The Winter of 1976-77 had been a brutal one in Buffalo, New York. It was the coldest January ever in Buffalo, as well as the coldest on record for the eastern half of the country. In a city that is known for handling snow well, twenty eight straight days of snow had left thirty inches on the ground and even the hardiest Buffalo residents grumbling.

On this date in 1977, the Great Buffalo Blizzard started like many other snow squalls from Lake Erie. It was Buffalo’s worst blizzard ever, but the twelve inches of snow that fell during the three day storm was not the story. Much more impressive snowfalls have buried the city, including a monstrous seven foot snowfall in five days in December 2001.

But during this storm, strong northwest winds gusting to 60 mph lifted up the snow that was piled on frozen Lake Erie and blasted the city with it. People were trapped wherever they were, in their cars, homes, or offices. Nine people froze to death in their stranded automobiles.

Snow drifts up to twenty five feet high buried homes and buildings and allowed two reindeer from the Buffalo Zoo to walk over their fences. Wind chills dropped to –50F. Damages totaled $250 million. It was the first snowstorm to receive a Federal disaster declaration.

The typically snowy city broke its snow record for any single month with 68.3 inches. Snow eventually fell on forty three consecutive days, also a record.

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

After a look at the 12Z GFS... not much reason to change the ongoing forecast for the weekend. Still looks like the best chance of rain will come from about midnight tomorrow night through 9:00 a.m. Sunday. Amounts of one inch or so are likely, and severe storms look unlikely.

I am beginning to think the sun will pop out Sunday afternoon after the rain, and if that is the case we might approach 70 degrees.

The trailing upper trough comes through Monday, and it might bring a few scattered showers between midnight Sunday night and 6:00 a.m. Monday. Moisture will be very limited and some spots might be dry during that time frame.

Then, a quick shot of cold air rolls in Monday. I think we begin the day in the low to mid 50s, but fall into the 40s by afternoon. Tuesday should be cool and dry with sunshine returning.

LONG RANGE: Again, nothing to show any change in our idea of a colder February. The monster western Canada ridge shows up by February 10, and cold air, perhaps very cold air, floods the eastern two-thirds of the nation.

The GFS continues to show a storm in the February 5-6 time frame which could bring a soaking rain, and maybe some snow to parts of the Deep South. We won't be able to be specific on that system until early next week.

Thanks to the Vestavia Rotary Club for having me today... I sure enjoyed our lunch together. Brian Peters will handle the video discussions over the weekend... my next one comes up Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Have a great weekend and spend some quality time with your family!

* 1 inch is the amount of rain possible in the next 24 hours in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Finally some rain. What a disasterous grass-fire season that area has endured.

* 12 is the number of degrees that I missed this morning's low for Birmingham Airport. You will never see me bragging about hitting a forecast but I do like to be up front explaining misses. Last night was a near impossible situation because of high clouds moving in, and wind issues. Nearby Pinson did drop to 33 which was a lot closer. I should have raised the low to about 35 for an average across the area.

* 27 in Florence and 28 in Fort Payne and Mentone, about the coldest this morning.

* 60 below zero was the final low in the last 24 hours at Beaver, Fort Yukon and Chandalar Lake, Alaska as that state remains locked in an arctic airmass. Chandalar Lake was reporting ice crystalls at the time. When it gets that cold, there is very little moisture in the air. But 60 below will force what remaining moisture there is to condense and form floating ice crystals. If there is sunlight, makes for a pretty sight.

* 51 below was the low at Fairbanks Airport this morning, the coldest weather in seven years. Visibility was 1/2 mile in freezing fog which can leave foilage with a crystal-like glimmer.

* 43 is the number of inches of snow in Anchorage this season, exactly normal.

* 60 was the high in Des Moines yesterday as exceptional mildness rules that area.

* 100 is the number of days in a row that Phoenix has had no rain!

* 101 is the all time record with no rain in my wife's home town (Phoenix) Will today be the day?

CLOSER LOOK AT CHANDALAR LAKE
We have mentioned Chandalar Lake, Alaska a lot lately because of their frigid temperatures. Several people have asked if people live there. The answer is yes, and all year at that. The community of Chandalar Lake is located on the shore of Chandalar Lake about 60 miles north of the Arctic Circle and about 190 miles from Fairbanks. The "normal" January high is -4 and normal low -25 so some of their low temperatures are as much as 35 degrees below normal. They get about 45 inches of snow per year. It is a rugged wilderness area and there are a number of wilderness lodges in the area and some are open all year. There are no roads but plenty of hiking trails. You reach the area with bush pilots from Fairbanks or Coldfoot. (what a neat name) In winter, you can be transported into the area on snow machines or via a friendly team of Alaskan sled dogs. The nearest road is the Dalton highway that follows the Alaska Pipeline north to Prudhoe Bay. The Northern Lights are frequent and awesome.

Now, would you like to go?

Better yet, would you like to live there?

* 3 is the number of cups of coffee I have had so far today. Running 2 cups behind schedule.

Life goes on...whether it is 60 below zero or a sizzling 112 above zero in Alabama. (112 is the all-time high for Alabama at Centreville on September 5, 1925)

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

High clouds moved into Alabama last night and kept temperatures above freezing this morning; Birmingham reports 42 and Tuscaloosa 44 as I write this. Today will be partly sunny with afternoon temperatures reaching the low 60s in most areas. The air near the surface remains bone dry.

THE WEEKEND: The GFS is advertising the main window for rain and thunderstorms from about midnight tomorrow night through 12:00 noon Sunday. No severe weather; the air is too stable and the upper support is too far north. Rain amounts of one-half to one inch look likely during that 12 hour stretch.

The new runs (00Z and 06Z) of the GFS are drier and faster with the trailing upper wave. Showers are still possible Sunday night into early Monday, but amounts now look light and spotty. Best chance of a shower with the trailing wave now actually seems to be from about midnight Sunday night through 6:00 Monday morning. Then, a quick shot of colder air works in here Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Monday might be a day with falling temperatures. We will raise the numbers a little Tuesday afternoon with the models speeding things up a tad.... but Tuesday and Wednesday morning of next week look pretty cold with the potential for a decent freeze.

ALASKA WATCH: Read em and weep:

http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=AK&prodtype=hourly

Fairbanks shows 49 below zero on the hourly observation as I write this. Mercy me.

The big question, of course, is just how much of that cold air moves into the "lower 48" in February. Time will tell, but you have to figure much of the nation will be much colder, generally speaking, next month compared to January. The GFS continues to show the monster western Canada ridge that will tap that cold air... and an interesting southern branch underneath it all.

TODAY: I will be speaking to the Vestavia Hills Rotary Club today... I always enjoying having lunch with Rotarians... they are a great service club. I will be back in the office this afternoon for a final look at the weekend system; the afternoon video should be ready on time by 3:30.