Here is the latest information on Hurricane Katrina as of 10 p.m. CDT...

LOCATION...Latitude 24.6 North...Longitude 83.6 West...or 460 miles SE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.
MOVEMENT...WSW 8 mph
MAX WINDS...105 mph...Category Two on the Saffir Simpson Scale
CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 mb...28.50 inches

Lots of questions and not many answers as we look at the late evening data on Hurricane Katrina. The first question is when will the west southwestward motion stop. That appears to be happening now. Katrina should continue westward and gradually turn more to the northwest and then eventually north. When that will occur is the $64 billion question (inflation).

There is a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf Coast, and it is currently steering the storm westward. A trough of low pressure over the central part of the country is forecast to weaken the ridge. If that happens, the storm will make the expected northward turn earlier. If the ridge holds, the recurve will be slower to occur and landfall will occur further west, perhaps as far west as western Louisiana. Some of the numerical models were hinting that the storm might even go toward South Texas or Mexico late tonight. One thing to remember is that a really strong hurricane (which Katrina seems destined to be) can control its own environment. The hurricane exhausts lots of hot air out to its north, and this can help to maintain the strength of a ridge of high pressure in such a situation.

My gut feeling is that it will make the expected northward turn and make landfall somewhere between Southeast Louisiana and the Pensacola area. The late evening official National Hurricane Center forecast carries the storm to a landfall point near Biloxi on Monday. This is just east of model guidance that is in good agreement tonight. This could be disastrous for the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines. Thoughts of Hurricane Camille come to mind with an August storm looming in the Gulf. The City of New Orleans could be a worst case scenario. There is talk tonight that the National Guard will be mobilized tomorrow in Louisiana.

Just how strong will she get? It’s really hard to say. The only factor limiting development so far has been dry air surrounding the storm. Katrina should overcome this as she traverses some very warm waters that are part of the Gulf Loop Current. The official forecast calls for an intensity of 135 mph. Some of the other models, including the FSU Superensemble say it could be dramatically stronger, like 150-155 mph. Needless to say, everyone along the Gulf Coast will be keeping an eye out to sea on ths Saturday.

We will be watching also.

The 9:00 National Hurricane Center conference call has ended...

They will adjust the track slightly to the west again... showing landfall around Biloxi.

The guys at HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) in Washington prefer a track even more to the west.

00Z models are coming in, and some of them have shifted to the west a bit.

NAM is coming in, and it keeps Katrina moving southwest through at least 48 hours... toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico!

There is still a large degree of uncertainty in this forecast.

If we do have a Gulf coast landfall (U.S. Gulf coast), Alabama will be on the wild east side. Even if it moves into Louisiana, we will have to watch for isolated tornadoes.

I will be wrapping up a very long day after our 10:00 news on ABC 33/40... our team of meteorologists have been and will stay on an instant message conference through the duration of Katrina. Let me say hats off to J.B. Elliott and Jason Simpson who nailed this more westward track long before I let go of the idea of a landfall around Panama City. I have always had a problem of being too stubborn and lot letting go of old ideas soon enough with tropical systems.

I think a decent amount of sleep is in order for me... but I will be up relatively early tomorrow and will post a lengthy discussion of Saturday morning thoughts.

I don't know of anyone who is comfortable with forecasting this system right now. But, we all have concern of the potential for it to become a very dangerous hurricane in the Gulf during the next 48 hours. Stay tuned.

FYI... new package coming in:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Here is the latest information on Hurricane Katrina as of 7 p.m. CDT...

LOCATION...Latitude 24.7 North...Longitude 84.3 West...or 100 miles W of Key West. The eye of Hurricane Katrina is still clearly visible from the Key West NWS Doppler radar.
MOVEMENT...WSW 8 mph
MAX WINDS...100 mph...Category Two on the Saffir Simpson Scale
CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 mb...28.50 inches

WEATHER IN THE KEYS...A tropical storm warning remains in effect south of Key Largo to Key West an d the Dry Tortugas. Some reports at 6 p.m. CDT tonight...
MARATHON....LGT RAIN...Temp 79...DP 73...Wind S29G38...Pressure 29.71R
KEY WEST INTL...RAIN...Temp 79...DP 76...Wind S45G54...Pressure 29.59R FOG
DRY TORTUGAS...Wind S56G65...Pressure 29.10 (Dry Tortugas is 20 miles west of Key West)

LATEST RECON REPORT...The Air Force reconnaissance plane that was tracking Katrina during the day ended its mission shortly after 4 pm today. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is due to depart Keesler AFB in Biloxi, Mississippi at 10 p.m. tonight. Five flights are planned for Saturday. The NOAA Gulfstream jet will fly missions on Sunday, sampling the upper atmosphere around the Gulf of Mexico and providing a plethora of data for the computer models.

SATELLITE IMAGERY indicates clouds tops decreasing in temperature near the center of the hurricane, indicating that convection is increasing. This would indicate that intensification is about to occur. Dry air surrounding the storm is the only obstacle to intensification at the present time. Katrina will travel over some very warm water in the Central Gulf by early Sunday and a period of rapid intensification is expected to occur. This should allow the hurricane to become a category four storm before landfall. Intensification is the least understood of hurricane processes, but it is a certainty that Katrina will be a major hurricane when it reaches shore.

FUTURE TRACK: The future track of Katrina is far known at this time. The official NHC track carries it to just west of the Alabama/Mississippi border Monday afternoon. This would be a very bad scenario for Mobile, Dauphin Island and the Baldwin County coastline. It would be very similar to the track taken by Hurricane Frederic in Sepetmber 1979. Katrina could be much stronger than Frederic. The computer models came into much better agreement on the future track this afternoon. The NHC is keeping their forecast track on the eastern side of the model output. Of course, the "thin black line" of the official forecast track will change many times over the next 72 hours and the "cone of error" covers a huge area of the Gulf Coast from west of Lafayette, Louisiana to Apalachicola, Florida.

Hurricane watches will likely be issued along the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday. Inland weather watches and warnings will be issued later on Saturday.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...All Alabamians, as well as all interests along the Gulf Coast must pay close attention to the latest information on extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina. If the current forecast track materializes, Katrina will bring horrible weather conditions to much of Alabama starting Sunday night and lasting through the day Monday into Tuesday morning. In Central Alabama, we will experience winds gusting to hurricane force or above along with torrential, flooding rains starting early on Monday.

Best we can do at this point is roll with the NHC forecast track, which puts Katrina inland very close to the Alabama/Mississippi state line at midday Monday.

Katrina then moves to a point near Birmingham early Tuesday morning, and then on to Chattanooga Tuesday afternoon.

Under the assumption that Katrina ramps up to a category four storm, here is the impact on Alabama:

Damage on the Alabama Gulf coast (Dauphin Island, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach) similar to Ivan in September 2004... except in this case the threat to Mobile county and city of Mobile will be much greater. Storm surge flooding from Mobile Bay could be very severe.

Significant tree and power line damage as far north as Birmingham with widespread and lengthy power outages. For Birmingham/Tuscaloosa/Anniston/Gadsden, worst weather will come from 6:00 p.m. Monday through 6:00 a.m. Tuesday.

All of this is assuming NHC track is correct.

Unfortunately, this track is about the worst possible scenario for Mobile and Birmingham.

Changes are possible, and likely.

I can't remember the last time NHC adjusted a track 200 to 300 miles from one package to another, but I agree this is the course of least regret.

Due to tremendous work load due to track change I will not be able to crank out a video update afternoon...

As we have mentioned in recent days, there is almost always one big surprise in every tropical system. Looks like we have our surprise.

Are there any more coming? Probably. The 18Z run of the NAM is taking Katrina toward Mexico.... but needless to say that is quite an outlier

See the blend of model output here:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.p
ng

From conference call...

NHC will be shifting the forecast track west to near Biloxi on the 4:00 package. Major changes needed to forecast package and inland impact. Coming up shortly...

The Friday afternoon map discussion will be delayed until about 4:00 p.m...

MAJOR CHANGE IN KATRINA TRACK FORECAST POSSIBLE

All of us are going to have to shift the track of Katrina westward. Considerably. NHC package will be out shortly... will post details as soon as we get them.

After several days of reporting the best chance of landfall somewhere from Panama City to Cedar Key, we have no choice but to move the projected track to the west. Possibly as much as 300 miles.

Our friends on the Alabama Gulf coast will have to breathe heavier again, and everyone up this way will need to get ready for potential problems. I am not a big "flip-flop" guy, and I like to hold on to my ideas as long as possible, but there is simply too much evidence to suggest we might have a problem well west of where we initially identifed the greatest chance of landfall.

The NAM is the only model with a landfall now east of Panama City. The GFS has shifted all the way west to New Orleans... along with the BAM output and the GFDL. The Florida State MM5 shows landfall now at Pensacola, and the Canadian GEM also shows Pensacola.

This thing could grow into a monster this weekend... even stronger than Ivan, Opal, and Frederic.

Major, intense hurricanes can actually create their own steering current, and troughs don't have as much of an impact. And, there is not much skill in forecasting the landfall point of a category four or five hurricane.

Everyone from New Orleans to Gulf Shores to Panama City will need to begin readiness action NOW.

That is a huge stretch, but with the potential danger involved with this system it is the course of least regret.

Also, with the westward shift some of those energy traders could get their wish; which is something nobody should want. A major disruption of oil drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico, which could lead to higher oil prices. But, that is our least concern now.

With the westward shift, there is a much greater chance a larger part of Alabama will be dealing with lots of wind and rain. I will write a specific impact statement for north Alabama shortly...

With the weekend here, we need to get out this message this afternoon. More shortly..

Miss Katrina continues to plow westward into very warm and friendly waters of the SE Gulf this afternoon. Still get a good picture of her on radar and she still looks well organized. She is already a Category 2. Indications are that before she makes landfall she will be a major hurricane, possibly a Category 3 or even a 4.

Possibly could compare her to Opal in early October 1995. Opal exploded into a very scary hurricane in the Central Gulf, but at the last minute she weakened before landfall. Part of that was due to cooler sea surface temperatures within 100 miles of the Alabama-NW Florida coast. Don't have those this time. The water is very warm, 88 to 90.

Eventual landfall number two is expected somewhere on the NW Florida coast early Monday. Most favored area seems to be around Panama City, but it could be west of there. Everything bears watching.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL REPORTS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
7.58 inches at Marathon Airport
8.23 at Curry Hammock State Park
4.18 at Miami International Airport
7.71 at West Kendall/Tamiami Airport
5.30 at Chekika Everglades

EARLY AFTERNOON SPOT REPORTS
Ft. Myers...cloudy, wind SE, gusts 39
Naples...cloudy, east 23, gusts 36
Miami Beach...SE 30, gusts 36
Key West...south 54, gusts 68 (visibility one-half mile in snow)

DON'T YOU LOVE COMPUTERS?
The automated observation from Key West Airport at 1:00 o'clock this afternoon indicated 75 degrees with south winds averaging 54 mph with gusts to 68 and visibility one-half mile in snow.

Oh, for the good old days when real live humans took the weather observations.

Looking at the new 12Z model output..

The new run of the NAM moves Katrina into Florida east of Apalachicola early Monday morning... and is an outlier to the east.

The latest run I have of the Florida State MM5 (06Z run) has landfall near Apalachicola.

The GFDL right on NHC track... into the vicinity of Panama City.

The Canadian GEM model is also right on the NHC track... near Panama City.

BAM models have shifted a bit west... toward Pensacola.

The NOGAPS model is now an outlier to the west... it takes Katrina to Louisiana. We totally discount that solution.

NHC didn't change their track much at all... which I think is the best course of action. Blend these models and you come up with a point near Panama City.

Sustained winds now 100 mph... this thing is going to be a major hurricane at the time of the Gulf landfall. I fear NHC wind guidance might be too conservative.

Headed over to St. Clair county for a midday speech... be back in the office for the long afternoon discussion and video update by 3:30.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NOW INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

The above note from the National Hurricane Center. It superceeds the information below...but scan down because there is still some valid information in earlier posts.

She is growing stronger as she moves slowly west into the very warm waters of the SE Gulf of Mexico.
At 10 am, CDT, here are the main facts:

POSITION:
Latitude 25.1N, Longitude 82.2W, 45 miles NW of Key West, 75 miles SSW of Naples

MOVEMENT: West at 7 mph. This should continue for about the next 24 hours.

WINDS: Sustained 80 mph with gusts to 100. She is now a Category one, should be a Category Two by Saturday

PRESSURE: Dropping rather rapidly. Now down to 971 millibars or 28.67 inches.

TRACK FORECAST
No major changes but possibly a slight shift to the west on the NW Florida Coast at time of landfall which should be Monday morning. Landfall estimate is near Panama City but latest forecast seems to shift it a best west of there. Landfall is still three days away. Probably see some more changes/surprises. After landfall, the track forecast curves across the SE corner of Alabama to east of Atlanta, across the NW tip of South Carolina and into the West North Carolina Mountains by Tuesday morning (That is bad news) then along the Virginia-West Virgina border to Central Pennsylvania Wednesday morning.

OTHER INFORMATION
Still a risk of some spinoff tornadoes over South Florida today. The city of Marathon has requested that people in that city stay in their homes today, There are numerous trees and some powerlines down.

CATEGORY THREE
There are growing indications that Katrina may grow into a major hurricane before her second landfall. She may reach Category Threer and Category Four is not out of the question. Not a specific forecast at this time but just a note of caution.

As the event unfolds, we will discuss more and more how the Gulf Coast will be affected and any part of Alabama. As it stands now, mainly SE and East Central Alabama will have adverse effects,

(Scan down for a lot more information)