TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO PASSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...
WILL ENTER GULF ON TUESDAY...POSES MAJOR THREAT TO GULF COAST...
FAST FACTS...10 PM ADVISORY
Located...16.8N 72.7W
Movement...WNW 13
Max winds...55 mph
Central pressure...997 mb...29.43 inches
SATELLITE LOOK
Convection is firing late tonight. I think this will signal a burst of overnight strengthening.
FORECAST TRACK
It is hard to say at this time, but there are increasing indications that the ridge across the northern Gulf will weaken, allowing a northward shifts in the storm’s track. By Thursday afternoon or evening, the hurricane will be about 150 miles south of the Florida Panhandle. That would indicate a landfall on the Florida Panhandle. But the cone of uncertainty is huge, from Lafayette, Louisiana to the entire west coast of Florida. With weak steering currents over the Gulf, the hurricane could lose its way for a while, but probably not as long as the GFS thinks...
MODEL COMPS
The 0z run of the NAM has the storm in the southern Gulf on Wednesday morning, south of Lafayette, Louisiana. The GFS 0z run holds it stationary in Gulf south of Pensacola through next Monday, 8 days from now...surely that solution can be discounted. The 18z GFDL carries Ernesto to a point 150 miles south of Pensacola Thursday evening with an intensity of 948mb and the probability that it will still be strengthening...looks like a strong category three or category four hurricane. The latest set of track overlain on a map indicates a consensus that the strack will be between New Orleans and the Florida Big Bend.
INTENSITY FORECAST
The upper low causing the shear is moving west and shear is lessening over the storm. Ernesto should become a hurricane later on Sunday. A high pressure system is forecast to form over Ernesto. This will allow strengthening to begin in earnest (no pun intended) as we head through time. The only inhibiting factor will be the mountains of Cuba. As it moves into the Gulf, there appears to be nothing to stop it from intensifying and Ernesto should become a major hurricane.
AFFECT ON ALABAMA
It is too early to tell just what effect Ernesto will have on Alabama. For now, we will call for incrasing breezes on Wednesday with a wet, stormy and windy day on Thursday, particularly over eastern and southeastern Alabama.
LABOR DAY AT THE BEACH
Anyone planning travel to the beaches of Alabama or Northwest Florida must monitor the progress of Ernesto. But we stress that we are way early in the process and cnnot tell exactly what is gong to happen. Don't cancel your plans until we understand the future track. All of this hype is probably causing lots of unnecessary cancellations already. Let's wait and see what transpires over the next few days.
RECON PLAN...another plane should be enroute to the storm shortly. Four WC-130 missions on Sunday...then several missions on Monday, including the GIV jet aircraft that will sample the upper air environment around Ernest. along with a low level synoptic WC-130 mission and a P3 research mission.
I will be back with early reports in the morning around 530 a.m. Have a great night...
- Bill
Late Evening Look at Ernesto
August 26, 2006, 9:36 pm
by Bill Murray
in Tropical Weather
Waterspout!
August 26, 2006, 4:39 pm
These images were taken at Fort Walton Beach, Florida yesterday by Michael Tortorci. He reports the waterspout was only a few thousand feet off shore...
by James Spann
in Pictures
Alabama Weather Update 4:10 p.m. (plus look at Ernesto)
August 26, 2006, 3:13 pm
Here is a 4 o'clock update of Alabama's weather...
Shower activity is nearly non-existent across the North Alabama this afternoon. A few small showers were trying to bubble up over Cullman County and over Colbert and Lauderdale Counties.
A few showers were evident on radar extending from Pickens through Tuscaloosa, Bibb, Clanton and Shelby Coutnies over to Coosa and Talladega Counties. Some of them were heavy. The Shelby County Airport had heavy rain at 4 p.m.
They were the northern vanguard of a an area of more numerous showers and storms over South and South Central Alabama. Even there, the percentage of coverage was relatively small.
Regional radar show scattered storms over much of Mississippi and western Tennessee.
All the activity this afternoon was moving to the northwest.
Skies were generall partly cloudy few the best buildups near the showers over Central Alabama. SKies were nearly clear over a portion of Northwest Alabama, including Winston, Lawrence and Marion Counties.
Temperatures ranged from 75 at the Shelby County Airport, where the heavy rain was falling to 94 at Muscle Shoals and Decatur. It was 91 at the Birmingham Airport.
The 4 p.m. advisory is in on Ernesto. It is a little stronger (60 mph) and a little ENE of previous advisory. The storm is still be sheared somehwat, but is still expected to come under the influence of an upper level high pressure system which would allow for strengthening.
Hurricane watches are extended to Cuba. The new forecast track is in line with James's thinking below and is shifted a little further east. The 2 p.m. Thursday position is now about 130 miles south of Pensacola. But the cone of uncertainty extends from west of Lafayette, LA to all along the West Coast of Florida. The eventual over the Gulf is now 120 mph and forecasters caution it could be stronger than that. Intensity forecasts are the weakest link in the forecasting chain today.
Read down for the latest on Ernesto. James has an excellent piece based on some of the morning model runs.
Shower activity is nearly non-existent across the North Alabama this afternoon. A few small showers were trying to bubble up over Cullman County and over Colbert and Lauderdale Counties.
A few showers were evident on radar extending from Pickens through Tuscaloosa, Bibb, Clanton and Shelby Coutnies over to Coosa and Talladega Counties. Some of them were heavy. The Shelby County Airport had heavy rain at 4 p.m.
They were the northern vanguard of a an area of more numerous showers and storms over South and South Central Alabama. Even there, the percentage of coverage was relatively small.
Regional radar show scattered storms over much of Mississippi and western Tennessee.
All the activity this afternoon was moving to the northwest.
Skies were generall partly cloudy few the best buildups near the showers over Central Alabama. SKies were nearly clear over a portion of Northwest Alabama, including Winston, Lawrence and Marion Counties.
Temperatures ranged from 75 at the Shelby County Airport, where the heavy rain was falling to 94 at Muscle Shoals and Decatur. It was 91 at the Birmingham Airport.
The 4 p.m. advisory is in on Ernesto. It is a little stronger (60 mph) and a little ENE of previous advisory. The storm is still be sheared somehwat, but is still expected to come under the influence of an upper level high pressure system which would allow for strengthening.
Hurricane watches are extended to Cuba. The new forecast track is in line with James's thinking below and is shifted a little further east. The 2 p.m. Thursday position is now about 130 miles south of Pensacola. But the cone of uncertainty extends from west of Lafayette, LA to all along the West Coast of Florida. The eventual over the Gulf is now 120 mph and forecasters caution it could be stronger than that. Intensity forecasts are the weakest link in the forecasting chain today.
Read down for the latest on Ernesto. James has an excellent piece based on some of the morning model runs.
by Bill Murray
in General Thoughts
Afternoon Tropical Update
August 26, 2006, 2:26 pm
A few notes on the 12Z model runs...
A majority of the models are really trending toward the idea of a weakness in the ridge north of Ernesto, and a turn to the north, and then northeast over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Blend all of the models together and you have the best landfall possibility from Pensacola to Cedar Key. If this happens to be correct, much of Alabama would be on the dry side of the circulation. This would also put New Orleans out of the danger zone.
You can see model output over on the tropical page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
But, you live by the models and die by the models. We have to be very careful in the run to run changes in model output; I am not sure the global models have a really good grasp on Ernesto right now. Everyone from Brownsville, Texas to Tampa will have to watch this closely...
Another idea is the possibility of Ernesto just sitting in the central Gulf for several days with little motion due to the lack of steering currents. if this happens, the system will probably slowly weaken due to upwelling; those kind of storms usually have flooding as the biggest threat.
We will keep you advised...
A majority of the models are really trending toward the idea of a weakness in the ridge north of Ernesto, and a turn to the north, and then northeast over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Blend all of the models together and you have the best landfall possibility from Pensacola to Cedar Key. If this happens to be correct, much of Alabama would be on the dry side of the circulation. This would also put New Orleans out of the danger zone.
You can see model output over on the tropical page:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb
But, you live by the models and die by the models. We have to be very careful in the run to run changes in model output; I am not sure the global models have a really good grasp on Ernesto right now. Everyone from Brownsville, Texas to Tampa will have to watch this closely...
Another idea is the possibility of Ernesto just sitting in the central Gulf for several days with little motion due to the lack of steering currents. if this happens, the system will probably slowly weaken due to upwelling; those kind of storms usually have flooding as the biggest threat.
We will keep you advised...
by James Spann
in Tropical Weather
One Year Ago Today - Remembering Katrina
August 26, 2006, 1:05 pm
KATRINA – Day Four.
Early on Fiday morning, August 26, 2005, Tropical Storm Katrina was completing her short traversal of the southern end of the Florida Peninsula and emrging over the Gulf of Mexico. The storm briefly weakened from hurricane strength to tropical storm intensity for just a few hours. Moving just south of due west, Katrina emerged into the Gulf of Mexico about 3 a.m. EDT.
Within four hours, the storm had regained hurricane strength and entered a period of rapid deepening. The morning forecast package indicated that the hurrcaine would turn northwest and then north, making a second landfall near Panama City, Florida in about 72 hours. A trough of low pressure over the Plains states was expected to move southeastward, eroding the ridge of high pressure over the northern Gulf Coast that was steering the storm on a westerly course. The resulting weakness was expected to allow the hurricane to turn to the north.
Through the day, the hurricane’s central pressure dropped from 987 millibars to 965 millibars by late afternoon and top winds increased to 100 mph. The late afternoon forecast package shifted the official track 150 miles to the west, with a projected landfall just west of Mobile, Alabama. Forecasters cautioned that the track was still very uncertain, and that the models were actually beginning to agree on an even more westerly landfall in southeastern Louisiana. All of the guidance was predicting that Katrina would become a major hurricane before landfall, with the official forecast calling for Katrina to intensify into a Category Four hurricane.
People along the Gulf Coast fell into a nervous sleep that Friday night, much as they will do ove rthe next few days.
Early on Fiday morning, August 26, 2005, Tropical Storm Katrina was completing her short traversal of the southern end of the Florida Peninsula and emrging over the Gulf of Mexico. The storm briefly weakened from hurricane strength to tropical storm intensity for just a few hours. Moving just south of due west, Katrina emerged into the Gulf of Mexico about 3 a.m. EDT.
Within four hours, the storm had regained hurricane strength and entered a period of rapid deepening. The morning forecast package indicated that the hurrcaine would turn northwest and then north, making a second landfall near Panama City, Florida in about 72 hours. A trough of low pressure over the Plains states was expected to move southeastward, eroding the ridge of high pressure over the northern Gulf Coast that was steering the storm on a westerly course. The resulting weakness was expected to allow the hurricane to turn to the north.
Through the day, the hurricane’s central pressure dropped from 987 millibars to 965 millibars by late afternoon and top winds increased to 100 mph. The late afternoon forecast package shifted the official track 150 miles to the west, with a projected landfall just west of Mobile, Alabama. Forecasters cautioned that the track was still very uncertain, and that the models were actually beginning to agree on an even more westerly landfall in southeastern Louisiana. All of the guidance was predicting that Katrina would become a major hurricane before landfall, with the official forecast calling for Katrina to intensify into a Category Four hurricane.
People along the Gulf Coast fell into a nervous sleep that Friday night, much as they will do ove rthe next few days.
by Bill Murray
in Weather History
Late Morning Look at Latest on Ernesto
August 26, 2006, 9:31 amLots of discussion this morning on the future of Ernesto. Read down to get the latest thoughts from James and Brian Peters. I don't know about you, but this graphic makes me sick at my stomach...
As you can see, the "area of uncertainty" which indicates the widening cone of locations the center of the storm migh be over the next 120 hours is very, very wide.
But it is clear that we have the potential for another major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico again. The forecast track has been moved northward and slowed a bit.
The official forecast calls for a 115 mph hurricane in the Gulf, but there are no obstacles to it getting much stronger than that. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm.
All of this add up to a very nervous week ahead for interests around the Gulf.
Jamaica now has a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch. A Hurricane Watch has now been issued for the Cayman Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of Haiti.
I am about to depart Denver International Airport on a direct flight home and will have the updated forcast package around 2:15.
by Bill Murray
in Tropical Weather
Just in Case You Forgot
August 26, 2006, 9:07 am
About Tropical Storm Debby...
She has been stripped of her title. No longer a tropical storm.
Demoted to a tropical depression.
She will continue to struggle way out in the Atlantic as she shifts toward the NW and over colder waters. A tropical system likes cold water about as much as a kid loves castor oil.
(Scan down for comprehensive Ernesto information in posts by Brian, Bill and James)
She has been stripped of her title. No longer a tropical storm.
Demoted to a tropical depression.
She will continue to struggle way out in the Atlantic as she shifts toward the NW and over colder waters. A tropical system likes cold water about as much as a kid loves castor oil.
(Scan down for comprehensive Ernesto information in posts by Brian, Bill and James)
by J.B. Elliott
in Tropical Weather
Saturday Morning Thoughts On Ernesto
August 26, 2006, 8:08 am
Scroll down for the posts from Brian Peters and Bill Murray... some great information. This is a short post with some Saturday morning thoughts on Ernesto. I will be at a fourth grader leadership conference today at my church (Hunter Street)... but wanted to share a few thoughts...
*I have great fear of the media hype and frenzy over Ernesto. As Bill points out, every network and many local stations (including ABC 33/40) will be live in New Orleans and the Mississippi coast this week because of the one year anniversary of Katrina. The amount of bad meteorological information coming from many of these outlets is very scary. My suggestion this week is to avoid the hyperbole and stick with credible weather sources.
*Nobody, and I mean nobody, knows right now where Ernesto will make landfall right now, and how strong the system will be at the time of landfall. What we like to do here is share thoughts and considerations based on science using observed weather, model output, climatology, and experience. But at this early phase of the game it is speculation.
*The amount of traffic on this blog during big tropical systems is staggering; we know that in addition to individuals, we have many other interests reading this; major industries, government officials, energy traders, etc. We are thankful for the eyeballs... but we will simply tell it like we see it. We won't skew our opinion to make any certain group happy. You wouldn't believe the nasty e-mails I received last year from some traders!
*I am really amazed at how well the system has done in the last 24 hours considering the negative environment. Sure looks like we will indeed have a major hurricane in the Gulf next week. As you probably know, there is considerable model spread, and as Brian says everyone from Brownsville to Tampa will have to be on their toes. Skill in forecasting a point of landfall will begin to increase on Monday. There are really two camps in model output... one group headed toward the upper Texas/western Louisiana coast (ridge holds to the north of the system), and another group with a big weakness in the ridge, turning the system north and even northeast with a landfall anywhere from Mobile to Cedar Key.
*I will end this this saying, which we all need to remember. When it comes to tropical systems, expect the unexpected. I have seen many a hurricane bring the most brilliant meteorologist to their knees.
The blog is our main way to communicate ideas to you, so keep checking in with us often. The video discussions are anothr excellent way to get a good look at the meteorology behind the storm; you can always see them here:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
There are both Windows Media and Quicktime versions.
Have a great Saturday... Bill Murray and J.B. will have updates on Ernesto today... both of those guys are brilliant writers and have a real passion for getting good information to you, and I am sure thankful they are on our team!
*I have great fear of the media hype and frenzy over Ernesto. As Bill points out, every network and many local stations (including ABC 33/40) will be live in New Orleans and the Mississippi coast this week because of the one year anniversary of Katrina. The amount of bad meteorological information coming from many of these outlets is very scary. My suggestion this week is to avoid the hyperbole and stick with credible weather sources.
*Nobody, and I mean nobody, knows right now where Ernesto will make landfall right now, and how strong the system will be at the time of landfall. What we like to do here is share thoughts and considerations based on science using observed weather, model output, climatology, and experience. But at this early phase of the game it is speculation.
*The amount of traffic on this blog during big tropical systems is staggering; we know that in addition to individuals, we have many other interests reading this; major industries, government officials, energy traders, etc. We are thankful for the eyeballs... but we will simply tell it like we see it. We won't skew our opinion to make any certain group happy. You wouldn't believe the nasty e-mails I received last year from some traders!
*I am really amazed at how well the system has done in the last 24 hours considering the negative environment. Sure looks like we will indeed have a major hurricane in the Gulf next week. As you probably know, there is considerable model spread, and as Brian says everyone from Brownsville to Tampa will have to be on their toes. Skill in forecasting a point of landfall will begin to increase on Monday. There are really two camps in model output... one group headed toward the upper Texas/western Louisiana coast (ridge holds to the north of the system), and another group with a big weakness in the ridge, turning the system north and even northeast with a landfall anywhere from Mobile to Cedar Key.
*I will end this this saying, which we all need to remember. When it comes to tropical systems, expect the unexpected. I have seen many a hurricane bring the most brilliant meteorologist to their knees.
The blog is our main way to communicate ideas to you, so keep checking in with us often. The video discussions are anothr excellent way to get a good look at the meteorology behind the storm; you can always see them here:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
There are both Windows Media and Quicktime versions.
Have a great Saturday... Bill Murray and J.B. will have updates on Ernesto today... both of those guys are brilliant writers and have a real passion for getting good information to you, and I am sure thankful they are on our team!
by James Spann
in Tropical Weather
August Weather and a Tropical Storm
August 26, 2006, 7:47 amThe Saturday map discussion video is on the web, and available on iTunes:
Just click on the link above to get the map discussion video in either the .wmv format (Windows Media) or the .mov format (Quicktime). We now offer the video in both formats. You can also subscribe and see it in iTunes at no cost. I usually do the Quicktime movie first, the iTunes second, and the Windows third.
While fairly typical August weather continues across Central Alabama, we are also keeping a wary eye on Tropical Storm Ernesto. Ernesto was located about 245 miles south-southwest of the Dominican Republic moving on a west-northwest course at 15 mph. Ernesto was showing signs of strengthening after fighting through some very strong shear. The strong shear cause the surface pressure center and the convection to become somewhat detached, but it appears now that Ernesto is fighting back from those problems. Convection has increased and the pressure has dropped a bit plus the shear is decreasing so the prognosis looks good for Ernesto to continue strengthening. The National Hurricane Center forecasters are bringing Ernesto to 100 knots by Thursday morning, so Ernesto could become a major hurricane when it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
The track of Ernesto for the next several days seems pretty solid with nearly all computer model guidance clustered close together. However, when the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico after crossing the western end of Cuba, the models begin to diverge in their solutions. The storm will intensify as it gets into the Gulf of Mexico so everyone from Tampa Bay to Brownsville needs to keep up on the latest information for this dangerous storm. The morning GFS model run suggests that a track into the north central Gulf coast is a very real possibility. It is much to early to speculate on an exact landfall position, so I won't. A trough moving across the Central US at mid-week will surely have a strong influence on the future track of Ernesto, so we'll have to watch how that evolves with future model guidance. A recurvature to the north or northeast is certainly a very real possibility. Definitely a stay tuned situation.
Back in Central Alabama, typical August weather continues for several more days. Morning lows will be in the lower 70s with afternoon highs in the lower 90s. We'll see a persistent chance of afternoon showers through Monday. Tuesday will see showers increasing due to a weak cold front approaching the area from the northwest. After mid-week, the forecast for Central Alabama will depend heavily on the track of Ernesto.
Really having a great time camping at Mt. Cheaha. Not doing much of anything and relishing it. My wife, Jane, and I can do nothing with the best of them! I certainly hope you have a great weekend. God bless.
-Brian-
Tropical Storm Ernesto Update - 7:45 a.m.
August 26, 2006, 6:43 am
…Tropical Storm Ernesto Strengthening…
…Poses significant threat to Gulf Coast
LOCATION
15.0N/70.6W or about 455 miles east southeast of Kingston, Jamaica
INTENSITY
Maximum sustained winds 50 mph
Central pressure 997 mb/29.50 inches
Storms is being sheared by an upper low to its west, but Ernesto has survived it so far remains an organized storm. The shear is forecast to lessen and the storms is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Look for a period of rapid intensification, probably while it is south of Cuba and again over the Gulf. We are looking at a very powerful hurricane eventually in the Gulf of Mexico.
MOVEMENT
WNW-15
RECON SCHEDULE
Plane left storm before 5 a.m. CDT this morning. Two flights are scheduled today, providing fixes on the storm every six hours.
WARNINGS
Tropical Storm warning for south coast of Haiti. Tropical Storm watch for Jamaica will be upgraded to warning today. Hurricane watch will be issued later today for Caymans.
FORECAST TRACK
The official NHC track carries it across Jamaica Sunday afternoon and near the Caymans early Monday morning. It then crosses western Cuba during the pre-dawn hours on Monday and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. By early Thursday morning, the official “dot” on the skinny black line is a little under 300 miles south of Biloxi, moving northwest with top winds of 115 mph. But forecasters at the NHC this morning caution that their intensity forecast may be conservative with some of the models indicating it will be much stronger. The $64 billion will be whether a ridge of high pressure is strong enough to deflect the storm to the northwest toward western Louisiana or the upper Texas coast, or a weakens develops allowing the storm to come north or even northeast for a landfall between New Orleans and Panama City. That should come into clearer focus as we go through time.
MODEL COMPARISONS
The GFDL paints a scary picture for the Alabama/Northwest Florida coast. It gradually strengthens the storm through the western Caribbean, becoming a hurricane after Jamaica and over the Caymans, crosses western Cuba and enters the Gulf, turning northward. The model runs through 126 hours, or Wednesday night, and shows the storm 160 miles south of Fort Morgan with a central pressure of 935 millibars, making it a Category Four hurricane. The overnight run of the GFS meanders the storm slowly northward and still has it a couple of hundred miles south of Mobile next Saturday night. I don’t think it has a very good handle on speed, but casts another ominous vote toward a Central Gulf Coast landfall. Last night’s run of the Canadian takes an intensifying storm to just south of the Louisiana coast next Thursday night. The Florida State MM5 an intensifying storm in the South central Gulf Wednesday night. The NOGAPS is the first of a couple of models that are painting a very possible scenario which shows a recurving hurricane heading toward the Florida Panhandle, making landfall around Destin or Panama City Thursday night.
SUMMARY
We have a potentially very dangerous hurricane on our hands, given that it can continue to overcome a hostile atmospheric environment in the short run. But it definitely looks like it will hold together and make it into the Gulf. Then it is increasingly looking like it will affect the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Northwest Florida, but residents all across the Gulf Coast from Texas to Tampa must closely monitor the progress of this storm.
…Poses significant threat to Gulf Coast
LOCATION
15.0N/70.6W or about 455 miles east southeast of Kingston, Jamaica
INTENSITY
Maximum sustained winds 50 mph
Central pressure 997 mb/29.50 inches
Storms is being sheared by an upper low to its west, but Ernesto has survived it so far remains an organized storm. The shear is forecast to lessen and the storms is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday. Look for a period of rapid intensification, probably while it is south of Cuba and again over the Gulf. We are looking at a very powerful hurricane eventually in the Gulf of Mexico.
MOVEMENT
WNW-15
RECON SCHEDULE
Plane left storm before 5 a.m. CDT this morning. Two flights are scheduled today, providing fixes on the storm every six hours.
WARNINGS
Tropical Storm warning for south coast of Haiti. Tropical Storm watch for Jamaica will be upgraded to warning today. Hurricane watch will be issued later today for Caymans.
FORECAST TRACK
The official NHC track carries it across Jamaica Sunday afternoon and near the Caymans early Monday morning. It then crosses western Cuba during the pre-dawn hours on Monday and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. By early Thursday morning, the official “dot” on the skinny black line is a little under 300 miles south of Biloxi, moving northwest with top winds of 115 mph. But forecasters at the NHC this morning caution that their intensity forecast may be conservative with some of the models indicating it will be much stronger. The $64 billion will be whether a ridge of high pressure is strong enough to deflect the storm to the northwest toward western Louisiana or the upper Texas coast, or a weakens develops allowing the storm to come north or even northeast for a landfall between New Orleans and Panama City. That should come into clearer focus as we go through time.
MODEL COMPARISONS
The GFDL paints a scary picture for the Alabama/Northwest Florida coast. It gradually strengthens the storm through the western Caribbean, becoming a hurricane after Jamaica and over the Caymans, crosses western Cuba and enters the Gulf, turning northward. The model runs through 126 hours, or Wednesday night, and shows the storm 160 miles south of Fort Morgan with a central pressure of 935 millibars, making it a Category Four hurricane. The overnight run of the GFS meanders the storm slowly northward and still has it a couple of hundred miles south of Mobile next Saturday night. I don’t think it has a very good handle on speed, but casts another ominous vote toward a Central Gulf Coast landfall. Last night’s run of the Canadian takes an intensifying storm to just south of the Louisiana coast next Thursday night. The Florida State MM5 an intensifying storm in the South central Gulf Wednesday night. The NOGAPS is the first of a couple of models that are painting a very possible scenario which shows a recurving hurricane heading toward the Florida Panhandle, making landfall around Destin or Panama City Thursday night.
SUMMARY
We have a potentially very dangerous hurricane on our hands, given that it can continue to overcome a hostile atmospheric environment in the short run. But it definitely looks like it will hold together and make it into the Gulf. Then it is increasingly looking like it will affect the northern Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Northwest Florida, but residents all across the Gulf Coast from Texas to Tampa must closely monitor the progress of this storm.
by Bill Murray
in Tropical Weather
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