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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1122 AM AST THU JAN 26 2006

...JANUARY 2006...MAY BE FAIRBANKS COLDEST JANUARY IN 35 YEARS...

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY 2006 IN FAIRBANKS WILL GO ON
RECORD AS ONE OF THE COLDEST MONTHS IN THE PAST 35 YEARS. THE
AVERAGE JANUARY TEMPERATURE FOR FAIRBANKS...SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1904...HAS BEEN 10.1 BELOW ZERO. BASED ON 102 YEARS OF DATA...THE AVERAGE
JANUARY HIGH IS 1.6 BELOW AND THE AVERAGE LOW 18.5 BELOW. JANUARY
IS..ON AVERAGE...THE COLDEST MONTH OF THE YEAR IN FAIRBANKS.

THE COLDEST MONTH OF RECORD FOR FAIRBANKS IS JANUARY 1906...36.4
BELOW. THE SECOND COLDEST IS DECEMBER 1917...33.3 BELOW. THE
THIRD COLDEST IS JANUARY 1971...31.7 BELOW.

SINCE 1971 THE COLDEST MONTH IS FEBRUARY 1979...25.3 BELOW. THE
SECOND COLDEST IS DECEMBER 1980...24.0 BELOW. THE THIRD
COLDEST IS FEBRUARY 1990...21.7 BELOW. THE FOURTH COLDEST
IS JANUARY 1989...21.2 BELOW. THE FIFTH COLDEST IS JANUARY
1973...18.2 BELOW.

FOR JANUARY 2006 THROUGH THE 25TH OF THE MONTH...THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 19.2 BELOW. THE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE MONTH CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 30 TO 50 BELOW.
BASED ON THIS FORECAST...JANUARY 2006 WILL BE AT LEAST THE FIFTH
COLDEST MONTH SINCE 1971.

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT JANUARY 2006 WILL DISPLACE FEBRUARY
1990 TO BECOME THE THIRD COLDEST MONTH SINCE 1971. THIS WOULD ALSO
MAKE IT THE COLDEST JANUARY IN 35 YEARS. TO MAKE THIS RECORD WOULD
REQUIRE AN AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE...FROM TODAY...THE 26TH...THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...OF ABOUT 32.2 BELOW. IF CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH GULF OF ALASKA LOW PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF
FAIRBANKS...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR THIS RECORD.

THE POSSIBILITY OF JANUARY 2006 BEING COLDER THAN DECEMBER 1980
SEEMS RATHER REMOTE. AN AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 44
BELOW FROM THE 26TH THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WOULD BE
REQUIRED.

THE LACK OF ANY MILD WEATHER RATHER THAN ANY EXTREMELY COLD
TEMPERATURES HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT MONTHS COLD
AVERAGE. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED SO FAR FOR JANUARY 2006...
AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT...HAS BEEN AT LEAST 46 BELOW ON THE
26TH...AND THE WARMEST 6 ABOVE ON THE 8TH.

THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE REPORTED SO FAR THIS WINTER IN ALASKA HAS
BEEN 60 BELOW...AT BOTH FORT YUKON AND CHANDALAR LAKE ON THE 26TH
OF THE MONTH. CHANDALAR LAKE HAS RECORDED 60 BELOW TWICE THIS MONTH.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR ALASKA IS 80 BELOW...SET AT
PROSPECT CREEK IN 1971 ON THE 23RD OF JANUARY.

THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE END OF THE MONTH...A LITTLE WARMING MAY OCCUR IF CLOUDS MAKE
IT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
DEGREE OF WARMING...IF ANY.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
CANCELLATION OF SCHEDULED AIR TRAFFIC IN AND OUT OF
FAIRBANKS...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL DENSE ICE FOG AT AIRPORTS MAY
RESTRICT FLIGHTS OF SMALLER AIRCRAFT MAINLY TO LOCATIONS IN RURAL
ALASKA. FOR THE LATEST FLIGHT STATUS...CONTINUE TO CHECK WITH YOUR
AIR CARRIER.

$$

DA JAN 06

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The GFS is coming around to a very interesting solution for our weather in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. But first...

Another freeze is likely tonight. Dewpoints are still in the teens; I think most folks will see 20s by daybreak tomorrow. We are watching a large cloud mass to the west; if those clouds move in here later tonight they could hold temperatures up, especially over West Alabama.

Those clouds will make for a partly sunny day tomorrow... the wave responsible for the echoes over Texas and Louisiana will fizzle and we still expect a dry day tomorrow, and a dry day on Saturday.

COMPLEX SYSTEM: The 12Z GFS is basically advertising a two part storm system now. The first part comes here with a batch of rain and storms late Satudday night through Sunday morning. Upper support now looks limited, and severe weather is not likely. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to one inch are a good bet with the first period of rain.

PART TWO: Another round of rain and storms is likely late Sunday night into Monday with a stronger upper air wave and a surface cold front. The dynamics will be strong, but once again the thermodynamics are somewhat marginal for severe weather. This should bring another 1/2 inch of rain for most communities.

A COLD CHANGE: There is some Arctic air behind Monday's front. Much colder air will roll in here Monday night into Tuesday. Parts of North Alabama might hold in the 30s all day Tuesday; for now we will forecast highs in the mid 40s here. Wrap around moisture could bring a few snow flurries to North Alabama late Monday night into Tuesday morning; the best chance would be over the northeast part of the state.

AN EVEN COLDER CHANGE: Once again, the GFS sure looks cold as we get into February. For the snow fans, check out the video and see the model output at 240 hours; that shows a nice snow storm for Alabama. But that is all voo-doo at this point; it is just a possibility in this kind of pattern.

A monster western Canada ridge builds in the February 8-11 time frame and will pull some really cold down down into the "lower 48". That is why we are paying so much attention to the temperatures now in Alaska and the western part of Canada.

Thanks to the kids at Bragg Middle School in Gardendale today... they were a great audience. They will be on the KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. I will be live down at the BJCC at the circus... I will fit in nicely with the clowns.

The next map discussion video will be up by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

That was the official low at Chandalar Lake Alaska today! A short list:

59 below zero at Chandalar Lake
58 below at Fort Yukon
51 below at Eagle

NORTHWEST CANADA
51 below zero at Mayo in the Yukon Territory

A FEW OTHER NOTES

* Not a drop of rain this month to date in Phoenix and Tuscon

* Only 1.4 inches of snow all winter at Flagstaff in the North Arizona high country. Most of that fell yesterday.

* January so far running an amazing 15 degrees above average at Alexandria, Minn., and about the same in the Twin Cities of Minneapolis-St. Paul.

Low temperatures across Alabama this morning depended greatly on the wind. It did go calm in some areas, but not until late. In other areas there was some wind all night.

We had forecast 27 for Birmingham Airport and in general across Central Alabama. We were close with a low of 29 at Birmingham. (It could still drop another degree between 7 amd 8 this morning) Lows so far this morning:

ALABAMA
23 at Fort Payne Airport and at Anderson (Lauderdale County)
25 at Gadsden Airport, Harvest and Madison
26 in Leeds and Hartselle
27 in Moulton
28 in Mentone and Helena
29 at Birmingham and Huntsville
30 at Little River Canyon and atop Mt. Cheaha
31 at Lillian (Baldwin County Coast)
33 at Anniston
36 in Bluff Park (one of the highest Birmingham area elevations)

ALASKA (AT 4AM ALASKA TIME--NOT THE FINAL LOW)
41 below zero at Deadhorse with a wind chill -60
51 below at Eagle
56 below at Fort Yukon
47 below at Fairbanks
51 below at Nenana
32 below out on King Salmon
10 below in Anchorage

CANADIAN YUKON TERRITORY
49 below at Mayo

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

A quick scan of temperatures across the state this morning show readings mostly in the 30 to 35 degree range. The wind did not go calm in most locations overnight, but we will have an hour or two to see the wind drop and temperatures down in the 20s.

We will enjoy another day of blue sky and sunshine today with afternoon temperatures in the 50s. Today's "normal" high/low is 54/32... we will be very close to that.

We begin to warm up a bit tomorrow, and we will be back in the mid to upper 60s over the weekend.

WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM: We will still highlight a healthy round of rain and storms on Sunday statewide. But, the GFS really doesn't amplify the upper trough until the system arrives around here, which will lessen the risk of severe storms on Sunday. I still think we see rain amounts of one to two inches, but with the less amplified trough and the usual concern about the lack of really unstable air, I think we can hold off on playing up any big severe weather threat for now.

The GFS (06Z run) moves the surface low from near Milwaukee to Cincinnati Sunday into Monday. This would keep clouds over the state much of the day Monday along with a change to colder weather; we might be in the 40s most of the day Monday if that solution is correct.

FROZEN ALASKA: I see Fort Yukon, Alaska is reporting 56 degrees below zero as I write this post. I have to wonder if some spots will get down below -60 up there again this morning. Fairbanks yesterday was no warmer that 35 below zero during the day. The cold is brutal up there, and watch for it to move sometime next week.

TODAY: The ole calendar is jam packed today (and really every day through May... I will be stopping by Bragg Middle School in Gardendale to share the science of meteorology, and tonight I will be the "ring master" at the open of the Ringling Brothers/Barnum and Bailey circus at the BJCC. I will do the weather live from the site at 5:00 and 6:00, but in between all of this I should have time to squeeze out an afternoon map discussion video, which will be on the server by 3:30...