This is a quick update on Katrina...

No change in the thinking from the afternoon post. I still think Katrina stays well east of Alabama.

I have reason to believe some that there are some serious commodity and futures traders that read these discussions... and at times I wonder if some of the comments posted on our blog come from those guys. I also have reason to believe a number of traders placed orders today (and yesterday) based on a hurricane disrupting oil drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Accordingly, they "want" a hurricane to come toward the central Gulf coast.... as strange as it sounds. I notice oil did spike up a bit today... probably because of this.

My job here is not to worry about traders, but to tell you what I think will happen.

And, all evidence still suggests no problem for the Alabama Gulf coast from Katrina... I am not totally convinced it will be in the Gulf of Mexico for long... maybe not at all...

Florida (the peninsula) will have some big time rain from this system, and maybe some very serious flooding issues... and it will also bring problems for people in places like Savannah, Charleston, and even the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

All EAST of Alabama.

I will have a complete post here tomorrow morning by 6:00 a.m. Stay tuned!

The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Let me say up front I now think Katrina will be a non-event for Alabama. In fact, we could very well be rain-free from late this week all the way through the middle of next week. Our pals can breathe much easier now down at Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, and I know thousands of them read this blog.

Models are shifting eastward, and it now looks like Katrina will take a track similar to Jeanne last year.

Yes, we still have a couple of outliers to the west, including the GFDL, which takes the thing to near Pensacola. But, other models are in much better agreement now on a more eastward track. And, it is very important to note that Katrina has been moving just about due north in recent hours, giving credibility to the GFS idea.

Based on the blend of the best models, looks like Katrina will slip into the Florida peninsula somewhere between Melbourne and Fort Lauderdale, then turning northward while inland. Unfortunately, Katrina might move very slowly through central and southern Florida and it could very well bring huge rain amounts, possibly in excess of one foot. Then, the system turns more northeast moving close to Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, and the Outer Banks of North Carolina before moving out to sea.

J.B. Elliott pointed out that the guys up in Washington at HPC have Katrina moving into Mobile Bay early Tuesday morning. I think that is way too far to the west... I just choose to disagree.

Once again, you know the standard disclaimer here, with tropical systems expect the unexpected, and we are still early in the game. All of this could change. But, the observed northward motion of Katrina in recent hours and better model agreement sure lead me to believe we will be high and dry here in Alabama for a while.

ELSEWHERE: The strong wave in the eastern Atlantic should become tropical storm Lee at some point soon, but that one should recurve into the open water before affecting the U.S. mainland. And, there are more waves behind that one.

Another point to make here is that if Katrina indeed stays east of the Gulf of Mexico, there will be no upwelling, and the sea surface temperatures will remain very, very warm. This hurricane season has a long way to go, and it looks like an active month of September.

Next big discussion post will come early, early tomorrow morning, but sooner if something jumps out at us!

James Spann's afternoon discussion here on the blog a little later should be especially interesting. He will go into great detail about how we will deal with Katrina down the road.

Yep, some more showers and storms in the Alabama countryside again this afternoon. Can you remember the last time we did not have any?

But things are somewhat different today.

Most of the showers and storms are wetting down areas further to the east and south than on previous days. Around 2 o'clock, most of them were in East Central Alabama over Clay, Randolph, Tallapoosa, Chambers and Lee Counties.

Moving slowly SE.

And, yes, more of that dreaded lightning, so don't get careless with that.

TWO LITTLE HINTS of a coming change in season. The "normal" high temperature for Birmingham dropped from 90 yesterday to 89 today. Up in Desoto State Park, a pleasant 66-degree low this morning. Part of that is because the nights are getting longer.

One of these days a nice cold front will come through and we will throw a big street party!

As you can see from J.B.'s post below we now have tropical storm Katrina.

Looking at new model runs just in... it confirms my idea of the system coming into the Gulf, then turning north with the best chance of landfall somewhere east of Fort Walton Beach... maybe even east of Panama City. This track would keep the bulk of the wind and rain east of Alabama early next week.

Our friends in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach can breathe a little easier.

But, we have a long way to go and we are still very, very early in this game. Everyone from Morgan City around to Tampa will still need to watch this closely.

Much more on the afternoon discussion a little later.

000
WTNT62 KNHC 241209
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA...

SHORTLY BEFORE 8 AM EDT...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 40 MPH
...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA.

FORECASTER STEWART

The Wednesday morning map discussion is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Most of this discussion will concern TD 12... in the short term here we will maintain the chance of widely scattered afternoon storms today and tomorrow (not as many as in recent days), and then we should go dry on Friday and Saturday as a nice wedge of dry air moves in here from the east. The ole "backdoor cold front".

WATCHING THE TROPICS: TD12 sure looks like tropical storm Katrina to me as I write this... will be interesting to see the next recon vortex message...

Latest NHC track cuts Katrina over southern Florida and has it in the Gulf as a hurricane about 175 miles south of Pensacola early Monday morning. This track means the greatest threat of landfall on the Gulf will be from Morgan City, Louisiana to Fort Walton Beach, Florida.

BUT... I caution you it is still very early in the game and this track could change. Gut feeling here is that this thing goes into the Gulf, with the highest chance of landfall over the Florida panhandle.... maybe east of Destin. But, like I have written many times here, you don't make a forecast based on feelings. Feelings will lie and get you in trouble. You make a forecast based on science and facts.

Hurricane preparations might need to begin as early as Friday on the Gulf coast, with landfall possibly as early as Sunday night. But, landfall could be as late as Tuesday. AND, there is a chance there will be no Gulf landfall at all with some of the models keeping the system in the Atlantic.

In general agreement with the NHC track are the BAM, the NOGAPS, and the A98E.

The GFS (00Z run) wants to take Katrina northward, in the Atlantic, running from Miami to Jacksonville, just east of Charleston, east of the Outer Banks, and then out to sea. But, the 06Z run just coming in is shifting west.

The Canadian made a wild change; yesterday it took the system to near the Texas/Louisiana border. The latest run now has Katrina near Charleston by early Monday.

ANALOGS: Andrew and Jeanne. Andrew wound up in Louisiana, west of New Orleans, while Jeanne recurved over Florida and Georgia, never making it into the Gulf. I think the truth with Katrina is somewhere in between.

BOTTOM LINE: I think the best bet for landfall for the moment is on the Florida Gulf coast, possibly east of Fort Walton Beach and Destin. But, everyone from New Orleans all the way around the horn to Tampa Bay will need to be ready for action.

VIDEO: During these tropical systems I encourage you to watch the map discussion video that goes along with this post... sometimes it is easier to communicate all of this using maps.

Next discussion and map video will be ready by 3:30 this afternoon... looks like some interesting days ahead in the weather office. We will be stocking up on coffee, Buffalo Rock, and pop tarts for J.B. Elliott so he can get through.