With the possibility of some freezing rain for parts of east Alabama early Saturday, lets use this space today and define the various kinds of winter precipitation that can foul things up around here:

FREEZING RAIN: This is simply rain in liquid form that falls when the surface temperature is 32 degrees or colder. Once the rain falls, exposed objects are glazed with ice, and a long period of freezing rain is called an ice storm. This is the worst kind of winter weather we can have here in Alabama; lots of freezing rain can mean impossible driving conditions, thousands of downed trees (falling from the weight of the ice), and expended power outages. The last major ice storm in the Birmingham metro area was way back in January 1982, and we are certainly overdue. We need to stress here that we expect only a limited period of freezing rain early Saturday morning over east Alabama; temporary bridge icing is the only issue.

SLEET: These are small ice pellets that fall in frozen form. Sleet rarely produces any significant problems, even on road surfaces. We sometimes see sleet here as precipitation initially falls into very dry and cold air near the surface.

FLURRIES: Very light snow, and when we use that term it pretty much implies no accumulation.

SNOW: This tends to stir up the greatest fuss here in Alabama, but I have learned we actually have more traffic accidents with one inch of rain compared to one inch of snow. But, whenever we forecast snow (even flurries we all run to the store, buy lots of mile and bread, and stay home from work or school. Just a southern culture thing. For me, I supplement the mild and bread with plenty of Twinkies and Yoo-Hoos.

The afternoon video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

J.B. Elliott's afternoon discussion is posted as well:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/7day.hrb

Everyone is talking about the wedge... but we need to stress up front if we do see any icing problems over east Alabama early Saturday it will be temporary, and probably not a really big deal. Bridge icing is the main concern since the ground is so warm.

The CAD (cold air damming) effect kicks in Friday, with colder air rolling into Alabama from the east. The WEDGE. As rain begins to fall into relatively dry air, evaporative cooling will probably take temperatures to near, or just below freezing over parts of east and northeast Alabama late Friday and early Saturday morning. The greatest risk of freezing rain and bridge icing will be east of a line from Huntsville to Oneonta to Pell City and south to Ashland. This would include places like Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, Heflin, and Roanoke. Temperatures should be above freezing in these areas by mid-morning, which means any icing will be quite temporary.

A stronger system rolls in here with a chance of rain maybe even some strong storms Sunday night into Monday morning.

The February 5-15 period still should be cold, based on the pattern. Details are impossible to nail down this far in advance.

Watch the VIDEO for all the good details!

On a conference with our forecast guys this morning... the new 12Z data, especially the NAM model, is leaning toward some freezing rain now for east Alabama Saturday morning. See this:

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/etapllsup12/ptype72h.html

Don't want to jump overboard on this right now, but we will certainly have to look at raising the possibility of an icy period for east and northeast Alabama late Friday night and early Saturday morning based on this wedge situation.

Forecasting freezing rain with a wedge in place over east Alabama is almost impossible to do a few days in advance ... just too many variables. I have seen some of the most brilliant forecasters brought to their knees. I will admit it sure isn't my strength.

So... if you live in Gasden, Anniston, Roanoke, Heflin, Centre, and Jacksonville, just be aware that a relatively brief period of freezing rain and ice accumulation is not totally out of the question early Saturday. The good news is that the ground is relatively warm, so any icing would be limited to bridges and other exposed objects.

Will have more with the afternoon update and video a little later today...

The ole morning video update is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Sprinkles are very hard to find here this morning; looks like most of the rain will be over Tennessee. The sun should break out later today with temperatures back into the 60s later today.

Here are some upcoming attractions:

*Cooler air returns tomorrow and Friday. A big surface high moves from the Great Lakes to Pennsylvania, and will bring a wedge of cold air down the backbone of the mountains Friday and Saturday. This will play havoc with temperature forecasts; at midday Saturday Heflin might be 39 while Tuscaloosa is closer to 52.

*Rain moves in here late Friday night and the latest run of the GFS suggests the rain will continue through much of the day Saturday. I don't think the wedge of cold air will be strong enough for any freezing rain over east Alabama, but our friends over in Georgia might have a little ice Saturday morning.

*Any break in the rain Saturday night will be brief. A deep trough over the southwest U.S. lifts out and rain returns on Sunday. This one has the potential to bring some beneficial rain to the state, and maybe even some strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday. The 06Z run of the GFS speeds the system up and has the rain and storms out of here by midday Monday, but this might be too fast. Dynamics will be very good, but thermodynamics rather marginal for severe weather on Monday.

*February 5-15: Still looks pretty cold. Maybe real cold. NAO and AO spike negative; a polar vortex sets up over the Great Lakes. Details are very, very muddy as you expect in any outlook beyond seven days. Latest GFS suggests the Feb 3-4 system will stay to the south of us, over the Gulf. And, beyond that a few clippers move through the deep eastern trough.

See the video for the maps and details!