The Fourth Annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium will be held at the Bost Extension Center at Mississippi State University in Starkville this coming Friday, Saturday and Sunday, March 4-6.
The Friday agenda will be exclusively for broadcasters. Mississippi State features one of the premiere broadcast meteorology schools in the country.
On Saturday, the event will kick off with a focus on tropical weather. There will be four excellent presentations on Hurricane Ivan, tornadoes from landfalling tropical cyclones and the flooding from Tropical Storm Gaston in Virginia. Then Dr. Richard Knaab of the Tropical Prediction Center will give a featured talk on operational forecast improvements at the National Hurricane Center during the 2004 Hurricane Season.
The afternoon session will focus on severe weather. One of the most important presentations of the day will be by Scott Blair and Eric Nguyen of the University of Oklahoma. They captured the Mulvane, Kansas tornado on June 12th of last year. Nguyen shot what must be the most impressive photo of any tornado I have ever seen that day. It was featured on the cover of the Accord Weather Guide Calendar this year. I will get to speak about my chase experience in Harper and Sumner Counties in Kansas on May 29th, followed by an excellent presentation by Texas meteorologist Lon Curtis on enhanced Tornadogenesis. The famous Chuck Doswell will speak on the past, present and future of storm chasing. Meteorologist Jon Davies will talk about tornadoes that occur in the unusual circumstances of low humidity or low wind shear. Severe weather coverage will continue on Sunday morning with additional presentations on specific severe weather outbreaks and other technical topics. The public is welcome to attend. You can register at http://www.msstate.edu/org/nwa/SSSS.htm
Severe Weather Symposium Next Weekend
February 25, 2005, 11:08 pm
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
Winter Is Far From Over
February 25, 2005, 4:29 pm
The Friday afternoon video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Had a great time down at Holy Spirit school in Tuscaloosa today. On to business...
Lets take this whole forecast and break it down on daily basis as I see it this afternoon:
*TOMORROW: A beautiful day. We go well into the 60s with a pretty decent amount of sunshine. It might be the last time we see 60s for two weeks, so enjoy it.
*SUNDAY: Light rain should spread in here from the southwest, and periods of rain will continue Sunday night as a surface low forms in the Gulf.
*MONDAY: The rain should end early in the day as a major winter storm begins to organize along the middle Atlantic coast. That thing might be a nice snow producer for the northeast part of the nation, maybe as far south as North Carolina. We begin to turn cold down here, I am beginning to think our high on Monday could come during the pre-dawn hours, with temperatures dropping into the 40s during the day with a chilly north wind. The Tennessee Valley could drop into the 30s.
*TUESDAY: Dry and cold.
*WEDNESDAY: Another storm system begins to spin up in the Gulf, while we stay dry.
*THURSDAY: Light rain moves in here from the south. The latest GFS shows the freeze line at 850 mb (about 5000 feet) running through the northern quarter of Alabama, so we will have to watch for the chance of some light snow over the far northern part of the state. Trying to get a firm placement of the storm is hard to do this far in advance, but for the moment it looks like the heaviest precipitation might be to our south.
FRIDAY (March 4): Another cold surge drops in here after the departing storm.
Beyond that, the pattern looks very cold. This might be the coldest first half of March on record for some cities over the eastern U.S.. based on the pattern. And, like I have been writing, I fully expect at least one winter storm threat for the southern U.S. along the way. Maybe two... between March 5-15.
I AM NOT FORECASTING ANOTHER BLIZZARD OF 1993. I have received several nasty e-mail messages from people who have heard that is what I am saying here. Simply not true... that the the beauty of the written word. You can go back to any post on this blog and not see anything like that. The 1993 snow storm was a once in a lifetime event...
My calendar stays busy this weekend... I will be back in Tuscaloosa tomorrow night to host a special birthday roast for Mayor Al Dupont, who turns 80 tomorrow! Between that, baseball practice, and duties at Hunter Street, it will be an action packed weekend. But, that is what life is all about. I will be sure and slip a nap in there somewhere, and eat lots of ice cream.
Have a nice weekend.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Had a great time down at Holy Spirit school in Tuscaloosa today. On to business...
Lets take this whole forecast and break it down on daily basis as I see it this afternoon:
*TOMORROW: A beautiful day. We go well into the 60s with a pretty decent amount of sunshine. It might be the last time we see 60s for two weeks, so enjoy it.
*SUNDAY: Light rain should spread in here from the southwest, and periods of rain will continue Sunday night as a surface low forms in the Gulf.
*MONDAY: The rain should end early in the day as a major winter storm begins to organize along the middle Atlantic coast. That thing might be a nice snow producer for the northeast part of the nation, maybe as far south as North Carolina. We begin to turn cold down here, I am beginning to think our high on Monday could come during the pre-dawn hours, with temperatures dropping into the 40s during the day with a chilly north wind. The Tennessee Valley could drop into the 30s.
*TUESDAY: Dry and cold.
*WEDNESDAY: Another storm system begins to spin up in the Gulf, while we stay dry.
*THURSDAY: Light rain moves in here from the south. The latest GFS shows the freeze line at 850 mb (about 5000 feet) running through the northern quarter of Alabama, so we will have to watch for the chance of some light snow over the far northern part of the state. Trying to get a firm placement of the storm is hard to do this far in advance, but for the moment it looks like the heaviest precipitation might be to our south.
FRIDAY (March 4): Another cold surge drops in here after the departing storm.
Beyond that, the pattern looks very cold. This might be the coldest first half of March on record for some cities over the eastern U.S.. based on the pattern. And, like I have been writing, I fully expect at least one winter storm threat for the southern U.S. along the way. Maybe two... between March 5-15.
I AM NOT FORECASTING ANOTHER BLIZZARD OF 1993. I have received several nasty e-mail messages from people who have heard that is what I am saying here. Simply not true... that the the beauty of the written word. You can go back to any post on this blog and not see anything like that. The 1993 snow storm was a once in a lifetime event...
My calendar stays busy this weekend... I will be back in Tuscaloosa tomorrow night to host a special birthday roast for Mayor Al Dupont, who turns 80 tomorrow! Between that, baseball practice, and duties at Hunter Street, it will be an action packed weekend. But, that is what life is all about. I will be sure and slip a nap in there somewhere, and eat lots of ice cream.
Have a nice weekend.
A Brighter Day
February 25, 2005, 7:32 am
The Friday morning video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Another busy day today; off to Tuscaloosa shortly to speak to the students at Holy Spirit school. And, a big THANK YOU to everyone who came to our Storm Alert 2005 show in the Oxford Civic Center last night. Over 1,000 people showed up and we had a blast.
Here is a list of coming weather attractions:
*The sun will be out in full force today with temperatures nearing 60 degrees this afternoon. A very nice late winter day. We should go into the 60s tomorrow with a partly sunny sky.
*We should have some rain at times Sunday afternoon into Monday of next week, followed by a sharp change to colder temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Check out that European thermal profile on Tuesday. Highs drop into the 40s, and if the sky can clear we have a good shot of going into the 20s Wednesday morning. The pattern for the first half of March continues to favor colder than normal temperatures over the eastern half of the country, including the deep south.
*Model output is pretty muddy on the storm system toward the middle or end of next week. Most models now supress the storm pretty far south in the Gulf of Mexico, with only light precipitation up here. But, we are still early in the game and there is little run to run consistency.
The GFS tries to bring a northern stream system in here around Sunday March 6 with some snow potential. There will continue to be a wild array of storms and waves in the March 5-15 time frame, and trying to resolve details this far in advance is not wise. All we can tell you is that the pattern favors cold and unsettled weather.
Lots of questions about why the "Weather Channel" and others are forecasting mild weather during the time when we are talking about cold weather. I guess they need to respond to that, but I can assure they do not have a single full time employee forecasting specifically for Alabama. Most of that stuff is probably automated based on model output statistics, and those MOS products skew toward climatology in the longer range. Pretty useless during periods of anomalous temperature regimes. I am not a critic of the Weather Channel, but my point is that they simply don't have a staff of 50 meteorologists assigned to every state in the union. We have a team of six meteorologists forecasting the weather on our staff, and it is all we can do to handle it correctly with all those people!
Sure, I can be dead wrong. Have been before, and I will be wrong again. But, my job here is to call it like I see it, not to conform to model output statistics. I have seen the GFS MOS be off as much as 30 degrees during very high amplitude patterns.
Back on I-20 this morning... headed west.
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Another busy day today; off to Tuscaloosa shortly to speak to the students at Holy Spirit school. And, a big THANK YOU to everyone who came to our Storm Alert 2005 show in the Oxford Civic Center last night. Over 1,000 people showed up and we had a blast.
Here is a list of coming weather attractions:
*The sun will be out in full force today with temperatures nearing 60 degrees this afternoon. A very nice late winter day. We should go into the 60s tomorrow with a partly sunny sky.
*We should have some rain at times Sunday afternoon into Monday of next week, followed by a sharp change to colder temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Check out that European thermal profile on Tuesday. Highs drop into the 40s, and if the sky can clear we have a good shot of going into the 20s Wednesday morning. The pattern for the first half of March continues to favor colder than normal temperatures over the eastern half of the country, including the deep south.
*Model output is pretty muddy on the storm system toward the middle or end of next week. Most models now supress the storm pretty far south in the Gulf of Mexico, with only light precipitation up here. But, we are still early in the game and there is little run to run consistency.
The GFS tries to bring a northern stream system in here around Sunday March 6 with some snow potential. There will continue to be a wild array of storms and waves in the March 5-15 time frame, and trying to resolve details this far in advance is not wise. All we can tell you is that the pattern favors cold and unsettled weather.
Lots of questions about why the "Weather Channel" and others are forecasting mild weather during the time when we are talking about cold weather. I guess they need to respond to that, but I can assure they do not have a single full time employee forecasting specifically for Alabama. Most of that stuff is probably automated based on model output statistics, and those MOS products skew toward climatology in the longer range. Pretty useless during periods of anomalous temperature regimes. I am not a critic of the Weather Channel, but my point is that they simply don't have a staff of 50 meteorologists assigned to every state in the union. We have a team of six meteorologists forecasting the weather on our staff, and it is all we can do to handle it correctly with all those people!
Sure, I can be dead wrong. Have been before, and I will be wrong again. But, my job here is to call it like I see it, not to conform to model output statistics. I have seen the GFS MOS be off as much as 30 degrees during very high amplitude patterns.
Back on I-20 this morning... headed west.
Page :
1