Here is a late Tuesday breakdown of coming attactions:

*FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY: The wave passing through the deep south early in the weekend should bring periods of mostly light rain to the state. The dreaded wedge of cold air draining down the Appalachian mountains into Alabama from the east will come into play, which always makes us a little nervous about the possibility of freezing rain for the northeast counties. But, in our opinion at this time the strength of the wedge will not be enough for any freezing precipitation. Might be an issue to the east over north Georgia or the Carolinas.

*SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY: A much stronger system will roll through the southern branch of the jet stream late this weekend and early next week, and will bring the chance of some significant rain to the state. This is good news since we are well over three inches deficient on rain now for the year. But, there is some suggestion in computer model data that some strong thunderstorms could be involved. We can’t rule out the chance of some severe weather if enough unstable air gets involved.

*FEBRUARY 5-15: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) both go strongly negative during this period, which often opens the door for a flood of very cold Arctic air into the eastern half of the U.S. As always, we stress that there is very little skill in any specific weather forecast beyond seven days. But, the pattern suggests relatively cold air, and passing “Alberta Clipper” type weather systems will probably give us a few opportunities for some light snow at times along the way. No evidence of any major Gulf of Mexico storm at the moment, however.

Interesting days ahead…

The afternoon video update is on the server and ready for viewing:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Lets take the events in order:

*A weak ripple in the upper flow passes through late tonight with some clouds, but nothing more than a few sprinkles. The air near the surface is very, very dry. We should go back into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon.

*Colder air slips in here Thursday and Friday. The "wedge" might set up Friday and Saturday, but we do not expect temperatures in east or northeast Alabama to be cold enough for any chance of freezing rain. The latest 12Z run of the GFS puts a nice batch of rain back over the state on Saturday. I don't think it will rain too much, but if the GFS verifies it will rain for least a couple of hours on Saturday.

*The 12Z run of the GFS also moves rain back into the state quickly on Sunday. We are not buying this just yet, but a pretty decent rain event looks likely by Sunday night and Monday. A few thunderstorms could be involved; we don't expect any severe weather, but rainfall amounts of 1/2 to one inch look likely, which is a good thing. We need the rain.

*Colder air returns by the middle of next week, followed by a series of clipper systems that will give us fits. Still no sign of a major, wet Gulf of Mexico winter storm threat, however.

*Arctic Oscillation still spikes negative around February 10, and we look pretty cold generally speaking in the February 5 through February 15 time frame.

Watch the video for the good, juicy details...

I was looking back over some weather records, and I recalled that last January was below normal for rainfall just as this January is. But this month we've seen only 1.46 inches of rain at the official observation site at the Birmingham airport. So far this is the 13th driest January on record since 1870 - or 12th if you count the tie between January, 1927, and January, 1986.

Latest HPC 5-day rainfall totals only show between a quarter and a half inch of rain for central Alabama through the 30th. If that verifies, January could see less than two inches for the month which would place January, 2005, in the lowest 34 months for driest Januarys.

Just some climatological ramblings on a quiet Tuesday morning. As JB says, "Life goes on!"

-Brian-

The morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Here are the highlights:

*Little ripple comes through the flow late tonight, but dry air means minimal chance of rain. We have mentioned a few sprinkles, but nothing beyond that.

*Colder air slips back in here on Thursday and Friday, and the "wedge" could set up somewhat colder temperatures over northeast Alabama by Friday and Saturday.

*A fairly weak disturbance could bring some light rain in here late Friday, Friday night, and Saturday morning. The 06Z GFS shows very little rain with this feature.

*Looks like the next shot at some decent rain amounts will be early next week on Monday and Monday night.

*The Arctic Oscillation spikes negative toward mid-February. Our weather generally looks cold in the February 5-15 time frame, with a few interesting clippers showing up on the longer range GFS output. Still no sign of a Gulf storm packed with moisture, however. See the video for details.

Busy day today... headed to Jasper to see some school kids and then back to town for a packed afternoon schedule. Getting set for Storm Alert 2005... hope you can make one of the stops; looks like a great show this year!