The Monday afternoon map discussion is on the web, and available on iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Notice the headline says "mostly dry" through Saturday... the one possible window for showers will come from about 12:00 noon Thursday through 9:00 Thursday night as a cold front sweeps through the state. The GFS, and QPF guidance from HPC suggests the I-20 corridor will be dry, and keeps all of the showers up north over the Tennessee Valley. It is true the air will be very dry, but the forcing will be pretty impressive so I think for now we will need to mention at least a chance of a shower Thursday afternoon, but amounts will be very light and spotty.
Between now and Thursday the weather will be beautiful; we will be close to 50 early tomorrow morning, with upper 40s for the cooler valleys. Wednesday morning should be just as cool.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Following the Thursday night front, a new surge of cool and dry air rolls into Alabama. We will struggle to reach the low 70s on Friday with a cool northwest breeze. We will be down in the 40s both Friday and Saturday morning, and I would not be shocked if some valley location in North Alabama reports a low in the upper 30s.
The 12Z GFS brings another cold front through on Sunday, and this time the model has enough moisture in place for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I think that is a valid idea and we will introduce this in the forecast. No all-day rain, but a few showers are certainly possible. Maybe even a thunderstorm.
The first half of next week, at this point, looks dry.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS continues to hint at a warm spell in the October 5-7 time frame, but then brings a doozy of an upper trough in here around October 11, which would bring perhaps a risk of strong to severe storms, and then the coolest air so far this season.
Been busy all morning cleaning out the e-mail inbox... thanks again to everyone for the great pictures and video from the severe weather event this past Friday night. We will be recording a new WeatherBrains podcast tonight and I am sure we will discuss the event; that will be ready on iTunes and the web early tomorrow morning.
I will also try to post the video of our severe weather coverage as the tornado was going through Oneonta... the warning system worked very well thanks to the partership between the media, the NWS, EMA officials, and the public. Our Skywatchers were excellent during the event, and the information was invaluable. To learn more, go here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/external.hrb?p=skywatchers&w=1
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!