Seems like Miss Katrina has done a lot of damage in South Florida for a Category One Hurricane. One of the most serious damage reports was the collapse of a freeway.

LOCATION
At 10 o'clock tonight, CDT, Hurricane Katrina was centered some 35 miles SW of Miami with sustained winds still around 75 mph. The center had passed into the SW most county in Florida--Monroe County. Miami radar still showed a clear and impressive display of the circulation. The hurricane was moving toward the SW at 8 mph. Recent radar pictures seem to show that movement is gradually becoming more westward.

SPOT REPORTS AT 10 PM CDT
Punta Gorda...cloudy, wind north at 24 mph
Flamingo...west 14, gusts 31
Molasses Reef...SW 47, gusts 52
Fort Lauderdale...steady rain...SE, gusts 45
Miami...continuous rain, SE 44
Fowey Rocks...SE 52, gusts 58

RAINFALL
Strong spiral bands containing extremely heavy rain were circulating around the south and east side of the eye, mainly in areas south and SW of Miami. Already, 8.80 inches of rain has fallen this evening at Cutter Ridge. This is going to be an extremely dangerous rain event, especially for extreme South Florida. A storm total rainfall of 6 to 10 inches is possible with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches. After Katrina emerges into the SE Gulf of Mexico in a few hours, and at some point curves toward the NW and north, the western part of the Florida peninsula will also get extremely heavy rain.

LAKE OKEECHOBEE
Strong winds tonight had pulled water away from the NE shores of the lake and caused it to pile up on the SW side of the lake. The storm tide, because of that, had reached 17 to 18 feet in the SW side of the lake.

OTHER NOTES
* Approximately 400,000 people were without power tonght.

* Late this afternoon, a wind gust to 92 mph at Ft. Everglades.

* On the Florida International University south campus, a gust of 77 mph.

* At one point, the eye of the hurricane passed directly over the National Hurricane Center. We don't know what the mathematical chances are for that to happen.

* At Key Biscayne, a wind gust of 95 mph was reported .

* At Virginia Key, a recorded wind gust earlier of 87 mph.

WHAT'S IN THE FUTURE?
* Keep in mind the sea surface temperature in the SE and East Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm. Most of the time in late August the water would be about 85 degrees. Now it is 87 to 89 and in a few spots 90. A hurricane considers that high-grade fuel.

* Even the National Hurricane Center is beginning to wonder if Katrina might not become a major hurricane atfter spending some time over the arm open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Still a bit of uncertainty about where the second landfall will be, but it should be somewhere on the NW Florida coast. The official track forecast places it close to Apalachicola. That is not sealed in stone and there will be some hard looks at the situation Friday.

Hurricane Katrina, moving westward slowly, was passing over the National Hurricane center tonight! What are the mathematical chances of that!

Press reports now say 400,000 people withour power in SE Florida.

A Tornado Watch is also in effect for those ever present spinoff tornadoes.

OTHER NOTES
* At Plantation, Broward County, a 54-year old male pedestrian was killed by a falling tree.
* At Fort Lauderdale, a 20-25 year old man was killed by falling tree limbs
* At Key Biscayne, a gust of 95 mph recorded at a University of Miami facility.
* On the Florida International University South Campus, a gust to 77 mph at the National Hurricane Center.
* At Virginia Key, a gust to 87 mph.
* Some rainfall amounts so far:
1.59 inches at Miami
1.50 at Fort Lauderdale
2.02 at West Kendall Tamiami Airport

That rain will get much heavier with time.

It's all a part of Hurricane Katrina moving inland over SE Florida.

Just before 8 'oclock tonight, CDT, Katrina was inland and the eye was located between Opa Locka and Miami Lakes. She was still moving slowly giving her time to dump much, much rain.

Earlier, there was a recorded gust to 92 mph at Port Everglades.

Some spot reports early tonight...

Melbourne...heavy rain, wind east at 22, gusts to 32 mph
West Palm Beach...cloudy, east 28, gusts 36
Fort Lauderdale...driving rain, east 58, gusts 82
Pompano Beach...steady rain, east 46, gusts 59
Miami Beach...rain, SW 30, gusts 47
West Kendall...heavy rain, SW 43, gusts 55
Fowey Rocks...SW 64, gusts 70

Two people are reported dead from trees falling on their cars.

Press reports say some 400,000 perope are without power.

We will have some rain totals soon.

Hurricane Katrina was making landfall just before 6 pm (CDT) near the Miami-Dade and Broward County line between Hallandale Beach and North Miami Beach with sustained winds to near 80 mph.

In the last few minutes, Port Everglades reported gusts to 92 mph. Katrina continues moving slowly toward the west.

OTHER NOTES:

* The first fatality was reported late this afternoon when a tree fell on a car at Fort Lauderdale.

* At Pemboke Pines, in Broward County, numerous 10-foot trees were down at the Westfork Shopping Center.

* Ironically, an automatic weather reporting platform was put back in service today after being our since August 13 last year. Hurricane Charley wiped it out. It is crucial to forecasters because it is located in a relatively remote area in the Keys, at Iowa Rock, Dry Tortugas.

We will have more spot reports later.

Winds on shore late this afternoon increased to gusts of 64 mph at Ft. Lauderdale.

Miami radar is painting an excellent picture of Katrina. She is very slowly coming on shore on the SE Florida coast, roughly midway between Miami and West Palm Beach. Here are some late afternoon reports from Florida:

Lakeland...heavy rain...wind east 21...gusts to 29 mph
Melbourne...steady rain...northeast 25 sustained
Tampa...cloudy...north...gusts 28 (yes, they are already being affected by the circulation)
West Palm Beach...steady rain...east 29...gusts 35
Ft. Lauderdale...steady rain...wind north 53....gusts 64
Pembroke Pines...cloudy....northwest 41...gusts 51
Opa Loca...heavy rain...west 37...gusts 58, visibility only 1 mile
Miami Beach...west 17....gusts 39
Fowey Rocks...west southwest 47...gusts 52

The heaviest rain is still off shore, which is common since the heaviest rain is almost always on the east side of a hurricane. The center of Katrina is expectec to take 30 hours or more to slowly move westward across extreme South Florida. This will give her time to drop some extremely heavy rain. After she emerges into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico off Southwest Florida and slowly turns northward, she will still be a very heavy rain threat for the Florida peninsula, especially the western part.

We were given some bad coordinates on that NHC conference call at 3:00...

Their new track has changed very little from the morning track... NHC has Katrina going in east of Apalachicola:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

(click on tracking map)

Still looks good to me... Will be very interesting to see the new 00Z model runs. See longer discussion below.

These reports as of 3 o'clock, Birmingham time:

Miami...steady rain, wind west 23, gusts 35 mph
Fort Meyers...cloudy, north 15
Fowey Rocks...WSW 37, gusts 40
Leesburg...heavy rain, east 29 sustained
Melbourne...cloudy, NE 29 sustained
West Palm Beach...rain, NE 31, gusts 40
Pompano Beach...rain, north 31, gusts 40

At 3:20, CDT, Miami radar clearly shows the eye of Katrina with the west side of the eye just beginning to edge its way ashore at a point about mid-way between Miami and West Palm Beach (Maybe around Boca Raton or Pompano Beach)

Heaviest rain still offshore. This is going to be a huge flood-producing rain event especially near the eye and on the east side of the eye. Heavy rain likely over much of the Florida Penninsula, depending on the future track.

Not much going on over the north two-thirds of the state. Just some widely separated showers, none of them really significant.

Main showers, along with some thunderstorms over the Extreme South and SW part of the state.

The Thursday afternoon map discussion is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

*** Quick note: Max Mayfield at NHC indicates Katrina will be upgraded to a hurricane on the next advisory package due out shortly***

No real change in the thinking here on the track of Katrina during the next few days. I still think the greatest chance of a Gulf landfall will come somewhere from Apalachicola eastward to Cedar Key late Sunday night or Monday morning. In fact, the National Hurricane Center track looks very good to me; I think they are right on the mark after their adjustment late this morning.

Yeah, I know, three models have shifted westward. The GFDL, the LBAR, and the UKMET bring the system to Mobile Bay. I think this is in response to the initial motion early this morning (before 7am CDT) when the system was moving south of west. Katrina has been moving due west for the last few hours, and the center will be very close to Fort Lauderale shortly. I expect those three models begin the adjustment back to the east on the 00Z runs later this evening. Steering currents are light now, and the models are having problems with initialization.

The European model has shifted EAST, showing landfall around Cedar Key, in very good agreement with the 12Z run of the GFS.

If you want to see all of the model output, watch the video...

The upper trough late this weekend should indeed turn Katrina to the northeast, and it still looks like the bulk of the wind and rain will remain east of Alabama. Dothan and Eufala will catch the western edge of the system Monday.

Much of the Florida peninsula will see huge amounts of rain with this system, possibly over one foot in spots. Flooding will be their main problem over the next few days. If the system moves northward, just off the west coast, places like Fort Myers, Tampa/St. Pete, and Port Charlotte will be under the gun for lots of wind and rain.

DISCLAIMER: With tropical systems, expect the unexpected. Something almost always happens a little out of the ordinary... so stay tuned.

FAN MAIL: Lots of hate mail from people almost demanding we insist that Katrina is headed for the Alabama Gulf coast. Who in the world is rooting for this to happen? I still think it involves some traders hoping the oil platforms in the Gulf will be evacuated and shut down for a while, which in turn might lead to higher oil prices. Browse some of the stock message boards over on Yahoo Finance and you will see how some of these people operate. Once again, I am not here to make traders happy, but I am here to tell you what I think Katrina will do.

J.B. will be posting reports from Florida, and other points along the path of Katrina in coming days.... so stay tuned. The next full discussion and video will be posted here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. Who needs sleep!

ALONG THE LOWER EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
Melbourne...partly sunny, wind NE, gusts to 31 mph
JFK Space Center...wind east, gusts 32
Fort Lauderdale...wind west, gusts 25
Fowey Rocks (offshore)...wind west 35, gusts 38

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
Florida Keys and around the SW Coast of Florida...87-89 degrees (Very warm)

RAINFALL
Miami radar at midday shows that extensive rain has already spread about three-fourths of the way westward across South Florida. Rain will become very heavy. Radar estimates show that already 9 inches has fallen over open ocean waters 100 or so miles offshore from Miami.

The circulation of Katrina is clearly shown on Miami radar headed westward toward a point between Miami and West Palm Beach.