WTNT35 KNHC 242051
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST THU AUG 24 2006

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...

AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THOUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 155
MILES...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 455 MILES...730
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...RAIN BANDS TRAILING THE CENTER WILL BE AFFECTING
THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...12.9 N...62.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

This is the view off my balcony this afternoon as a storm rolls in over Pike's Peak.

We are in Colorado Springs attending a Hilton function at the U.S. Olympic Team's training facility.

Here is the view off my balcony looking west at the Garden of the Gods...

The tallest peak in the middle is Pike's Peak.

Here is a good view of the storm, looking southwest.

Pueblo Radar at time of photos...

Just had to share those with you...I knew JB would appreciate them...I am sure he has been here a million times and has a great story to tell about it...

Be sure to scan down and read James' afternoon post including the latest information on the tropics...

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

The video is available in both Quicktime and Windows Media format... in addition to the iTunes format. Take your pick! The video this afternoon is fairly long due to all of the tropical action; all versions should be up by 4:00 at the latest.

HERE COMES ERNESTO: As noted on the post below this one, NHC will be upgrading the wave in the vicinity of the Windward Islands to a tropical cyclone within the next hour or so. Based on wind gusts reported across the islands I expect the system to be designated a tropical storm.

This is a very interesting forecast. I am not convinced this system will have a free pass to becoming a major hurricane. A large amount of dry Sahara air remains across the eastern Caribbean, and winds aloft will be pretty harsh from time to time. There are a series of ULLs out there, which can help or harm the system, depending on their position in relation to the cyclone. One is in the northwest Caribbean; another one shows nicely in the Gulf of Mexico south of Mobile.

We also have to note some major models do not develop the system... including the GFS, the NOGAPS, the UKMET, and the GFDL. The ones that do ramp it up bring the system to near the western tip of Cuba by the end of the weekend.

The model most bullish on the system is the Canadian GEMS, which brings it to hurricane status and on into the Gulf of Mexico. The 12Z GEMS takes the system to near Corpus Christi, Texas by Wednesday morning of next week.

I do think the GEMS has the right idea on a potential landfall location based on what we know now. Seems like the greatest threat will be the Texas coast, or perhaps the western Louisiana coast. But this is pure speculation. Nobody knows what will happen at this early phase of the game. And remember, the environmental conditions might prevent this thing from getting out of the starting gate. We will know within the next few days is this is a survivor.

DEBBY: Tropical storm Debby is no threat to land, and will remain over the open eastern Atlantic far from the U.S. mainland.

THE ALABAMA STORY: As expected, showers and storms are almost impossible to find over the northern half of the state today. As the old front dissipates, moist air will return northward, and we will bring back the chance of an afternoon storm in a few spots tomorrow. For the weekend, we will have intervals of sunshine and the chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday with highs at or just over 90. Pretty normal stuff for late August in Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: Needless to say, Ernesto will be our wild card for next week. To the north, a surface front will slowly approach, and the latest GFS run (12Z) now pushes this into central Alabama on Wednesday. It should bring an enhanced chance of afternoon showers and storms Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday (I am not sure it will have enough southward push to make it below Birmingham).

Lets say a tropical storm or hurricane does move into the upper Texas coast around the middle of the week. We have to wonder if some of that moisture will be pulled eastward along the front, perhaps setting up a heavy rain event for parts of Alabama toward the end of the week. Once again, this is pure speculation. Watch the video for more.

Enjoyed seeing J.B. Elliott, his wife Judy, and the famous MISS MOLLY today as I wrapped some computer upgrade work. I have to have J.B. ready for the core of the hurricane season... his blog posts are famous world wide during hurricanes.

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

The full afternoon post coming in about 30 to 45 minutes...

DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

From spaceweather.com:

Space Weather News for August 24, 2006
http://spaceweather.com

Today, astronomers at the International Astronomical Union's General Assembly in Prague decided that the Solar System has eight planets, and Pluto is not one of them. Pluto has been declared a "dwarf planet." Joining Pluto in the dwarf planet category are giant asteroid Ceres and Pluto's cousin 2003 UB313. Get the full story at http://spaceweather.com

Remember the information from Milissa Smith, Tuscaloosa, about two weeks ago about her missing dog in the general vicinity of BMC/Montclair, Birmingham (now Trinity Medical Center)

Here is an update including a web site with pix of Munchkin. Seem that she has been close to being found at times. Here is Milissa's update:
----------------------------------------
Unfortunately, she is still not home. She was seen by two people last Friday morning at 38th Street and Clairmont Avenue. We are trying to spread the word to residents in the Forest Park/Avondale area that she's been spotted in that part of the city.

It's only 2.5 driving miles from where she was lost, and probably less as a dog travels. It's an area with a lot of animal lovers, and we're told that several people leave food out for cats. When she was seen last week, she was described as healthy looking and trotting down the sidewalk.

We have the most awesome volunteers helping us look for her. Because we are out of town, several people have stepped forward to be our "eyes" in the neighborhoods. There are many people who are now riding around with leashes in their cars just in case they see her. Munchkin now has a Web site:

www.FindMunchkin.com

where people can go to see more photos of her so they will be familiar with her coloring. We are doing regular e-mail updates every day.

If you'd like to be on the e-mail list, just let me know, and I'll add you.

Thanks for your concern and help. I miss her terribly, and our other dog has been a bit droopy the last couple of days. I think he misses his
playmate.

truly believe that spreading the word is what we need to be doing right now, in addition to prayer and believing that she's found. The more messages we can forward to friends or people in the area and the more posters and flyers we can put up, the more people who will know to look for her.

Thanks to all of you who went out yesterday and put up signs. It was pretty neat, because I don't think any of you overlapped in where you placed them. Because of rain, people tearing them down, etc., they have to be replaced frequently. I think many of the ones I put up on Saturday in Avondale have been removed. Fortunately, some of you are working to replace them. If you want to download the new sign, you can go to:

http://homepage.mac.com/davidmcelroy/


Melissa Smith, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Department of Communication
Mississippi State University
Box PF
Mississippi State, Mississippi 39762
melissasmith1@mac.com

I know I am being overly dramatic, but I want to, just gotta, cheer about these low temperatures this morning. Makes me so happy that I want to jump up and down and write a song.

Here we go...

61 in Desoto State Park and Cullman
62 in Hamilton and Black Creek
63 in Valley Head, Crossville and Pinson
64 in Decatur and Muscle Shoals
65 in Jasper, Ashville, Ellisville and Gaylesville
66 in Vinemont, Albertville and Fort Payne

Nothing absolutely astounding about that, but the summer we have had make this morning seem like a special holiday.

Nice and chipper when Little Miss Molly and I were walking at sunrise. About 63 degrees. This morning it was 7 degrees cooler in Pinson (63) than Birmingham Airport (70) Maybe a lingering effect of the heat island.

(Please scroll down about an update on Munchkin, the lost dog(

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

TROPICAL TIME: Lets begin with an update on the tropical situation. Let me suggest you spend a few minutes and watch our video discussions (we do them twice daily)... you can see all of the graphics that go with what I am talking about there. Sometimes a picture is worth a bunch of words, you know.

DEBBY: This one will be a recurving storm and won't be close to any land area, so we won't worry about that one. I don't think many ships at sea read this blog (if you are on a ship at sea please let us know...

INVEST 97L: This is the one to watch... a strong wave approaching the Windward Islands. A hurricane hunter will reach the system this afternoon and we will know much more. Like other systems this year, this will be fighting the dry Sahara layer in the eastern Caribbean, but the low level environment will be much better over the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, if it moves way.

Most of the models put this thing just south of the southern coast of Cuba early next week, in a position to move into the Gulf of Mexico. While the GFS doesn't recognize the system, the Canadian GEMS does, and it moves it rapidly to a point near Galveston by Tuesday night of next week. This is much faster than all other models, but the location isn't far fetched at all.

On the other hand, the GFDL is an outlier and takes the system north of Cuba toward the Bahamas. That doesn't seem especially reasonable at this time.

Looking at the upper air pattern, it sure seems the greatest threat, if the storm gets into the Gulf, would be Texas or Louisiana. I really don't see any real weakness in the ridge that would turn it north toward the central Gulf coast. But, needless to say, this is extremely early in the game. And, remember, when it comes to weather in the tropics, expect the unexpected!

THE ALABAMA STORY: Gadsden has dropped to 64 degrees at this hour, and I expect some of the cooler northeast Alabama valleys are close to 60. Just a little hint of fall... we can thank the dry air over North Alabama for the comfortable temperatures this morning. Birmingham reports 70 degrees at 5:00.

Today most all of the afternoon showers and storms should be over the southern half of the state, where moist air remains in place.

That moist air will move northward tomorrow as the old front dissipates, and we will bring back the chance of widely scattered afternoon showers or storms. Then, Friday through Sunday, we will roll with your usual summer mix of sun and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Daily high temperatures through Sunday will be in the 90 to 95 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Another front will approach from the north, and we could see an increase in the number of showers and storms because of that. The same upper ridge that will keep that front north of here should also steer any tropical system to the west of Alabama, toward Louisiana or Texas. Of course that could change, but that seems to be the best idea for now.

LETS CELEBRATE: The average high for Birmingham drops to 89 degrees today... some communities over East Alabama never got above the mid 80s yesterday.

PARTY TIME: Come over to weatherparty.com for a gob of very interesting weather stories... remember at this site you are the editor and determine which stories make the front page! If you register you can submit links and vote on them:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

I will have the next map discussion ready to go by 3:30 or so this afternoon... the Quicktime version is loaded to the server first followed by the Windows Media version, and then the iTunes version. Lots of rendering going on around here... but my MacBook Pro rocks. I need to write another post on this computer... I have had it for about one month now. It has surpassed expectations!