday newspapers. Instead it could be called the Readers Digest of national and world events. Very interesting. I dearly love to read. Even when I don't have time to read, I feel good having reading material around me.
I also love to write. So here I am with a cup of fresh coffee. It tastes great at 1:30 AM. Since the weather story is already well covered by James, I will spill out a paragraph or so on one of my other favorite subjects, Little Miss Molly.
As soon as she and I awoke from our twin power naps at 1 AM, the little rascal was ringing the tiny bell on the back door knob. She needed to go. So, away we go on a walk in the middle of the night. She wanted to go the entire half-mile walking track but I negotiated. There is one neighbor's dog, a permanent back-yard resident, who always barks loudly when we walk by. I did not want to trigger the dog into waking people up two houses away. So, I offered Molly a middle-of-the-night treat. As soon as she heard the word, "treat" she was pulling me down the track heading home.
The world is eerily quiet at 1 AM. We did not see any varmints and heard not a peep from all our friends in the bird world. They were all asleep and, no doubt, dreaming of a nice, long, juicy worm. Thought I heard one old crow snoring but can't be sure. Probably my imagination. .
Molly finished her treat quickly and immediately started petitioning for a play session. We did. She is very persuasive. She has learned to "plant" her favorite toys at various places around the house so she can grab one in seconds when she thinks I might play. She had one wedged in the corner of the easy chair in the master bedroom and another tucked under a blanket on the bed. She knew exactly where they were and dug both out for our romp session. After 15 minutes, both our tongues were hanging out.
Hope you don't mind this middle-of-the-night intrusion of worthless chatter. Nice thing about this blog--you can scan down rapidly to the next subject when you see something you are not interested in.
Now, it's almost 2 AM. Molly is winding down. She will probably sleep till 9 but my automatic, built-in alarm clock will have me up making fresh coffee at 5 AM and ready for a new day. I am at my best at 5, only to start downhill at 5:01 AM.
Molly is either going to kill me or make me live 15 years longer. I vote for the latter!
Life goes on...
by J.B. Elliott
in Miss Molly
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