I was surfing the weather forum on the ABC 33/40 web site last night, and found some interesting statistics from Jim Westland with the Birmingham National Weather Service office: It has been 1,792 days (counting yesterday) since Birmingham has hit 100 degrees. This is the third longest such streak on record for Birmingham. The longest stretch was 2,559 days that ended July 5 1977 (about one less year than Huntsville), and the second longest is 1,823 days, which ended August 24, 1943. If Birmingham fails to hit 100 degrees this year, we would surpass #2 the end of August. We would need to get to early September of 2007 to break the all-time record for the Magic city.

The bottom line is that we haven’t had to deal with really serious heat here in recent years, and we can all be thankful for that. The last day the mercury reached 100 degrees in Birmingham was August 29, 2000. The last really serious heat emergency in north and central Alabama was the long hot summer of 1980. In the month of July 1980 alone, there was an estimated 120 heat-related deaths along with the loss of more than 200,000 chickens and half the state's corn crop. The hottest day of the summer was July 17th, 1980, when over 80 percent of the state reached 100 degrees, and nearly one quarter of the state reached 105. The highest reading on that day was 108 degrees recorded in the cities of Bessemer, Aliceville, and Jasper.

Long range model output shows no significant chance for any triple digit heat through at least mid-August, and with good soil moisture staying in place across Alabama there is a pretty good chance our next chance of triple digit heat won’t come until the summer of 2006.

One is over the NE corner of Hale County in West Central Alabama, near Lake Payne. Very small and moving north very slowly.

A slightly larger and stronger storm was over North Choctaw County. Good bit of lightning in that one. It was also moving north slowly.

A small thunderstorm was over the Riverchase area near the Shelby-Jefferson County line at 6:30. It has been in progress since about 6. The ABC 33/40 Weather Office has received 0.22 of an inch of rain with thunder and lightning. Movement slowly north.

Quite a bit of thunder also heard at Helena, 6 air miles to the south, but no rain.

A tiny shower also along the Jefferson-Blount County line.

These should not last very much longer.

A nice shower is in progress now here at the ABC 33/40 studio location in Riverchase.... about one tenth of an inch so far, and the temperature has dropped to 80 degrees. Another sign the air aloft is getting cooler, and a good sign of rain potential in the days ahead as the surface front approaches. The end of the "heat wave" is beginning!

The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

The heat buster of a cold front is now lined up from near Chicago to Kansas City to Amarillo. A quick peek at observations this hour reveals 57 at Sheridian, WY, and Rapid City, SD. How about that for a breath of fresh air in late July.

Nope, that cool air won't reach us, but the front will get close enough to bring an increased risk of showers and storms over the latter half of the week, and knock high temperatures back down into the upper 80s by Thursday and Friday because of the limited amount of sunshine. A few strong storms might even migrate in here late tomorrow or tomorrow night.

I still do not believe the front pushes through here, it will hang up near the Alabama/Tennessee line which should mean more scattered showers and storms Friday through the weekend. Most of the rain should come during the afternoon and evening hours, and highs should stay in the 87 to 90 degree range.

The GFS keeps a general weakness aloft around here through much of next week, which means afternoon showers and storm, and highs holding somewhere in that 87 to 90 range. After looking at the long range output I have to believe the worst of the summer heat might be behind us. Sure, we have many, many hot days left before the cool winds of autumn arrive, but I don't see anything to get us over 95 here in Birmingham through mid-August. We have not had a temperature above 95 in Birmingham since September 2002!

OZONE: Just got word that the code orange ozone alert will be extended for one more day... tomorrow... for Jefferson and Shelby counties.

TROPICS: Franklin looks pretty ill on the satellite images today not far from Bermuda, and the thing will just hang around for the rest of the week in the same general area. An upper trough should push ole Frank out to sea at some point this weekend or early next week. Lots of action in the eastern Atlantic, two very impressive waves are seen and it sure looks like this will be an active Cape Verde season. We just might have Harvey on our hands soon, and possibly Irene. I hope we don't run out of names this year.

SHUTTLE: Before I spoke to a lunch meeting out in Center Point today, I did get the chance to watch the Discovery take off on high definition TV. Absolutely amazing. Wish the TV pictures would have been like that for the Mercury/Gemini/Apollo launches back in the 60s and early 70s!

SAD: Saw this PNS from the Mobile NWS office today... thought I would share it with you:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

HENRY TYSON, LONGTIME COOPERATIVE OBSERVER FOR BUTLER ALABAMA PASSED
AWAY SUDDENLY ON SATURDAY, JULY 23, 2005. HENRY WORKED AT WPRN
RADIO STATION IN CHOCTAW COUNTY FOR 41 YEARS. HENRY WAS KNOWN AS
THE LOCAL WEATHER PERSON FOR CHOCTAW COUNTY FOR MOST OF THOSE 41
YEARS. HE HAD TAUGHT HIMSELF WEATHER AND KNEW THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
CHOCTAW COUNTY AS WELL AS MANY DEGREED METEOROLOGISTS. WHEN HENRY
SAID IT WAS GOING TO BE HOT, IT WOULD BE HOT. WHEN HE SAID IT WOULD
BE COLD, IT WAS COLD. WHEN HE SAID IT WAS GOING TO SNOW....

HENRY WOULD CALL THE LOCAL MOBILE WEATHER OFFICE (BEFORE THAT THE
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI OFFICE) A COUPLE OF TIMES A WEEK AND TALK ABOUT
THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE LOCAL METEOROLOGIST. HE
WOULD THEN GO ON THE AIR AND LET THE PEOPLE IN CHOCTAW COUNTY KNOW
WHAT TO EXPECT WITH THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HE WOULD
ALSO COME OUT DURING SEVERE WEATHER AND OPEN THE RADIO STATION TO
LET THE PEOPLE IN THE COUNTY KNOW ABOUT ANY WARNINGS THAT WERE IN
EFFECT AND TO RELAY ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE MOBILE WEATHER
SERVICE.

HENRY'S DRY WIT AND DEDICATION TO GIVING THE CITIZENS OF CHOCTAW
COUNTY THE MOST ACCURATE WEATHER INFORMATION WILL BE MISSED.

The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Man am I ready for October. The golden days of fall. Frosty mornings. Blue, cobalt sky. Dewpoints in the 30s!

The Birmingham observation is 76/74 (temp/dewpoint) as I write this at 5:45 am. Another day of hot, humid weather is ahead; I am forecasting 93 for Birmingham today, but those high dewpoints will make the low 90s feel really uncomfortable. A few isolated storms might show up this afternoon; we had some around yesterday as far north as Perry and Autauga counties.

Afternoon storms should become more numerous tomorrow, and some strong storms might slip in here tomorrow night in advance of the plains cold front is bringing in the cool, Canadian air into the northern U.S. Still looks like our best chance of showers and storms, in terms of coverage, will come on Thursday as the surface boundary eases into extreme north Alabama. Highs will drop into the upper 80s on Thursday due to cloudy periods and showers.

Friday's forecast is tricky; it could be the best chance of showers and storms will shift a bit south and east of Birmingham. But, getting a dryline/front through here in late July is pretty rare, so we will hang on to the chance of showers and storms for now.

The front fizzles out over the weekend; and a general weakness in the ridge aloft should mean afternoon and evening showers and storms around here on Saturday and Sunday. That weakness sticks around well into next week, so we will have a summer mix of sun and storms most of next week with temperatures around normal levels for early August. I still think there is a good chance the hottest weather of 2005 is now behind us.

OZONE: A code orange ozone alert continues for Jefferson and Shelby counties today; take it easy and stay inside if you have heath issues. Try to avoid driving as much as possible.

SHUTTLE LAUNCH: Weather looks good for this morning's 9:39 am CDT launch of the Discovery. I am looking forward to watching this one on HDTV; it will be on HDNET. In fact, their coverage has already started.

TROPICS: Franklin just hanging around... it should finally be pushed out to sea by the coming weekend. Still watching the SAL (Sahara Air Layer) over the Atlantic... lots of dust and a school of thought it will inhibit tropical development on a temporary basis. And, the parade of waves continues coming off the African coast. Still looks like a busy August and September, the Cape Verde season.

Gonna get the Birmingham News out on the driveway in a few minutes and see what their weather vendor is forecasting for today. Yesterday, their forecast high was 100, but the high in Birmingham was only 94. Guess I shouldn't point fingers too much here since I have had my own share of six degree busts over the years (but most of those were during the cold weather season involving extreme weather changes, not during the summer.....

.....At 3 o'clock this morning it was 39 degrees and visibility 1/4 mile in heavy snow on Monarch Pass in Central Colorado. Elevation, of course, plays a big part in Colorado weather. Denver has recently suffered through several days in a row with 100+ heat including 105 that tied their all-time record.

.....During this heat wave, a high of 114 was reached in Extreme NE Colorado. This is equal to the hottest ever recorded in the entire state of Colorado with the previous 114 coming in the famous dust bowl years of the 1930s. This morning, it is in the upper 50s in that area.

.....A nice chilly 38 in Yellowstone National Park at 3 am.

.....Chamberlain, South Dakota had 110 degrees Sunday afternoon with a scorching 30 mph SW wind. Early this morning, it was 58 with a brisk north wind.

Nothing like the winds of change...