Late tonight, Tropical Storm Ernesto was slightly stronger over the Eastern Caribbean. Here are the basic facts:

LOCATION
Near latitude 14.8N, longitude 69.1W or about 555 miles ESE of Kingston, Jamaica.

MOVEMENT
Toward the WNW at 16 mph.

WINDS/PRESSURE
Highest sustained winds increased to 45 mph. He should grow stronger in the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum pressure 29.52 inches.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
Tropical Storm Warning along SW Peninsula of Haiti.
Tropical Storm Warning from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border west to the SW tip of Haiti.

TRACK FORECAST
The National Hurricane Center continues a track toward the NW possibly crossing Jamaica early Sunday. Passing along the west tip of Cuba Monday night and into the SE Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. Into the Central Gulf by Wednesday night. The usual caution: A frecast 5 days out can have considerable error. As this drama unfolds we will post increasing amounts of information on the 3340 blog and will increase the frequency of the posts.
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Looking toward our friend, the Gulf of Mexico.

Just about everybody—not just meteorologist will be looking toward the Gulf of Mexico all next week. There will be much anxiety on the future path of Ernesto and a lot of other people will be looking back with some very bad memories as the one-year anniversary of Katrina approaches.
Katrina roared ashore a year ago next Tuesday. We all know the tragic story.

During the coming week, you will see almost every major network, and especially the 24-hour news networks, anchoring their broadcasts from somewhere along the Gulf coast. Most likely location will be New Orleans. Hopefully this will again bring into sharp focus the huge recovery task still ahead.

Katrina formed over the Bahamas on August 23 last year, crossed South Florida as a category 1, then went on to become a category 5 and one of the strongest ever recorded while over the Central Gulf. Devastation was catastrophic from Dauphin Island, Alabama westward all along the Mississippi coast into South Louisiana. Damage from Katrina exceeded $80 billion with 1,800 or more persons killed. It was the costliest one in USA history.

So this week, nerves will again be on edge because of the uncertainty of Ernesto, the new kid on the block.

We in the weather business will be as busy as can be, but our heartfelt thoughts and prayers will be with all the people still struggling and suffering from Katrina. Keep a close watch on the ABC 33/40 weather blog all next week as this drama unfolds. We hope and pray that the devastated area will not be in the bull’s eye again.

Bill Murry will be back in the saddle for the Saturday afternoon forecast. I pitched in for him for the Saturday morning edition, while Bill enjoyed taking in a Colorado Rockies game in Denver.

Turns out there is a hurricane hunter in TD5, and it was just upgraded to tropical storm Ernesto based on the data...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.6 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT
660 MILES...1065 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ERNESTO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH 1-3 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DUTCH NETHERLAND
ANTILLES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N...67.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is coming shortly on the web and on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Way behind schedule this afternoon; our 9 year old had a school birthday party I couldn't miss. Gotta take care of important things first, you know!

The video files are rendering now and should be up by 4:00 to 4:15. Sorry for the delay!

WILL TD5 SURVIVE? That is the big question... looks like the mass of storms now is removed from the center of circulation due to westerly shear aloft, and there is a big mass of very dry air ahead of the system. Dry air can take down a marginal tropical system in no time at all. TD5 will either be a fighter and a survivor, or it will go down to defeat. Almost like watching a boxing match.

To my knowledge there is no hurricane hunter missions scheduled for today; so we will have to watch satellite images for clues on the storm's structure this evening and tonight.

IF the system survives, most all of the models take it through the Yucatan channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Environmental conditions in the Gulf seem much more favorable for the system to get its act together. The GFDL brings the system to hurricane status (91 knots at 950 mb), and makes quite a turn to the right once in the Gulf, much like the Canadian model shift this morning. The latest run (12Z) of the Canadian brings the system to near Mobile Bay, but as a weak tropical storm.

The GFS is beginning to see TD5, and it brings it through the Gulf as a weak system, to the Florida panhandle and into southeast Alabama toward the middle of next week.

We note the GFS is showing more action in the mid-latitude westerlies, and which could indeed serve to weaken the ridge to the north of the system and mean more of a threat for the central Gulf coast IF this thing hangs on.

It is simply too early for anyone to call a landfall point, everyone from Brownsville all the way around the horn to St. Petersburg will just have to watch and watch developments over the weekend. Lots of nail-biting going on.

Gut feeling after pouring over data this afternoon is still centered over Louisiana, and maybe the Mississippi/Alabama stretch. But you don't forecast the weather based on feelings, and that is no forecast. Lets wait until we have some skill in picking a landfall point using good science, and that probably won't come until early next week.

AROUND HERE: Hot and muggy weather for the weekend with sun at times, and the risk of a few scattered afternoon storms tomorrow and Sunday. Highs in the low 90s for most places.

NEXT WEEK: A front approaching from the north should enhance the coverage of showers and storms, especially toward mid-week. And, of course, the wild card is the potential system in the Gulf.

MAYFIELD RETIRES: See the story over on WeatherParty.com:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

Brian Peters is camping up on Cheaha this weekend; if he can't do video from up there I will try to crank out a video tomorrow and Sunday morning since interest is rather intense in the tropical system.....

Have a great weekend!

John Oldshue just forwarded me the following news. Max Mayfield, Director of the National Hurricane Center will retire after this season.

Here is a link to the full story:

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15361934.htm

The past two seasons have really worn on Max, I believe. Think of having that much respopnsibility.

When I was a kid, my career goal was to be the Director of the NHC.

When we visited the NHC in july, I asked Max how much longer he would serve. He said "He was good until at least 5 pm.". It turned out to be a prophetic statement.

Max is a true American hero.

Thanks to John for sending that info.

Read down for a special message from JB about Miss Molly.

Bill

I know we have much more important things to discuss on the BLOG, with Tropical Storm Ernesto possibly getting into the Gulf of Mexico next week.

But I want to take time to say Happy Birthday to Molly!

I wanted to post a salute to my little girl. My real human little girl, Debbie, is 43 and married with 4 grandkids for us. But today, I am talking about my little 9-pound pal, Little Miss Molly. She is 4 years old today. I know I sound like Molly is the only dog in the world, but I certainly do not think that. We have received nearly 3,000 e-mails about the daily Molly adventures and there are thousands of dog lovers who are just as proud of their little pals. I sure do want to write a children's book or at least a journal about Little Miss Molly when I can get my act(s) together. We have received hundreds of e-mails encouraging just that.

We could just as easily have missed out on Molly. My wife was visiting her folks near Salt Lake City and they happened visit a lady who sold dogs. There were 12 to 15 dogs in pens. My wife had tentatively chosen another dog with orange fur, but Little Miss Molly being only 3 months old was well versed in politics. By a wide margin, she kept jumping up and down as if begging my wife to "take me, take me." She was wagging her tail a whole lot more than the other dogs and those little bright eyes sealed the deal.

When Molly strolled into our house for the first time, there were 10 or 12 people here, visiting family members. She walked past several people and came straight to me, stood on her little hind legs, placed her front paws on my legs, started swishing her tail like one of those cardboard church fans and looked at me eyeball to eyeball. I was sunk forever. She instantly won my heart and has been a big part of my daily life since. She is never more than a few feet away and watches me like a hawk. She is constantly ready to play.

I estimate (and this is no exaggeration) that Molly and I have walked 1,400 miles. This is probably too conservative, because I am not counting the numerous times she reverses directions, dashes off track or chases the community rabbit. If those miles were in a straight line and we kept walking, we would now be approaching Yellowstone National Park if we went NW, approaching Phoenix if we went due west and Hudson Bay (way up in Canada where all the polar bears are) if we went north.

I have always been a happy person, but the nearly 4 years that Molly has been with us has enhanced that no end. This includes hundreds and hundreds of ballgames, chasing her around the house, tummy rubs, cuddling. She is still a politician. If she does not get enough play time each day, she tends to pout. She is the sweetheart of the community. When we are out walking, she knows where everybody lives that loves her and wants to stop for a visit. She is the most personable little dog I have ever seen.

And it still blows my mind that she whaps that little tiny bell hanging off the inside backdoor knob when she needs to go outside. (Translation: bathroom) But lately that sneaky little rascal has started ringing the bell when she wants to play ball.

Little Miss Molly has certainly reversed my aging. I feel that if she could stay with me another 25 years, I would be like a guy in his 20s or 30s. I wish we could both live as old as Moses--that would be great fun.

Please excuse this long BLOG post and I will get back to more serious business.

Life goes on and Molly has made the last 1,400 days more enjoyable.

WFUS51 KOKX 251440
TOROKX
NJC003-NYC005-061-251515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0003.060825T1440Z-060825T1515Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
SOUTHWESTERN BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT...

* AT 1038 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MORNINGSIDE
HEIGHTS...OR ABOUT NEAR RIDGEFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HARLEM AND MOTT HAVEN BY 1045 AM.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZED HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

LAT...LON 4112 7421 4100 7390 4086 7395 4084 7384
4081 7387 4081 7387 4082 7397 4080 7399
4083 7404 4077 7409 4077 7414 4086 7410
4096 7414 4100 7426

Retracing the footsteps of America's greatest modern day natural disaster from one year ago...


KATRINA – Day One - August 23, 2005

Tropical depression number twelve formed over the Bahamas at 5 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, August 23, 2005. The storm, which was moving northwest, was predicted by forecasters to make a westward turn and threaten South Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the East Coast of Florida and the Florida Keys just before midnight. The official five day forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center with the first advisory indicated that the depression would become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of Southeast Florida Thursday evening. It would then take about twenty four hours to cross the Florida Peninsula before emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.


KATRINA – Day Two - August 24, 2005

Tropical Depression Twelve continued to become better organized and was christened Tropical Storm Katrina at 11 a.m. EDT. Immediately, a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida coastline since the storm was expected to become a hurricane before making landfall.

Weather forecasters warned that the storm’s slow forward motion could lead to serious flooding over South Florida. They also were concerned that light upper level winds and warm ocean waters could lead to a round of rapid intensification before landfall. The only inhibiting factor was dry air in the atmosphere surrounding the hurricane. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center monitored their array of computer models and worried that Katrina could become a serious problem for South Florida.

The usually reliable GFDL model painted a disastrous scenario of Katrina becoming an intense hurricane before cross extreme South Florida and the northern Keys. This could have presented another Hurricane Andrew scenario for South Florida. Of course, that did not happen.

By late evening, Katrina’s winds had increased to 50 mph and the Hurricane Watch was changed to a Hurricane Warning from Vero Beach to Florida City, including Lake Okeechobee. Also, in the back of everyone’s minds: what would happen when the hurricane emerged over the Gulf. With Katrina intensifying and taking a more southerly track, the amount of weakening that could be expected as the storm crossed Florida was lessening and forecasters were faced with the looming possibility of a rapidly strengthening storm over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.


KATRINA – Day Three - August 25, 2005

Early on the morning of Thursday, August 25, 2005, the all too familiar twin square orange and black hurricane warning flags were flying over South Florida. Residents were beginning the drudgery of preparation for another hurricane.

Hurricane Katrina, located less than one hundred miles east of Fort Lauderdale, steamed west at eight mph underneath a ridge of high pressure to the north. Even though the developing storm was not a hurricane, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expected it to become one before it made landfall that night.

Strong thunderstorm towers (called hot towers) around the storm’s center and a well-developed wind field indicated that strengthening was a definite possibility. Official forecast graphics issued by the National Hurricane Center could not be ignored. The hurricane would cross the Florida Peninsula fairly quickly, and emerge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, where strengthening would be inevitable. Then forecasters and emergency officials would be faced with the frightening possibility of an intensifying hurricane in the Gulf, and landfall had to come somewhere.

Katrina made landfall around 6:30 p.m. near the Dade/Broward County line between Miami and Fort Lauderdale. A wind gust to 92 mph was measured. Three people died in the storm in South Florida, from faling trees. Katrina left 1.3 million people without electricity in South Florida.


More all weekend...

Bill Murray

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

With the tropics becoming a big issue now, I do encourage you to watch the video if you have time; it really explains the concepts I write about. The video is available in both Quicktime and Windows Media format....

ERNESTO? Tropical depression five sure looks healthy as I write this during the early morning hours. Good CDO (central dense overcast), and nice outflow on the eastern side (westerly shear is impacting the western side of the system). If the system looks like this later this morning I am sure TPC will upgrade TD5 to tropical storm Ernesto.

Watch the video and see the water vapor satellite image... there is a vast amount of dry air ahead of the storm, part of the big Sahara dust layer that has covered much of "hurricane alley" this season. And, cloud elements in loops suggest westerly winds aloft will be near the system for a day or so; this westerly shear is also a big negative for strengthening.

We note some of the global models really ignore this system; for example the GFS never develops the thing and does not show anything in the Gulf of Mexico next week. We have to respect that; there is some chance the dry air and hostile winds aloft will bring an early end to this depression.

However, other models carry it through the Caribbean, through the Yucatan channel, and into the southern Gulf early next week. If this thing can survive (where is Gloria Gaynor when you need her), SSTs (sea surface temperatures) in the Gulf are very toasty, and winds aloft look pretty favorable. The GFS shows a ULL (upper level low) in the southwest Gulf, which might help the upper ventilation process if it is far enough away from the system.

UH OH: The Canadian model has been all over this thing, and performed nicely during the past two years. The 12Z run from yesterday had the system coming ashore around Corpus Christi, Texas. The 00Z run from last night has shifted big time, and has the system coming into Panama City, Florida. It suggests a weakness in the ridge north of the system will pull it northward, toward the Florida panhandle. While i am not convinced this is correct, you have to give this model a good look due to its past performance. Remember, this thing could go into the northern coast of Mexico just as easily.

Everyone from Brownsville to Tampa Bay will have to monitor this closely... based on the general upper air pattern and climatology, the western half of the Gulf would seem to have the greatest threat, however. By that I am talking the Texas and Louisiana coasts. But, the Canadian run from last night sure makes you go HMMMMM. NOBODY knows the ultimate destination now, but we all like to speculate.

You can get the "official" TPC advisories over on our tropical page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

THE ALABAMA STORY: The muggies return today to the northern part of the state. The higher dewpoints could lead to a few widely scattered afternoon showers and storms. The mercury should reach the low to mid 90s again.

THE WEEKEND: Partly sunny and hot weather for Alabama tomorrow and Sunday with the chance of scattered afternoon storms. Highs in the low 90s. Just what you expect in late August.

NEXT WEEK: The tropical system is the wild card... but to the north an approaching front should bring an enhanced risk of showers and storms toward the middle of the week. Of course, all eyes will be focused on developments to the south.

ONE YEAR AGO: Very interesting to go back to the blog one year ago as Katrina was getting ready to make the move toward the Gulf coast:

http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/calendar/wxtalk/26,08,2005

You can use the calendar feature and go back to any post here back to 2004 when we started this format. I stayed up way too late last night reading these old posts...

Long time readers know this blog is our primary way of communicating information on an immediate basis during active weather (when we are not on TV and the live stream... so keep an eye on it in coming days as the buzz grows about the tropical trouble....

I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 or so this afternoon... stay tuned!