Tornado Alley

Alan Gerard and John Gagan of the National weather Service Forecast Office in Jackson, Mississippi have corroborated with John Gordon of the National Weather Service in Louisville on some interesting research.   
 
When we think of tornado alley, we think of the area from Texas through Oklahoma into Kansas and Nebraska.  And without question, more tornadoes occur there than anywhere in the world.   While not questioning the existence of “tornado alley,” the intrepid trio of meteorologists have proven that there is a secondary concentration of tornado activity, and we live in the heart of it. 

Mssrs. Gerard, Gagan and Gordon don’t claim credit for the term “Dixie Alley.”  They credit it to Alan Pearson, who was the Director of the National Severe Storm Forecast Center.  He coined the term after the terrible February 1971 tornado outbreak in the Mississippi Delta.  A total of ten tornadoes killed 121 people across Mississippi and Louisiana that day.  Dixie Alley covers Alabama, most of Georgia, the western two thirds of Tennessee and all of Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas.
 
The researchers used data since 1998, when Doppler radar was fully deployed.  They came to the following conclusions:
 
1.  There are 1.5 times as many strong tornadoes (F3 or greater) in Dixie Alley as compared to the traditional Tornado Alley.  The total counts was 338 versus 206 during the time period they studied. So, while Tornado Alley had more tornadoes overall than Dixie Alley, the occurrence of strong to violent tornadoes is much greater in the South. 
 
2. Killer tornadoes are more prevalent in Dixie Alley than in Tornado Alley.  There were 66 versus 24.  A lot of factors go into that statistic.  First and foremost, the population density in Dixie Alley is greater than that of traditional Tornado Alley.  Additionally, many tornadoes in Dixie Alley are obscured by terrain or wrapped in rain.  This makes it harder to see them coming.  Also, in the incidence of strong and violent tornadoes across the Plains drops off dramatically after sunset, while in Dixie Alley, the numbers fall much more slowly.  So, many more strong tornadoes occur in the dark in the South.  This makes them even deadlier.
 
3. Dixie Alley actually suffers from more “outbreaks” of tornadoes.   During the seven year study periods, there were nine days with ten or more strong tornadoes across Dixie Alley, while there were five in Tornado Alley.  In addition, the tornado threat is less seasonal in Dixie Alley, with a consistent threat from January through May and a large peak in November.
 
So, the excellent study is very relevant to us here in Alabama, in the middle of Dixie Alley.  They stress that it is preliminary research. See their presentation at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/dixieAlley/img0.html.




A Good Start on 2006 Rainfall

Sunday's all-day rain in the Birmingham area brought the February total to 8.70 inches

This brought the 2006 total to 14.67 inches which is a healthy surplus of 5.52 inches.

If the faucet was suddenly cut off and we did not get another drop, we would still show a surplus for the year until March 26.

Montgomery received close to three inches Sunday bringing their total for the year to 9.66--a slight deficiency!

If you were to look up "rainy day" in Uncle Websters, it would surely say, "see February 25, 2006 in Alabama."

Taking a half-mile walk with Little Miss Molly this afternoon, I have never seen the visibility any sharper or clearer. The Old Crow Motel had a majestic look--standing out sharp and clear.

So goes life...


Sunshine Galore But Breezy and Cool

The Sunday map discussion video is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

When the rain had ended yesterday evening, my gauge had recorded 1.29 inches of precipitation bringing my February total to 5.58 inches. My monthly total is a bit lower than the Birmingham airport, but above the monthly normal for Birmingham by about an inch and a quarter.

A fairly tight pressure gradient today has prompted the Weather Service to issue a Lake Wind Advisory, so if your Sunday plans call for going out on the lake or river, be aware of the windy conditions and be careful. And if you plan to be outside today, have a jacket since that wind will make the cool temperatures feel even cooler as we expect to see highs only around 50 degrees this afternoon.

It will be a frosty morning Monday with temperatures expected to drop into the mid and upper 20s with good radiational cooling.

Rather benign weather pattern is expected for the coming week as surface high pressure settles over us and gradually inches eastward. The upper air pattern features a ridge over the Gulf with the main flow pattern nudged northward. With some moisture present Wednesday and Thursday we may see clouds and a small chance for showers, but the next really good chance for rain is not expected until Saturday and Sunday. Yup, the good ole weekend rainy cycle!

But our air mass moderates nicely so we expect temperatures to warm up nicely with afternoon highs pushing the 70-degree mark by mid-week.

In the longer range, the GFS is still taking the next system further east and north of Alabama around March 7th. But the GFS is also keeping a strong trough coming out of the Rockies with the possibility of severe weather around the 13th or 14th of March.

Don't forget the last Storm Alert Show will be this coming Tuesday in Northport. Hope to see you there.

Have a sunny Sunday!

-Brian-


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