Friday night for me is almost like a vacation... I do not write the forecast package for Saturday morning (thanks to my friend Bill Murray), and I do not have to feed radio audio (I do weekend cuts for the 26 stations on the Friday afternoon feed, which is recorded Friday morning)... so I can really sit back, relax, study weather, or whatever I need to do (I must admit I am peeking at NCAA basketball tonight.

I have probably stared at over 200 maps tonight, and I am beginning to come to this theory... the most serious tornado threat will be over the central or south part of Alabama tomorrow night. The northern extent of the most serious risk is a line from Eutaw to Calera to Wedowee, with the southern extent along a line from Mobile to Evergreen to Eufala. I need to really stress we can have severe weather north of this area, but the dynamics and various severe weather parameters seem to really come together in that part of Alabama. Cities in that area include Demopolis, Marion, Centreville, Clanton, Alexander City, and Lafayette.

Concerning timing, I still think the most organized severe storms will come sometime between 8:00 p.m. tomorrow and 8:00 a.m. Sunday. However, a few isolated severe storms will be possible tomorrow afternoon during the heat of the day. And, we still have the potential for one last batch of storms Sunday afternoon as the cold core trough passes overhead.

I would not be surprised if the SPC goes with a high risk of parts of south and central Mississippi and south and west Alabama on the new convective outlook for Saturday, which will be issued in a couple of hours.

We centainly don't want to alarm anyone. But, on the other hand, we want everyone to be in a position to hear tornado warnings tomorrow night and during the early morning hours Easter Sunday morning. A large percentage of Alabama homes do not have a NOAA Weather Radio, and for some reason people think they should rely on outdoor warning sirens to wake them up. Those sirens are designed to reach people outdoors, not indoors! Tomorrow will be a great day to get a Weather Radio receiver for your home. You can get them at electronic stores, and many major retail outlets carry them.

The other burden I have is for people who live in trailers. Even if they get the warning, they often do not have arrangements to get to a sturdy structure in the middle of the night. In the words of John Oldshue, tomorrow night be a good day to bake a cake, and take it to the person in the nearest site built home. Then, they are your new best friends and you are going to their place during the next tornado warning, whether it is 3:00 p.m. or 3:00 a.m.

The new 00Z data is rolling in... don't see much to change our thinking. I note the 200 mb winds could top 150 knots here during the event... about as high as they get.

We also notice the instability values really going up again by noon Sunday... the CAPE in Birmingham hits 2134! The concept of a second wave of storms might still be valid.

Our forecast staff... John Oldshue, Jason Simpson, J.B. Elliott, Bill Murray, David Black, Brian Peters, and other associates across the deep south will gather together again tomorrow morning at 8:00 for an instant message conference, and I will post some notes after we are finished in the morning. I am looking forward to getting some sleep and a little rest for the voice tonight...

The Friday afternoon web video is online:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Let me stress up front the prime message here:

We are setting up for a major threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes across parts of Alabama over the Easter weekend. The prime threat will come from about 8:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Sunday. That part of Alabama along and south of I-20 is the highest risk area. Since we could have a tornado threat during the pre-dawn hours Sunday, we stress you need to have a NOAA Weather Radio, cell phone with E-Warn, or something else around to wake you up if tornado warnings are indeed needed.

TOMORROW: Another very warm day, with low 80s possible. We could see thunderstorms forming during the afternoon, and those could be severe. But, the main upper dyanmics come into play tomorrow night into early Sunday morning as a surface low deepens quickly near Greenville, Mississippi, moving northeast into Tennessee.

Model data shows the most unstable air over the southern half of Alabama, but a surface boundary near I-20 could serve as a focus for severe weather up this way. Steep lapse rates could mean very large hail in the stronger storms.

After instant message conferences with our staff and the NWS office over in Jackson (Jeff Craven on duty... he is really good with severe weather)... most of us believe this threat is more significant than the system that moved through earlier this week.

SPC continues a moderate risk of all of Alabama from Birmingham south for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The northern third of Alabama, north of the moderate risk, is in a slight risk.

SUNDAY: I am beginning to doubt my original idea of a second batch of storms Sunday evening. Models show hardly any instability now with low dewpoints moving in here Sunday afternoon. We will cling to the concept for now, but might take it out on the next forecast cycle for tomorrow morning. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms Sunday for all of Alabama.

The weather improves Monday and into the first half of next week... the next storm system is due in here at the end of next week.

Jeff Craven over at Jackson just gave us his ball park guess at this event for the entire southern U.S....

200-300 total reports of severe weather from TX to AL by early Sunday morning.

Lots of reports of Golfball hail and about a half dozen Baseballs.

15-20 tornadoes...with about half a dozen F2+.

That would verify as a high end moderate risk event. Remember, those numbers are NOT for only Alabama or Mississippi, but the entire southern U.S. And, that is just to give us an idea of what MIGHT happen. Do not hold him to those numbers!

I will try to post an update here between the 6:00 and the 10:00 news with more thoughts... have to get ready for the TV newscasts now on ABC 33/40!

The Friday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Get ready for more wild and crazy spring weather.

Another significant severe weather threat is unfolding for Alabama and the southern U.S. We still think most places around here will be dry today, with temperatures soaring to near 80 degrees. This will make for a rather unstable atmosphere, and a few thunderstorms could fire up near a surface boundary that is not too far from the Tennessee border later today. There is a slight risk of severe storms today in the general area from Dallas to Nashville, near that boundary. But, our main problems will come over the Easter weekend:

SATURDAY: SPC has a moderate risk of severe storms for the general area from Birmingham southward, mainly for late tomorrow and tomorrow night. This is a large moderate risk area that extends from eastern Texas to Alabama. They mention the possibility of a few long track tornadoes in this moderate risk area. We feel our main risk of organized severe storms here will come from about 8:00 tomorrow night through 8:00 Sunday morning when severe weather parameters are maximized. BUT, a few isolated severe storms could fire up tomorrow afternoon as the air will be very unstable.

Here are some of the severe weather parameters from the NAM valid for midnight Sunday night:

CAPE 1312
LI -4.6
SWEAT Index 330
Total Totals 52

The Significant Tornado (SIGTOR) parameter peaks at 4.7 near Piedmont, in northeast Alabama, at 6:00 a.m. Sunday. A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1. So, a 4.7 is a little troubling.

SIGTOR includes 0-6-km shear magnitude, 0-1-km storm-relative helicity, 100-mb mean parcel CAPE, and 100-mb mean parcel LCL height (weather geeks will understand all of that).


SUNDAY: A dry slot moves in Sunday morning, and we should be in sunshine during the midday hours. This will make for an unstable atmosphere, and there is a chance another round of severe storms could fire up Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk on Sunday, The greatest risk of severe weather with this second event will be from about 4:00 p.m. through midnight Sunday night.

DOWN THE ROAD: Another stormy period looks possible toward the end of next week, but we will worry about that one after we get past the Easter weekend.

IMPORTANT: Once again, every Alabama church (and home and business for that matter) need a NOAA Weather Radio so you can get tornado warnings. And, you need a plan on getting people into safe places in the event a tornado warning is issued during a worship service, or another time when people are in the church building. On this event, I think the severe weather threat will be fairly low on Sunday morning during most Easter services, but you still need to have a plan in place.

For Easter sunrise services Sunday, the greatest chance of severe storms will most likely be over the eastern third of Alabama.

We will make another detailed post here later today as the new model data arrives...